The Tampa Bay Lightning have used the trade deadline to make some big moves in the past. It started with the acquisitions of Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow in 2020. Then the following season they added David Savard for defensive depth. Finally, last season, they added Brandon Hagel and Nick Paul. Those three consecutive deadline additions led to three consecutive Stanley Cup finals appearances, including two Cup wins. Will they make it four straight additions, to chase their fourth straight Cup final appearance?
Top Tampa Bay Lightning Trade Targets – Defencemen
Recently, we looked at the top forwards who the Lightning could target. One of those options was Andrei Kuzmenko, whom the Vancouver Canucks recently extended. That wiped him off the slate of options. However, this is not about forwards. This time, we will look at the potential defensemen the Tampa Bay Lightning could add at this year’s deadline.
As mentioned in the last piece, Cal Foote has fallen out of favour amongst many fans. Additionally, the coaching staff seems to have gone a different path, with guys like Savard, Zach Bogosian, Ian Cole, Haydn Fleury, Philippe Myers and Nick Perbix being brought in and playing more than, or as much as, Foote over the years. Add to that the fact that Myers was sent down to the AHL, Cole has not been particularly good and neither has Fleury, plus Perbix has a general lack of experience that Tampa tends to prefer, and it’s reasonable to assume that they aim for a defender this year.
Defensemen The Lightning Should Target
As mentioned when looking at forwards, there were group discussions about who the Lightning should target and why. The conclusion for defencemen was four guys. Those guys were Nick Seeler (Philadelphia Flyers), Olli Maatta (Detroit Red Wings), Ethan Bear (Canucks), and Matt Benning (San Jose Sharks).
Seeler has some term left, with one more year under contract after this season, but he’s affordable at $800,000. Maatta is on the more expensive side ($2.3 million) but would be a rental. Bear is also expensive ($2.2 million) and also signed till just the end of this season. Finally, Benning has this season plus three more at $1.3 million, making him an unlikely target.
Nick Seeler
Seeler is such an intriguing option out of Philly. Averaging 14:20 time on ice per game, he plays mostly just tough match-ups. His presence allows the likes of Travis Sanheim, Anthony DeAngelo, Ivan Provorov, and Cam York to get the lighter match-ups. Within his role, he has nine points in 47 games, including three goals. He has delivered 75 hits and blocked 79 shots, showing a willingness to play a tough style.
Using Dom Luszczyszyn’s GSVA player cards, Seeler has a $3.2 million market value to his $800,000 salary. Using Evolving-Hockey’s player cards, Seeler ranks in the 91st percentile of NHL defenders for his overall contributions using their goals above replacement (GAR) and expected GAR (xGAR) model. Offensively, he ranks in the 69th percentile and defensively he ranks in the 95th percentile on that same player card. Meanwhile, JFresh’s card has Seeler in the 68th percentile in his projected wins above replacement (WAR) model. Offensively, Seeler is ranked in the 13th percentile, while his defence ranks in the 89th percentile.
A trade for Seeler, based on the role he plays and raw production, would look something like this:
To Tampa Bay: Nick Seeler
To Philadelphia: Cal Foote, 2023 6th round pick
Olli Maatta
Maatta is more interesting. He averages 18:07 per game, showing he is valued by his team in a big way. Additionally, he has scored more than Seeler, with 15 points in 44 games, including four goals. His contract also makes things intriguing. How will the Lightning fit the deal under their salary cap?
Looking at the same player cards, starting with Dom’s, Maatta’s market value is only $1.8 million. That means, by Dom’s model, he is overpaid by roughly $400,000. Meanwhile, Evolving-Hockey’s card has Maatta in the 63rd percentile for his overall contributions. Meanwhile, his offence is in the 52nd percentile, and his defence is in the 71st percentile. Finally, JFresh’s model has Maatta in the 64th percentile overall. Maatta’s offence ranks in the 21st percentile, while his defence ranks in the 79th percentile. He also ranks favourably on the penalty kill for JFresh, in the 85th percentile. What would this deal look like?
To Tampa Bay: Olli Maatta
To Detroit: Vladislav Namestnikov, Alex Barre-Boulet, 2023 5th round pick
Ethan Bear
Bear is another very interesting player for the Lightning to target. He is young (25 years old) and this season has been a bit of a resurgent one. He averages 18:17 per game, which is his highest average since 2019-20. He has scored 10 points in 36 games thus far with Vancouver and is on pace for his best season since 2019-20.
Dom’s model has Bear with a $2.8 million market value, which is a surplus just shy of $1 million over what he is currently getting paid. On JFresh’s model, Bear is in the 71st percentile for his overall game, while his offence is in the 81st percentile and his defence is in the 55th percentile. Finally, on Evolving-Hockey’s cards, Bear ranks in the 65th percentile for his overall game. Meanwhile, his offence is in the 52nd percentile and his defence is in the 74th percentile.
The reason he is lower on the list than the previous two is because he is more offensive than defensive, outside of Evolving-Hockey’s card. However, his offence is impacted by him having less GAR than xGAR on the year, a result of playing for a poor team. That said, he isn’t exactly what the Lightning want, but he is still an upgrade over some of the guys they currently employ. A trade for Bear likely looks like this:
To Tampa Bay: Ethan Bear (50% retained)
To Vancouver: Cal Foote, 2024 3rd round pick
Matt Benning
Benning is 28 years old, and with the Sharks, has averaged 19:25 per game, a career-high. Playing in 49 games, he has scored 21 points, to go along with 74 hits and 79 blocks. Playing a physical style of hockey, as well as over 400 NHL games of experience, he certainly fits the bill of what the Lightning are likely looking for.
On Dom’s card, Benning has a market value of $3.8 million, or a $2.5 million surplus value. On Evolving-Hockey’s card, Benning is in the 79th percentile of players for his overall play. Offensively, he ranks in the 31st percentile, while his defence ranks in the 92nd percentile. Finally, on JFresh’s model, Benning ranks in the 91st percentile. His offence ranks in the 57th percentile, while his defence ranks in the 96th percentile. What brings pause is not only the term remaining on his deal but also the fact his offence has declined from the last two seasons, while his defence is abnormally high for his usual play. Regardless, a deal for Benning may look something like this:
To Tampa Bay: Matt Benning
To San Jose: Cal Foote, 2023 6th round pick
Who The Ideal Defenceman Would Be
All of these guys are intriguing for different reasons. But from the perspective of what type of player they are looking for, plus what they need stylistically based on games tracked throughout the year, Nick Seeler is the top guy to grab. He is likely one of the cheaper guys to afford based on what the team would give up. Additionally, his contract is easily the most affordable for the Lightning. Seeler would fit in well with the team, and add more depth to a solid core. He is an upgrade over their current depth pieces at an affordable price.
The other defenders listed all would be difficult to work under the cap. Maatta is doable but at the cost of forward depth. Benning has too much term left on his deal. Bear is tough to fit under the cap, and he does not seem like a guy the Canucks would deal away with how he has looked both on the surface and underneath. Either way, looking at both the forwards that were highlighted and these defenders, there are options on the table for the Tampa Bay Lightning.
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