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NHL player development seems to always result in more questions than answers. How likely is it for a top pick to pan out? What makes a player a “steal”? Last Word On Hockey will be starting a new series on how to properly develop prospects from all different spots throughout the draft. This week’s piece involves draft picks in the back half of the first round and how they were used early in their careers.
NHL Player Development Of First-Round Picks
In the span of 2005 through 2015, there were 84 total selections made between 16th overall and 30th overall on forwards playing in North America. Looking at all 84 forwards, they were split into different categories. Those categories were “Forwards Deemed NHL-Ready and Brought In Immediately When Ready,” “Forwards Near NHL-Ready and Brought In Immediately When Near-Ready,” “Forwards Rushed Slightly,” “Forwards Rushed,” “Forwards Forced,” “A Little Patience,” “Patience,” and “Too Much Patience.”
There were six forwards who fell into the sixth category, “patience,” on the list. Of those six players, three made their NHL impacts in their DY+4 seasons. Those players were Chris Kreider, Anthony Mantha and Nikolay Goldobin. Today, let’s look at Goldobin.
In this piece, we will be using stats from eliteprospects (raw stats) and hockey-reference (ice time). Additionally, the analytics we are using are as follows: even-strength offence goals above replacement (EVO), even-strength defence goals above replacement (EVD), wins above replacement (WAR) and goals above replacement (GAR). Those analytics are from evolving-hockey (subscription required).
NHL Player Development Of Nikolay Goldobin
Goldobin, drafted 27th overall in the 2014 NHL draft by the San Jose Sharks, came out of the OHL’s Sarnia Sting organization. His DY-1 season was spent as a rookie in the OHL with Sarnia, where he scored 30 goals and 38 assists for 68 points in 68 games, for exactly one point per game. That pace ranks 26th amongst the aforementioned 84 forwards in DY-1 production. The following season, he would play 67 games, and scored 38 goals and 56 assists for 94 points, for 1.403 points per game. That ranked 20th amongst those same 84 forwards in DY production. After being selected at the tail end of the first round, Goldobin would play one season in inland (Liiga) due to the NHL lock-out, then two AHL seasons, before making his NHL impact.
In that lone season in Liiga, he played for HIFK. With them, he scored 11 goals and 10 assists for 21 points in 38 games, for 0.553 points per game. That ranked 72nd amongst the 82 forwards still outside of the NHL in DY+1 production. Joining the Sharks’ AHL team, the Worcester Sharks, he scored 21 goals and 23 assists for 44 points in 60 games, for 0.733 points per game. That ranked 50th amongst the 70 forwards still outside the NHL in DY+2 production.
Finally, in his second AHL season, Goldobin would score 19 goals and 26 assists for 45 points in 49 games, split between the Sharks AHL team and the Vancouver Canucks affiliates, the Utica Comets. That was good for 0.918 points per game, ranking sixth amongst the 46 forwards still outside of the NHL in DY+3 production.
How Nikolay Goldobin Was Used
Nikolay Goldobin, finally, would get his first shot at the NHL with the Canucks. In his first true chance, he would still split between the AHL and NHL. He would play 30 games with Utica, where he scored nine goals and 22 assists for 31 points, earning a longer look in the NHL. With Vancouver, Goldobin scored eight goals and six assists for 14 points in 38 games. Not an eye-opening stat line, but not bad either. Especially considering he played just 12:20 time on ice per game. Looking at the advanced stats, it didn’t paint a much better story. His EVO (1.6) was the only analytic above replacement value. His EVD (-3.0) would tank his WAR (-0.3) and GAR (-1.5) to below replacement level.
The following season, Goldobin would become a full-time NHLer. He played 63 games, averaging 14:59 per game, a big step up from his rookie year. With that, his production also improved to the tune of seven goals and 20 assists for 27 points. But his analytics didn’t necessarily show that big of an improvement. His EVO (0.8) dropped, while his EVD (-1.7) improved, but remained below replacement level. Overall, his WAR (0) and GAR (0.3) were essentially at replacement level. Goldobin did not push the needle enough with his underlying stats.
Goldobin Loses Favour In Vancouver, Stays In AHL
In his third NHL season, Nikolay Goldobin would play just one single game against 51 games played down in the AHL. In his 51 AHL games, he would score 19 goals and 31 assists for 50 points in 51 games, a solid output. But in his lone NHL game, he played 8:37 of ice time and did not record a single point. Following this season, in 2019-20, Goldobin would leave for Russia, his native country. He still plays in the KHL today.
Since joining the KHL, Goldobin has played 132 games and counting. He has scored 38 goals and 51 assists for 89 points. It’s clear that Goldobin did not pan out in the end. He was given a full season with the Canucks after a shaky rookie year, could not prove himself, and then lost out of favour.
It did not help that he wasn’t exactly put in the best spots to succeed either, although it isn’t anyone’s fault. Coming from Russia and playing two seasons in junior is not easy. Then going back to Europe (Finland) because of a lock-out set him back as well. Then he was thrust into a role at the professional level (AHL) for two years. Sure, he was never good enough to stick. But dealing with the constant moving from league to league, plus a trade at the NHL level, is hard to overcome for any player, let alone a struggling one.
Hindsight Is 20/20
Looking back at who was taken after Nikolay Goldobin, there weren’t egregious misses. But, Adrian Kempe (29th overall) was taken two picks later. He has 222 career points in 443 games, thus far. Brendan Lemieux (31st) and Ivan Barbashev (33rd) also have had more success at the NHL level. Not to mention the players they missed, but there were red flags in Goldobin’s game at the junior level. There were questions about his effort levels on the ice and his consistency in the offensive end. Additionally, his defensive zone abilities were lacking. Meanwhile, Kempe was described as someone who never stopped skating and tried out-working everyone on the ice. Kempe was also more refined defensively.
Should the Sharks have done better on draft day? Sure, especially looking back. But they didn’t miss out on any superstars at that range. Plus, Nikolay Goldobin didn’t have issues translating his overall offensive production to the smaller North American rinks, considering he posted above a point per game in his OHL seasons. But that consistency and low effort levels did come back to haunt him a bit.
Junior league stats via Elite Prospects, NHL stats via Hockey Reference, NHL analytics via Evolving Hockey
