Welcome back to another day of NHL Predictions. Each day, Last Word on Hockey takes a look at the games that are happening and gives our predictions for each one, breaking down head-to-head and other factors that may play in. We also have a featured game of the day, which is considered must-watch TV. Today’s featured game is the Ottawa Senators vs Boston Bruins.
NHL Predictions
Carolina Hurricanes vs New York Rangers
Head-to-Head: Hurricanes 0-2 Rangers
It’s the opening game of NHL Predictions. Carolina and New York begin their home and home to finish the season series, with the Rangers currently ahead by two games. To some degree, the Hurricanes have been weaker in March, with six wins in their last 10, but playing at a high quality regardless, especially considering their injury situation with Andrei Svechnikov and Max Pacioretty out. Aside from stellar play from the likes of Sebastian Aho and Martin Necas this season, a uniquely surprising season performance not noted often lies in Brady Skjei‘s 15-goal year from the back end, collecting three of those and five total points in his last five games.
The Rangers, six points back of Carolina, are not likely to, but have the opportunity to, put pressure on the Metropolitan opponents ahead of them in the standings. New York has played particularly exceptionally, winning four straight including their last two games by a combined score of 13-0 between 6-0 and 7-0 wins against Pittsburgh Penguins and Nashville Predators respectively. After scoring six against the Penguins, the Rangers scored six in the first period alone against the Predators, with defender K’Andre Miller potting in four points in that same period, setting a franchise record for a defender. New York’s top-end talent such as Mika Zibanejad, Artemi Panarin, and Adam Fox continue to drive the team, with improved depth and systematic adaptation allowing them to perform better in front of Igor Shesterkin (especially even strength).
Tonight serves as an opportunity to get a glimpse of the eagerness of both of these teams as they are each likely to make the postseason, but are still looking for the best spot possible in the standings.
Prediction: 4-3 Hurricanes (OT)
Columbus Blue Jackets vs Washington Capitals
Head-to-Head: Blue Jackets 0-3 Capitals
Washington carries the limping, frightened Blue Jackets into their arena for the final time this season. The first three games of this season’s series all went to the Capitals, and considering the condition, the tanking Blue Jackets are in (perhaps with some purpose), it would be quite a shock for that to change tonight. Defensive structures in Ohio resemble that of a self-made patio, with the team allowing four goals or more in every game of the month, including back-to-back losses in which they’ve given up seven in each game. Their expected goals against per 60 of 2.98 ranks 29th in the NHL at 5v5 play (Evolving-Hockey).
Washington, while also out of the playoff picture (by six points), is not as poor as their fellow Metropolitan opponents tonight, but still enters the game with losses in all but two of their last five and four in their last 10. In terms of brighter spots on the lineup that do not involve Alex Ovechkin‘s goal-record chasing, Dylan Strome and Evgeny Kuznetsov have each hit 50 points on the season, with Strome’s current point total of 52 a career-high centring Ovechkin and Conor Sheary. Admittedly, productive bright spots are not very large from this point. A player to continue to watch for lies in Rasmus Sandin, who has adapted to a large role fairly well, but appears to need some adjustments to a defensive play against the higher-quality competition.
Prediction: 4-0 Capitals
Florida Panthers vs Philadelphia Flyers
Head-to-Head: Panthers 1-1 Flyers
While these teams are facing off for the final time this season, they have not played each other since they faced off twice in the opening 14 days of the season back in October. Quite a bit has changed since this month, but the performance of these two teams in context including their expectations has been quite different. For the Panthers, the magnitude of this game (as every game from this point) is much larger than the team surely would have hoped for at the beginning of the season, but the Panthers have curbed these struggles and found themselves back in a playoff position, taking over the Penguins in the final wild-card spot with a 5-2 win counteracting that of Pittsburgh 2-1 loss to Ottawa. Matthew Tkachuk in particular has been absurd, with 14 points in his last five games.
Philadelphia’s main purpose at this point in this season will be to dent the hopes of teams such as Florida on mere pride. Another smaller purpose can be a focus on younger players, such as Owen Tippett who has broken out to a 20-plus goal season, with three of those and another two assists in his last five games. In terms of the entire team, Travis Konency and Kevin Hayes each have 50 points on the season, with Konency approaching 30 goals for the first time in his career. Expected goaltenders for the game feature Alex Lyon for the Panthers and Carter Hart for the Flyers.
Prediction: 4-2 Panthers
Minnesota Wild vs New Jersey Devils
Head-to-Head: Wild 1-0 Devils
New Jersey’s electric, youthful offence gets one of its larger tests this season (albeit, they have succeeded in many “tests” so far) in taking on one of the best defensive teams in the league in Minnesota. In their first match-up back in February, Minnesota pulled out a shootout win in a fairly tight 3-2 affair at Xcel Energy Center. It’s one of the tastier games in NHL predictions.
