Five Potential Trade Targets to Improve Ottawa Senators Defence

As we approach the trade deadline, the Ottawa Senators will consider a trading partner to acquire a top-four defenceman to pair with Thomas Chabot. Here we analyze some of Chabot’s partners throughout his career. Next, a comparison with some of their styles to the available defenceman in the market. Once a decision on who would be a good fit, then it needs to be determined if there is a move there to make. One factor to consider is re-signing Alex DeBrincat, which could potentially limit the available cap space.

The Search for a Top-Four Partner for Thomas Chabot

Throughout Thomas Chabot’s career, he has had to carry a big chunk of the proverbial defensive weight. Thus far he has a current average TOI rate this season of 25:45. If you look at his six full NHL seasons, this will rank as his fourth-highest total. He has played with many different defence partners. Of the partners he has played with, here are the top three:

So, not only has Chabot played a lot, he has been responsible for playing with partners not accustomed to a top-line role. Since being acquired from the Toronto Maple Leafs, Nikita Zaitsev has been paired with Chabot every year. For example, Nikita Zaitsev sits at a total CF% Relative of -12.0 with the Senators. Hardly able to consider such a rating suitable for a top-line defenceman. However, with regards to playing with stars, in his rookie season, Chabot did play a lot with Erik Karlsson. That season Karlsson experienced a bit of a negative regression in his output recording nine goals, 53 assists, for 62 points, in 71 games. That had been his lowest point total in a full season, since his second NHL season when he tallied 45 points.

Some Partners Who Have Found Success in the Past

Here is a look at Chabot’s best xGOALS% seasons where the pairing played a minimum of 150 minutes together. As we see he has played a lot with Nikita Zaitsev, and the numbers are none too impressive. In addition, the year with Karlsson left a lot to be desired. Conversely, if we focus on the positive seasons, we do see some similarities in the players. The names include Artem Zub, Cody Ceci, and Dylan DeMelo. Each of these three defencemen are right-hand shot, reliably defensively, and can win puck battles in the corners.

A Look at Thomas Chabot’s 2022-23 Season Statistically

Granted that Chabot may be having an off year. He has struggled at times with turnovers that resulted in costly goals against. Therefore, he has received some criticism from the fanbase. However, some of his statistics do show positive signs. He has 8 goals and 22 assists for 30 points in 49 games. His CF% Rel is above his career average of 10.0 at a respectable 10.4. This rating is attributed to his work on the power play, as it does dip to 0.4 at even strength. That number is well below his career average of 3.7. Furthermore, one statistic that summarizes his and the team’s as a whole season might be the defensive point share. Here are some players’ stats from around the league, not surprising that Jake Sanderson is doing well. In contrast, having your best players so low league-wide is a reason for concern.

Now to investigate the options available for the Ottawa Senators organization in finding the ideal trade partner. There has been speculation for a while that the Senators have been seeking a defenceman to help on the right side. It makes sense to bring in a right shot. Moreover, they want to bring in someone who is guaranteed to make an impact. They are seeking a game-breaker. Of course, the difficulty is in the available cap space. So, if they target a certain player, it might be difficult to achieve without tapping into the prospect reservoir.

Number One Fit: Noah Dobson

Of all the players discussed here, Dobson definitely is the most of a fantasy. At 23 years old, the Summerside, PEI native is a force to be reckoned with. He stands 6’4” and has put up 11 goals, and 24 assists for 35 points in 55 games played this season. He also boasts a CF% Rel of 12.3 on the year. All signs point him to pair perfect with Chabot and have a development curve aligned with the Sens youthful core.

However, the problem with Dobson would be in convincing General Manager Lou Lamoriello to part ways with the young budding star. Dobson signed what was like a bridge deal at the time in August 2022. He is set to make $4 M a year until the conclusion of the 2024-25 campaign. Trying to close a deal like this for Pierre Dorion, would involve prospects and likely be too steep of a price. Besides, Lamoriello has not appeared to have shown any interest in moving Dobson. So, even though Noah Dobson may be the ideal partner for Chabot, the Islanders may not be the most suitable trading partner for the Ottawa Senators.

Reality Check at the Top of the Board: Sean Durzi

Based on some recent discussions, it seems like there is potential for the Los Angeles Kings to be a trade partner of the Ottawa Senators. Names like Nikita Zaitsev and Cam Talbot have been mentioned. Of the Kings assets available, Sean Durzi would be highly coveted by the Senators. The 24-year-old is currently in only his second full NHL season. After a respectable 27 points in 64 games last year, he is backing it up with 29 points through 54 this season. He has solid DPS and CF% Rel numbers, 1.5 and 2.1, respectively. Another perhaps more impressive statistic is an Expected +/- of 3.2.

All great numbers for a young defenceman, and you would have to think would only increase playing alongside Chabot. He carries a cap hit of only $1.7 M to the end of next season. It would seem like he would fit a similar mold to a player like Dylan DeMelo, who Chabot had success with previously. One reason this move might make the most sense is that the Senators should not have to give up much in terms of prospects. Los Angeles does seem to be a possible trade ally, even with other pieces possible such as Matt Roy or Sean Walker.

The Steady Force of the List: Mattias Ekholm

It is known that the career Nashville Predator rearguard is the source of trade rumours. At just over $6 M a year cap hit, he is at the high end for what the Senators can afford. Aside from the price tag, he offers many intangibles. The 12-year NHL veteran would bring experience and reliability to the defence group. His skill set is very desirable. Ekholm is a good passer, five times eclipsing 24 assists in a season. In addition, he is a strong skater, and he can share the load with a career average TOI of 21:48. Lastly, what makes Ekholm attractive is his responsible defensive play. This season he currently has a DPS of 2.5, which is the lowest since his rookie season. Also, he is a great decision-maker and limits turnovers. In fact, in 2019-20, he had more takeaways than giveaways, 51 and 50, respectively.

The Underrated Selection: Damon Severson

One reason Damon Severson might be an ideal selection is he might come at a bargain. Severson is coming off a career year. He recorded a tie with a career-high in goals, 11, and his assists, 35, and points, 46, were both career highs. In contrast, this year his numbers are down, playing over 3 minutes less a game. This is probably more so due to the rise of the players around him, as opposed to a drop in his play. Last year saw Severson paired with Jonas Siegenthaler successfully, but this year Siegenthaler plays with Dougie Hamilton regularly. Severson has been playing with Brendan Smith and Kevin Bahl this season, neither of which has helped elevate one another’s play. Furthermore, Severson still has a decent DPS at 2.4. He is a right-hand shot, and his nine years of NHL service would help the Senators experience on the blue line.

A Potential Match with Chabot: Connor Murphy

Connor Murphy might not be the flashiest of names, although he might just be the best fit to play alongside Thomas Chabot. According to hockey-referece.com’s similarity scores, Murphy scores well with a former partner of Chabot, Dylan DeMelo. The similarity scores are based on career ratings for adjusted point shares. We have been using DPS as a metric here to discuss defensive acumen. Case in point, Murphy has a DPS of 2.7 this year, pretty good on a poor Chicago Blackhawk team. In addition, Murphy is 6’4” and can play a physical role. These attributes would match well with Chabot’s play. Another interesting point is Murphy does not turn the puck over a great deal. This season he has recorded 23 takeaways compared to just 29 giveaways. His price tag is manageable, maybe he is the diamond in the rough the Senators seek.

The Other Option: Look Within

If bringing someone in just does not feel like the right fit, the Senators can take solace in their player development. There are two young right-hand D looking to make their mark in Jacob Bernard-Docker and Lassi Thomson. Maybe neither is suited for a top pairing but should develop into a third-pairing type of guy. However, the big prospect everyone in the organization has their eye on is 6’4” Tyler Kleven. He has star appeal, playing for Team USA at the World Junior Championship in 2021-22. Additionally, he is a physical presence and is currently wrapping up his junior season at the University of North Dakota. UND has been a breeding ground for the Senators, with Bernard-Docker, Jake Sanderson, and Shane Pinto recently attending. Kleven is going to look to make an impact on the Senators out of camp in 2023-24, so maybe he can provide the assurance they seek.

Some Final Thoughts on Potential Ottawa Senators Trade

One thing is for sure, the Ottawa Senators do have some options in their search for a trading partner. The thought process is that they want to re-sign Alex DeBrincat in the off-season, which would tie up money available for a top defenceman. However, it is the consensus they need to bolster their top-four defenceman. It is clear that they cannot afford to make a poor decision due to the lack of salary cap space.

Main photo: Wendell Cruz – USA TODAY Sports