NHL player development seems to always result in more questions than answers. How likely is it for a top pick to pan out? What makes a player a “steal”? Last Word On Hockey will be starting a new series on how to properly develop prospects from all different spots throughout the draft. With forwards drafted out of North American hockey leagues between 2005 and 2015, in the first round, covered, let’s shift to forwards drafted out of Europe.
NHL Player Development Of Top-15 Picks
In the span of 2005 through 2015, there were eight total players selected between 11th and 15th overall in NHL drafts, out of Europe. Of those players, there were three who made their first NHL impacts (15+ NHL games played in a single season) after just one year of development following the draft (DY+2). Those three players were Anze Kopitar, Alexander Wennberg, and Jiri Tlusty. Today, we will focus on Tlusty.
In these pieces, Last Word will be using Even-Strength Offence Goals Above Replacement (EVO), Even-Strength Defence Goals Above Replacement (EVD), Wins Above Replacement (WAR) and Goals Above Replacement (GAR). All those analytics come from Evolving-Hockey (paid subscription required).
NHL Player Development Of Jiri Tlusty
Jiri Tlusty, drafted 13th overall in the 2006 NHL draft by the Toronto Maple Leafs, came out of the HC Kladno organization in Czechia. In his DY-1 season, he primarily played in the U20 Czech league with Kladno. There, he scored 15 goals and 12 assists for 27 points in 42 games, for 0.643 points per game. That ranked fifth amongst the aforementioned eight forwards in DY-1 production. The following season, he was promoted to the top Czech men’s league with Kladno. There, he scored seven goals and 10 total points across 44 games, for 0.227 points per game. That ranked seventh out of those same eight players in DY production.
After being drafted, Tlusty would come overseas to play a season in the OHL with the Soo Greyhounds. In his first North American season, he would score 13 goals and 21 assists for 34 points in 37 games, for 0.919 points per game. That ranked first amongst those same eight forwards in DY+1 production.
How Tlusty Was Used
In his first professional season in North America, Tlusty would play mostly in the NHL. Meanwhile, he played 14 AHL games with the Toronto Marlies, the affiliates of the Maple Leafs. In those 14 games, he scored seven goals and 11 assists for 18 points, a decent statline for a rookie. At the NHL level, he would draw into 58 games, while averaging 10:55 time on ice per game. With the bottom-six role, he would score 10 goals and 16 total points. His raw stats were unimpressive, but his analytics were even more so. His EVO (0.0) was the best analytic of the four used, and it was a replacement-level score. Meanwhile, his EVD (-1.3) was poor, but about what one would expect from a rookie. Overall, however, his WAR (-0.2) and GAR (-1.3) were both poor.
After a disappointing rookie year in the NHL, Tlusty would spend more time in the AHL than the NHL in year two. In total, he played 66 AHL games, scoring 25 goals and 41 assists for 66 points, being a point-per-game once again in the minors. However, he would see just 14 games at the NHL level, where he averaged 12:42 per game. While he averaged almost two minutes more per game, it was a small stint, and he only managed four assists. His EVO (-1.0) got worse, but his EVD (0.4) did improve. As for his WAR (-0.1) and GAR (-0.4), he was still a below replacement-level player.
Year Three Trade Helps Jiri Tlusty Take Next (Small) Step
In year three, Tlusty would be traded after two NHL games and 19 AHL games with the Leafs that season. He would be sent to the Carolina Hurricanes, where he would play 18 NHL games and 20 AHL games. In total, across 39 AHL games, he scored 14 goals and 16 assists for 30 points. Meanwhile, he combined for 20 NHL games, where he averaged 12:33 per game, similar to his last season. With that role, he would score one goal and five assists for six points, all with the Hurricanes. Analytically, he would go on to have his best season yet. His EVO (0.8) reached a new high, while his EVD (-0.2) middled out to about replacement-level. His WAR (0.0) and GAR (0.2) finally were no longer below replacement-level, though neither were very impressive.
After that third season, Tlusty would play parts of five seasons with the Hurricanes (2009-10 through 2014-15). In that span, he scored 75 goals and 64 assists for 139 points in 304 games, becoming a pretty solid NHL player. He would be traded mid-way through the 2014-15 season by the Hurricanes to the Winnipeg Jets, where he finished out the season with eight points in 20 games. His final NHL season came in 2015-16, where he played 30 games as a member of the New Jersey Devils, scoring four total points. His final professional season came in 2016-17, when he went to play in Finland for Karpat, scoring five points in 14 games.
Hindsight On Jiri Tlusty’s Draft Selection
Tlusty’s player development path was not a great one. He barely got time early on in his career, and it looked as though he would be a career-AHLer. However, the change of scenery with the Hurricanes saved his career, though it prevented him from ever realizing his true potential of being a top-15 draft selection. Other players who were drafted in 2006, following the Tlusty selection, were Michael Grabner (14th overall), Trevor Lewis (17th), Chris Stewart (18th), Claude Giroux (22nd), Patrik Berglund (25th), and Nick Foligno (28th).
While the draft class as, evidently, not a strong one following the Tlusty selection, it’s clear there were some better options available. Now, would those players have managed to have the same amount of success as they did in their respective careers if they had the same start as Tlusty? That’s up for debate. But it’s clear that the Maple Leafs left some good players on the board, and maybe even a trade back option, back in 2006.
Raw stats from Elite Prospects and Hockey-Reference
Main Photo: Marc DesRosiers-USA TODAY Sports
