When a team isn’t good in the NHL, it’s better to be horrible than mediocre. Take it from the many organizations across the league that are in the midst of rebuilds, sacrificing present success for future gain. Their strategy? Fail now, get a good draft pick, hope that draft pick results in an impact player, and build a better group around him. But for years, the Philadelphia Flyers have been stuck in a pit of mediocrity, holding off a true tank by remaining a perennial borderline playoff team.
This season, though, something is different. The Flyers are not finishing fourth or fifth or sixth in the Metropolitan. If all goes according to plan, they will end up dead last in their division. And that, more than another year of “maybe”, is what this team needs.
The only thing standing in the way of that outcome now is the last few games of the season. Seven contests could very well determine the Flyers’ draft odds. And unfortunately for Philadelphia’s rebuild hopes, those seven contests may be the difference between a high pick and yet another middling selection.
Philadelphia Flyers Tank Still Uncertain
Flyers Upcoming Schedule
In the last stretch of the season, the Flyers will face several teams near their place in the league standings. There’s the Montreal Canadiens, one of just three teams sitting below the Flyers. Then come the Chicago Blackhawks and Ottawa Senators – both just a bit ahead in standings points. Though the Winnipeg Jets are by no means as weak as the previously-mentioned groups, they are also out of the playoffs. And that means that up to four of six games could potentially (that’s a very uncertain potentially, though) end as wins.
Other Tanking Teams’ Schedules
The Flyers have been battling with the New Jersey Devils for last in the Metropolitan. New Jersey leads by just two standings points, which could easily be erased. Looking at the Devils’ schedule, one would likely see a fairly similar situation to the Flyers, with just seven games less. Overall, though, New Jersey has a more difficult slate of games, with two against the division-leading Carolina Hurricanes and none against teams with worse records.
Conversely, the Seattle Kraken sit below the Flyers by just three points. They have eight games remaining, of which three are against playoff-bound teams. Unfortunately for the Flyers, Seattle also has some contests against decent opponents headed toward them, including matchups against the Dallas Stars and Vancouver Canucks. But with a win over the Senators – and perhaps another surprise upset – the Kraken could end up moving above the Flyers.
Best-Case Scenario
Suppose that the Flyers lose all the rest of their games (which could very well end up being the case, given the newest slate of injuries they face). They’d end up at 57 points. The best-case scenario would include all the other teams closest to them in the standings winning all of their games – a pipe dream, but let’s entertain the possibility. With seven games left, even the league-worst Arizona Coyotes could potentially overtake the Flyers. That would leave them at the bottom of the league with the first overall draft pick – and, if the lottery didn’t go their way, the third overall pick.
But perhaps we assume a more realistic “good” scenario. The Flyers, hindered by the absences of the likes of Carter Hart and Cam Atkinson, lose all their games. The Kraken, with the addition of Matthew Beniers, win two of theirs. The Flyers drop to third-worst and are guaranteed a pick between third and fifth. It’s not a huge improvement, but it’s still a step toward draft day success.
Worst-Case Scenario
While a turn for the better likely wouldn’t do much for the Flyers, there’s a lot that could go wrong in this final stretch of the 2021-22 season. Assume the Flyers manage to win those four games against weaker opponents, and the other tanking teams lose all of their remaining contests. They’d be bumped up by eight points, enough to overtake the Devils, Senators, and Blackhawks. That would leave them picking seventh, and potentially picking ninth in a worst-case lottery scenario. A five-pick drop could be the difference between the Flyers getting the kind of blue-chip prospect they want and a solid-but-not-cornerstone player.
Likely Outcome of Philadelphia Flyers Tank
Ultimately, this end-of-season madness will probably produce a result somewhere between the best- and worst-case scenarios. At the rate they’re going now, the Flyers might be able to win one or two games for two to four points (although it wouldn’t be a total surprise if they happened to lose the last seven.) But the Devils will probably win more, and the Kraken won’t be able to pull off enough victories to overtake the Flyers. Thus, the status quo remains.
But what about the draft lottery? Well, according to Tankathon, finishing fourth would give the Flyers a 9.7 percent chance to win. Still, the three worse teams have about a combined 50 percent chance of winning, and the better teams have a 40 percent chance. So suppose one team above the Flyers in the draft order gets the lottery, and one team below does, too. They would pick fifth – still, not bad.
Regardless, the Flyers should have the opportunity to pick in a high spot. The last time they had such a chance, they took Nolan Patrick. This time, they should use it to select a defenceman (Simon Nemec, perhaps?). The defensive corps has been a problem for the Flyers all season – even Ivan Provorov (a former seventh-overall pick) has regressed, leaving the team without an elite top-pairing blueliner. Though highly-drafted players are never guaranteed to pan out, the draft might be the best way for the Flyers to obtain a cornerstone defenceman to build around. As long as Philadelphia refrains from going on a surprise winning streak, the stage will be set for them to get a solid prospect – and maybe even a future star.
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