NHL player development seems to always result in more questions than answers. How likely is it for a top pick to pan out? What makes a player a “steal”? Last Word On Hockey will be starting a new series on how to properly develop prospects from all different spots throughout the draft. With forwards drafted out of North American hockey leagues between 2005 and 2015, in the first round, covered, let’s shift to forwards drafted out of Europe.
NHL Player Development Of Top-15 Picks
In the span of 2005 through 2015, there were eight total players selected between 11th and 15th overall in NHL drafts, out of Europe. Of those players, there were three who made their first NHL impacts (15+ NHL games played in a single season) after just one year of development following the draft (DY+2). Those three players were Anze Kopitar, Alexander Wennberg, and Jiri Tlusty. Today, we will focus on Kopitar and Wennberg.
In these pieces, Last Word will be using Even-Strength Offence Goals Above Replacement (EVO), Even-Strength Defence Goals Above Replacement (EVD), Wins Above Replacement (WAR) and Goals Above Replacement (GAR). All those analytics come from Evolving-Hockey (paid subscription required).
NHL Player Development Of Anze Kopitar
Kopitar, drafted 11th overall by the Los Angeles Kings in the 2005 NHL draft, came out of the Sodertalje SK organization in Sweden. In his DY-1 season, Kopitar primarily played in Slovenia with HK Kranjska Gora’s men’s club. There, he scored 14 goals and 11 assists for 25 points in 21 games, for 1.19 points per game. That ranked first amongst the aforementioned eight forwards in DY-1 production. The following season, joining Sodertalje, he played primarily in the J20 SuperElit league. There, he scored 28 goals and 21 assists for 49 points in 30 games, for 1.633 points per game. That again ranked first amongst those same eight players in DY production.
After being drafted, Kopitar would play one more season in Sweden before coming overseas to play in the NHL. This time, he would play at the top men’s Swedish league, the Elitserien, with Sodertalje. There, he scored eight goals and 12 assists for 20 points in 47 games, for 0.426 points per game. That ranked fifth amongst those same eight forwards in DY+1 production.
How Kopitar Was Used
Coming to North America for the first time in his career, Kopitar would become a full-time NHL player for the Kings. He would play 72 games, averaging 20:32 time on ice per game, an impressively large role for a rookie. With that role, he absolutely did not disappoint, with 20 goals and 41 assists for 61 points. Unfortunately, due to that season being played in 2006-07, the analytics that these development pieces use were not being tracked yet, so that data couldn’t paint a bigger picture.
The following season, Kopitar would play in all 82 games, and would average 20:41 per game, almost exactly the same role he played as a rookie. With more games, his production increased. He scored 32 goals and 45 assists for 77 points, another incredible season. Analytically, he was just as dominant as he appeared. His GAR (5.1) was really strong, while his EVD (-2.0) left a bit to be desired. However, his WAR (2.7) and GAR (14.9) bordered on elite status.
Kopitar Becomes Assistant Captain, Production Continues
In his third NHL season, Kopitar would see a new letter on his Kings jersey, as he was named the assistant captain, despite being one of the younger guys. Again playing in 82 games, he would average 20:27 per game, again very similar to his first two seasons. His production slipped a bit, but still remained strong. He scored 27 goals and 39 assists for 66 points. However, his analytics were better. His EVO (8.4) took a step forward despite the drop in raw stats, and his EVD (2.6) was miles better. That led to his WAR (2.9) and GAR (16.1) to continue creeping towards elite status.
Following that third season in 2008-09, Kopitar is still a major piece of the Kings roster. With him, the Kings went on to win not only their first Stanley Cup, but they would go back for a second. Since that third season, outside of the Stanley Cups, he would win the Selke Trophy twice (2015-16, 2017-18), the Lady Byng Trophy (2015-16) and the Mark Messier Leadership Award (2021-22). In that span, he recorded 312 goals and 619 assists for 931 points in 1051 games, cementing himself as a Kings legend. This season, he has recorded 26 goals and 42 assists for 68 points in 77 games, not showing much in the form of regression. Safe to say that Kopitar’s NHL player development went very, very well.