Both teams come into the game with hat-trick performances from stars in their previous game; Matthew Boldy and Jesper Bratt both potted three goals on Sunday. Boldy in particular rides a nearly two-point-per-game stretch in his last five, continuing a very stellar season and serving quite well in the absence of Kirill Kaprizov so far. Despite the injuries to the aforementioned Kaprizov beside Marcus Foligno and Jonas Brodin, Minnesota has played stellar, with their 14-game point streak ending on Saturday but followed up with a win the next night.
New Jersey, five wins from the always coveted 50-win season, are just a short stretch away from overtaking Carolina atop of the Metropolitan Division standings (something the Devils have done briefly this month). After a 3-0 win against the Hurricanes, three straight losses before their rebound on Sunday have stagnated the team somewhat, but the Devils do not typically let poor play linger. A team with four 30-goal scorers, two players on the face for 50 or more assists, and a team that consistently generates high-quality offence 5v5 (5th placed expected goals for per 60 per Evolving-Hockey) will only be stymied for so long.
Prediction: 4-3 Devils (OT)
Nashville Predators vs Buffalo Sabres
Head-to-Head: Predators 0-0 Sabres
Nashville, with their season continually on the line in crucial games, has been slammed with injuries, including that to their top star in Roman Josi on top of currently existing ones to players such as Filip Forsberg. Unfortunately for the Predators, they have lost three straight and coming off a 7-0 loss in their most recent game to the New York Rangers. Coincidentally, the Buffalo Sabres are also coming off a 7-0 blanking on Sunday, coming from the hands of the Bruins.
Buffalo, entering the month with a legitimate chance of playing playoff hockey this season, has completely imploded, giving up seven goals to Boston twice and even losing 10-4 to Dallas within this month. While not entirely out, their poor stretch just indicates the team is not ready, and will likely miss for the 12th straight season.
Both teams come into this game rattled at a higher tier. In terms of this game exclusively, we give the Sabres the edge by a healthy plate compared to Nashville.
Prediction: 5-3 Sabres
Ottawa Senators vs Boston Bruins
Head-to-Head: Senators 2-1 Bruins
This is tonight’s featured game in NHL Predictions. Ottawa comes into the night off of an insane 2-1 win over the Penguins, featuring the team struggling against the Penguins offence but riding the wave of Dylan Ferguson‘s goaltending, who won his first-career game in his second start with 48 saves on 49 shots. Interestingly, Ottawa took the first two games of the season series between these two Atlantic Division opponents, including 7-5 and 3-2 wins in the 2022 half of the season before Boston took the most recent match just over one month ago from today. Tim Stutzle has been exceptional as of late, with 14 points in his last 10 in a monster 78-point campaign in 66 games, including 35 goals and leading the team in all basic productive categories.
Meanwhile, Boston has picked up another three straight wins, with Jeremy Swayman posting a shutout in two of them, highlighting the absurdity of Boston’s goaltending this season. For reference, Linus Ullmark has surpassed 2011 Tim Thomas in Bruins goals saved above expected leaders since the stat was first tracked in 2008 (Evolving Hockey), while Swayman ranks sixth. In terms of play in front of them, David Pastrnak is officially on 50-goal watch, now lying just two shy of the accolade on top of his previous career high last set in 2019-20 (in a season in which he would have likely hit 50-goals without the stoppage for the pandemic). Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron have combined twice in the last two games, with the former notching four assists between the two games.
Prediction: 5-3 Bruins
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens
Head-to-Head: Lightning 3-0 Canadiens
In our last game of NHL Predictions. Tampa Bay enters the Bell Centre to play Montreal for the second time in four days looking to take easy advantage of the battered Canadiens side whose 9-5 loss to Florida is still fairly fresh. For the Canadiens, any resistance on the heels of Nick Suzuki will best push through what has become an incredibly testing year injury-wise for the team. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay continues to play quality but concerning, inconsistent hockey in March, having lost six games this month already. A bright spot for the Lightning serves in Brandon Hagel, who has resurged from poor play with the team last season to elite play this season. He is three goals shy of 30, a clear career high, collecting three of his 27 as of today against Montreal on March 18th in that 5-3 win at home for the team.
Tampa Bay sits three points behind Toronto for home ice in the first round of the postseason, with two extra games played and 11 remaining on the season entirely. Montreal can try to spoil, but we predict they are simply shoved out of the way.
Prediction: 6-1 Lighting
Main photo by: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports
