Welcome back to another day of NHL Predictions. Each day, Last Word on Hockey takes a look at the games that are happening and gives our predictions for each one, breaking down head-to-head and other factors that may play in. We also have a featured game of the day, which is considered must-watch TV. Today’s featured game is the Washington Capitals vs. Calgary Flames.
NHL Predictions
Note: All stats for this NHL Predictions article are provided from Evolving-Hockey
Arizona Coyotes vs. Vancouver Canucks
Head-to-Head: Coyotes 0-0 Canucks
Arizona and Vancouver face off for the first of three meetings tonight. Both teams have had a similarly poor first quarter of the season (albeit with massively different pre-season expectations wielded to each team), but not without their larger bright spots. Vancouver has seen a reemergence of Elias Pettersson, producing at a pace above a point per game. Regarding another sort of emergence, Andrei Kuzmenko has burst onto the scene, providing a new source of offensive generation and producing at a rate matching that of hype he had coming into his first pro season in North America.
In Arizona, Karel Vejmelka has rebounded from a miserably abysmal 2021-22 season by providing surprisingly welcomed stability in the crease. For reference, Veljmelka’s 9.7 goals saved above-expected ranks 5th among all goaltenders this season. For the Canucks, however, goaltending concerns have heightened. Demko, whose season has been largely categorized by uncharacteristically poor performance, is set to miss some significant time due to an injury sustained against Florida on Thursday, leaving the net to Spencer Martin (who has seen some considerable action luckily).
Despite any potentially solid play of Vejmelka, Arizona will have massive difficulties unless they generate past their season average of sub-two expected goals for per 60. Vancouver should win this game, and hopefully build momentum and a more consistent stretch of play.
Prediction: Canucks win 3-1
Florida Panthers vs. Seattle Kraken
Head-to-Head: Panthers 0-0 Kraken
The offensive inclination may be the defining trait of this matchup, with both teams ranking beside each other within the top five for 5v5 goals for per 60 league-wide. However, each team’s form (at least within the last 10 games) varies quite a bit. Seattle enters the game off of back-to-back overtime wins (including a 9-8 victory over the Kings on Tuesday) and winners of their past seven. Dave Hakstol has found a way to better leverage some of Seattle’s talent up front, especially notable examples of such include Daniel Sprong, Jared McCann, and Jordan Eberle, among others. Andre Burakovsky is riding one of the hottest production streaks in the league, with 10 points in five consecutive games (while recording at least a point in all games).
Florida, on the other hand, has lost seven of their last ten headed into tonight’s game. Some recent games have fallen just out of grasp in overtime, despite any generally solid 5v5 efforts. Florida’s position at 11-9-4 (26 points) is especially surprising within the context of this season exclusively, considering the similar position of the team’s macro-performance as last season. Luckily for Florida, they took their previous game against the Canucks Thursday night, and hope to build toward results more reflective of the team’s offensive firepower.
Goaltending-wise, Spencer Knight and Phillip Grubauer are set to start (via Rotowire) in goal for Florida and Seattle respectively. Spencer Knight (for now) appears to be the main choice for Florida, fairly outplaying his partner Sergei Bobrovsky so far, while Grubauer has been edged out on a consistent basis to the ever-so-polarizing Martin Jones.
Climate Pledge Arena should feature a fiery grudge match; today, we give Seattle the edge and prediction of an eighth-straight win.
Prediction: Kraken win 5-4
Washington Capitals vs. Calgary Flames
Head-to-Head: Capitals 0-0 Flames
And now for today’s featured matchup in NHL Predictions, the first of two meetings between the Capitals and Flames. This game pits two surprisingly meddling teams dropping points to a .500 level or lower. Calgary’s start has been fairly complex in its nature, but the leading narrative of Jacob Markstrom‘s play (enforced by even himself) seems to hold true, based on his below-average GSAx and save percentage so far. Production and generation from the likes of Jonathan Huberdeau, Nazam Kadri, Andrew Mangiapane, and others have been at times pitifully poor, and at best slightly above average. The Flames have had glimpses of previously offensive play at times (see the 6-2 win against Florida on Tuesday for example), but nothing has been consistent.
Washington comes into tonight with a record of 10-11-4 (24 points). Aside from Alex Ovechkin, the Capitals both in generation and production have been quite poor, with no other forward on the roster amassing 20 points up to this point in the season. Another reference point for this problem is the fact the Capitals are 22nd in both expected goals for percentage and expected goals for per 60 (both 5v5) this season. A smaller bright spot (again, aside from Alex Ovechkin) comes with the play of Darcy Kuemper in goal, who is seemingly exterminating some of the claims of his Colorado results simply existing as byproducts of the holistic powerhouse of the Avalanche. His 7.25 GSAx ranks 7th among all goaltenders this season.
Two underperforming teams matching up looking to get their respective seasons back on track. Tonight should live up to its featured status, and for this game, the Flames get the edge for their generally stronger 5v5 pace of play primarily.
Prediction: Flames win 3-1
Carolina Hurricanes vs. Los Angeles Kings
Head-to-Head: Hurricanes 0-0 Kings
Our final game in NHL Predictions sees the Carolina Hurricanes and Los Angeles face off for the first time this season, with both teams holding similar standings in their respective divisions. The Hurricanes and Kings both control their pace of play by fair margins compared to their opponents. Los Angeles has seen fairly solid production up top with Kevin Fiala leading the way by points. Team defence has also been stellar (save Tuesday night against the Kraken), with Anze Kopitar and Phillip Danault down the middle at forward and defenders such as Matt Roy and Sean Durzi suffocating the most. In terms of brutal detriments, goaltending has absolutely hampered the Kings so far, with a team-average save percentage ranking 30th in the league.
Despite elite play from Andrei Svechnikov and a breakout season from Martin Necas, among typically elite play among Carolina’s top players, the Hurricanes start has been pressed as somewhat underwhelming throughout the league. One glaring issue with the Canes lies in their finishing. The Hurricanes are suffering from poor finishing again; this theme has run fairly true throughout the past couple of seasons for Carolina. This issue likely results largely from a systematic play in how Carolina typically generates chances; however, the degree in how much they generate generally results in at least above-average scoring across an entire-season sample.
This game should provide a solid mix of octane play and competent defending, with the Kings given the edge prediction-wise.
Prediction: Kings win 3-2 in Overtime
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