NHL Player Development Of Alexander Wennberg
Wennberg, drafted 14th overall by the Columbus Blue Jackets in the 2013 NHL draft, came out of the Djurgardens IF organization in Sweden. In his DY-1 season, he primarily played in the J20 SuperElit league with Djurgardens. There, he scored one goal and 18 assists for 19 points in 42 games, for 0.452 points per game. That ranked sixth amongst the aforementioned eight forwards in DY-1 production. The following season, he would primarily play in the Allsvenskan with Djurgardens, which is the Swedish equivalent of the AHL, in a sense. There, he scored 14 goals and 18 assists for 32 points in 46 games, for 0.696 points per game. That ranked fourth amongst those same eight forwards in DY production.
After being drafted, Wennberg would remain in Sweden for one more season before joining the NHL level. In that final season, he would play for Frolunda HC at the top Swedish level, the SHL. There, he would score 16 goals and five assists for 21 points in 50 games, for 0.42 points per game. That ranked sixth amongst those same eight forwards in DY+1 production.
How Wennberg Was Used
In his first North American season, Wennberg would see time at both the NHL and AHL levels. Playing just six games with the Blue Jackets AHL affiliates, the Springfield Falcons, he scored three total points. He played the rest of the year in the NHL, in the form of 68 games, while averaging 15:37 per game. With the equivalent of a middle-six role, Wennberg potted four goals and 16 assists for 20 points. Analytically, he could be considered a below replacement-level player, however. His EVO (-3.1) was very bad, while his EVD (0.0) was the best analytic, and impressive for a rookie. With the poor even-strength offensive impacts, Wennberg’s WAR (-0.5) and GAR (-2.6) were both below replacement-level.
After what appeared to be a tough rookie season, Wennberg would play full-time in the NHL in year two. Playing 69 total games with Columbus, he would average 15:52 per game, similar to his rookie year. Given a second chance to impress, Wennberg went on to score eight goals and 32 assists for 40 points, doubling his rookie season output. His underlying numbers also, for the most part, greatly improved. His EVO (5.1) was dramatically better, while his EVD (-0.8) was the only number that took a step back. With the overall step up, however, his WAR (2.0) and GAR (10.4) also improved in a massive way.
Wennberg Continues To Impress In Year Three
After an impressive year three, Wennberg would play 80 games and average 18:23 per game, a big step up from the previous two seasons. With that, he would record 13 goals and 46 assists for 59 points, almost another 20-point increase from the previous season. Analytically, he was far more balanced all-around, making him a better player. His EVO (4.8) dropped slightly, but his EVD (1.4) became very solid in the process. Meanwhile, his WAR (2.3) and GAR (12.4) both took another step forward.
Following that third NHL season in 2016-17, Wennberg would play three more seasons with the Blue Jackets. In that span, he scored 15 goals and 67 assists for 82 points in 198 games, never surpassing 35 points in a single season. With the struggle over those three years, he joined the Florida Panthers for the 2020-21 season, where he scored 17 goals and 12 assists for 29 points in just 56 games. Wennberg would then be selected by the Seattle Kraken in the expansion draft, joining them for the 2021-22 season. Over the last two seasons, counting this one, he has scored 24 goals and 49 assists for 73 points in 156 games, and counting. This season alone, he has 13 goals and 23 assists for 36 points in 76 games.
Hindsight On Wennberg’s NHL Player Development
After an impressive second and third season, what went wrong? Why has he failed to surpass 37 points in the six seasons that followed? He’s averaged over 17 minutes per game in those six seasons, so ice time can’t be deemed the problem. Did Wennberg overachieve, perhaps, in his second and third seasons? It’s hard to tell. But the Blue Jackets absolutely put him in a position to succeed, and he did early on. It seems the player could not recapture the magic of those early years. But, the NHL player development path for Wennberg is the envy of players who were given much less time to prove themselves.
Raw stats from Elite Prospects and Hockey-Reference
Main Photo: Bob Frid-USA TODAY Sports
