Player development seems to always result in more questions than answers. How likely is it for a top pick to pan out? What makes a player a “steal”? Last Word On Hockey will be starting a new series on how to properly develop prospects from all different spots throughout the draft. This week’s piece involves top-15 picks and how they were used early in their careers.
Player Developments Of Top-15 Picks
In the span of 2005 through 2015, there were 21 total selections made between 11th overall and 15th overall on forwards playing in North America. Looking at all 21 forwards, they were split into different categories. Today, we’ll look at the category of “Brought in immediately when deemed NHL-ready.” That category had three players. Those players were Bryan Little, Max Domi, and Peter Holland. In this piece, we will look at Holland.
Player Development Of Peter Holland
Peter Holland, who was drafted 15th overall by the Anaheim Ducks, came out of the OHL’s Guelph Storm organization. In his DY-1 season, his first year in the OHL, Holland recorded eight goals and 15 assists for 23 points in 62 games. That was good for 0.371 points per game, ranking 18th out of those 21 forwards in DY-1 production. He followed that up with 28 goals and 39 assists for 67 points in 68 games played with Guelph. Holland would record a 0.985 points per game pace, ranking 14th out of those same 21 forwards in DY production. Deemed not NHL-ready yet, Holland would see more seasons in the OHL.
The following year, he would score 30 goals and 50 assists for 80 points in 59 games, good for 1.356 points per game, ranking seventh out of 20 forwards still not playing in the NHL in DY+1 production. Still not NHL-ready, Holland would again play in the OHL, scoring 37 goals and 51 assists for 88 points in 67 games. That was good for 1.313 points per game, ranking fourth among 12 forwards still outside the NHL in DY+2 production.
AHL Time Sees Improvement For Peter Holland
Playing 71 games in the AHL, Holland would score 23 goals and 37 assists for 60 points for the Syracuse Crunch. That was good for 0.845 points per game, deeming him NHL-ready. After this season, he would get the call-up he deserved.
How Was Holland Used?
In his first official NHL season, Holland would see 21 games at the top level. He would see an additional 45 AHL games, where he posted 19 goals and 20 assists for 39 points. In the 21 NHL games, Holland would average 11:35 time on ice per game, recording three goals and two assists for five points. Holland’s underlying stats weren’t bad, considering his small role. His even-strength offence goals above replacement (EVO) was up at 1.9, while his even-strength defence goals above replacement (EVD) was above replacement level at 0.5. With both analytics over replacement level, Holland’s wins above replacement (WAR) and goals above replacement (GAR) scores were up at 0.4 and 1.9, respectively.
In his second NHL season, he would be dealt by the Ducks to the Toronto Maple Leafs. In 43 total games, Holland scored six goals and five assists for 11 points, while averaging 11:21 time on ice per game. He also played 24 AHL games, scoring 10 goals and nine assists for 19 points. In the NHL, his analytics would mostly decline. His EVO (2.1) was the only thing to improve. Meanwhile, his EVD (-3.1) collapsed, leading to his WAR (-0.2) and GAR (-0.8) falling below replacement level.
Peter Holland Becomes Full-Time NHLer
Holland, in his third season, would play full-time in the NHL. He would slot into 62 games, averaging 14:31 time on ice per game. In that increased role, Holland would score 11 goals and 14 assists for 25 points. His advanced analytics would improve across the board, especially his EVO (6.3). His EVD (-2.3) would remain below replacement level, while his WAR (0.2) and GAR (1.3) would be back above replacement level.
Following that third season, he would stay with Toronto for one more full season and a small part of a second season. In total, he played 73 games after his third NHL season with Toronto. He scored nine goals and 19 assists for 28 points. Holland would be dealt to the Arizona Coyotes, where he would finish the season playing 40 games and scoring five goals and six assists for 11 points. He would leave the Coyotes and join the New York Rangers for two years. Holland would see just 23 NHL games there, scoring one goal and three assists for four points.
Peter Holland would see 109 AHL games in that span, scoring 40 goals and 58 assists for 98 points. He would play two KHL seasons, with 119 games played, scoring 29 goals and 50 assists for 79 points. This past season, he played in the SHL with Djurgardens IF, scoring just six assists in 15 games. Safe to say, his player development path wasn’t awful. He just simply never panned out.
Junior league stats via Elite Prospects, NHL stats via Hockey Reference, NHL analytics via Evolving Hockey
Main Photo:
