Nazem Kadri has been everything the Colorado Avalanche have hoped for since they acquired him in a trade with the Toronto Maple Leafs, except for his high hit on Justin Faulk during the 2021 Stanley Cup Playoffs. When the Avs brought in Kadri they were in desperate need of some depth help, especially at the center position. Kadri instantly brought stability to the second-line centre position.
Now, with Kadri being an unrestricted free agent, the Avalanche are at a crossroads regarding what to do with him.
Pros and Cons of the Avs Letting Nazem Kadri Walk
There is little doubt the Avalanche want to bring Kadri back. The issue is Kadri decided to go out and have the best season of his career, scoring 87 points (28 goals, 59 assists) in 71 games. Kadri left 11 games on the table due to injury. Had Kadri played a full slate of games he would have hit the 100-point mark on the season. For a guy whose previous season high in points was 61 back in 2016-17 with Toronto, that’s not bad.
Joe Sakic typically does a great job of foreseeing the future and sigs extensions prior to their current deal running out. He did so with Samuel Girard and Devon Toews. Had Sakic done the same with Kadri he might have been able to get him for a relatively modest increase from his $4.5 AAV contract. I don’t think anybody, maybe including Kadri, expected him to go out and have the season he did. Which also included his first ever All-Star appearance (voted in by fans as the last man in).
We live in a “what have you done for me lately” society in sports. When a player has a career year in the last year of a contract, teams will zero in on that season when they make their sales pitch.
This is where the Avalanche have a lot to consider. Do they pay for a player who has done everything asked of him since coming to Denver, which has resulted in a Stanley Cup championship? Or do they admit they just can’t make the moves necessary to clear the cap space to bring him back? Let’s look at the options.
— Colorado Avalanche (@Avalanche) October 15, 2021
What Will it Take to Bring Kadri Back?
In short, free up cap space. If Kadri told the Avs to repeat his last contract in terms of the $4.5 AAV, the Avalanche still couldn’t make that deal happen. According to Cap Friendly, the Avalanche have $3.91 million in cap space remaining. They would have to do move pieces around to free up cap space to make an offer within the range he appears to be looking for.
We don’t know what the rate for Kadri will be. Reports are out there that Kadri is looking somewhere in the $8-9 AAV range, which many feel he won’t get. Especially since Kadri only wants to go to a contender. That makes his options limited since he has waited to sign. Many teams have already spent their money in the free agency market. A more reasonable number for the forward would be in the $6-7 million AAV range. Something the Avalanche could achieve with some dealing.
The two names we are hearing to free up space are forward J.T. Compher and defenseman Girard. Many are jumping ship with Girard after a poor season from the defenseman. Trading him to free up his $5 AAV would leave plenty of money to sign Kadri. The fact that this hasn’t happened yet leads me to believe it won’t happen.
Girard is a very good d-man who had a down year. Would the Avalanche move on from a promising young defenseman with a team-friendly cap number after one bad year? Not likely. Plus, teams would be lining up to make a deal with the Avs to acquire Girard. The Avalanche could have a deal to move Girard by breakfast, leading the way to a new Kadri signing. If this hasn’t happened by now, I don’t feel like it will.
If a deal is made by the Avalanche, Compher seems like the more likely candidate. Compher is a little bit of an enigma. Acquired from the Buffalo Sabres in the Ryan O’Reilly trade, the Avalanche have always hoped Compher would take that next step. Truth be told, they were hoping he would turn out something like Kadri has for them. It hasn’t materialized, but that isn’t to say Compher isn’t of value to them. He has settled in nicely in a bottom six role and at times shows flashes of dominating the ice.
However, after the 2022-23 season, Compher himself will be a UFA. Can the Avs move him to free up $3.5 million in cap room? That would give them just shy of $7.5 million in cap space. Which should be enough to keep Kadri around.
What If Kadri Doesn’t Return?
There are a lot of Avalanche fans who were once on the fence about Kadri. They have fallen in love with him thanks to this past season. We all love a great redemption story (see Valeri Nichushkin), and Kadri gave us one during 2021-22. The suspension during the playoff in 2021 against St. Louis had fans quite angry. They felt that if Kadri were around against the Vegas Golden Knights the Avs wouldn’t have had yet another second round exit.
Many had their eyes fixed on Kadri making sure he was on his best behaviour and not throwing a questionable hit the league would suspend him for yet again. Kadri responded with a career season. One that made teams that might not have had an interest in him come free agency, look again.
Even if he had a typical Kadri-like season, say somewhere in the 50-60 points range, plus what he gives you on the power play, faceoffs, and with just plain grit, he would have commanded a pay increase. Have an 87-point season and now the Avalanche are in a war to bring him back.
What if they can’t? What if the Avalanche exhaust all their options and in the end it is just too expensive to bring Kadri back?
Well, it might look something like what the Avalanche did with their goalie situation in bringing in Alexander Georgiev. Someone who’s a bit unproven but hasn’t been given a full shot to show their potential.
Would the Avalanche Keep it In-House?
A lot of the big free agent names in the market that could produce the numbers Kadri did have been signed. That’s not to say Sakic and MacFarland won’t try to find that Georgiev type of player at the forward position. Cut them loose in the Avalanche system to see what they can produce. That’s a long shot, however.
The Avalanche could keep things in-house and hope for someone like Alex Newhook to take the next step. But for Newhook, that is more like a leap than a step. The Avs have a lot of faith in their young forward. But would they throw Newhook into that role and expect Kadri-like results immediately? Especially considering Newhook was a healthy scratch for several games during last year’s playoffs? That’s a lot to ask of him in a short period of time.
Speaking of Newhook, let’s not forget he will be a restricted free after next season. While he won’t break the bank with his RFA deal, a sizable increase is expected. As is budding star, Bowen Byram. Not throwing $6-7 million to Kadri would be useful in money going towards them and other assets the Avalanche could potentially bring in.
And let us not forget the impending mega-deal that is expected to go Nathan MacKinnon’s way as well. Erik Johnson and his $6 million AAV will be gone by then. The Avalanche could essentially just forward that money to MacKinnon and wash their hands. However, not having substantial money tied up in Kadri, a soon to be 32 year old forward, for the next several years could be to the Avs’ benefit.
So How Will This End?
It’s clear he wants to stay and it’s equally as clear the Avalanche want him back. Kadri appreciates what the Avalanche have done for his career. Especially the support they have shown all throughout the issues he has had in his short time in Colorado. From the suspension after the Faulk hit, to the despicable acts of hate thrown toward him by the St. Louis fans in last season’s playoffs, the Avalanche have been there for Kadri, and he has responded in his play on the ice.
Sometimes you just can’t make a relationship work. The fact we are going into week three since free agency started and the Avalanche haven’t made the moves needed to get Kadri signed is pretty telling.
Reports state that the Avalanche do not want to move on from Girard, but haven’t said much about Compher. Sakic and MacFarland have made miracles happen in the past. If they want to keep Kadri around as well as retain Girard and Compher, then this will be a miracle of all miracles.
