Morgan Rielly is the longest-tenured player on the Leafs’ roster. He was there for the bad (2013-2016) and the good (2016-2021). He has been a core piece of their rebuild on the blueline and even finished top-5 in Norris voting one season. Rielly will have one year on his deal after this one, and it is unlikely the Leafs will be able to afford to keep Rielly with a flat cap.
Toronto Maple Leafs Tenure for Morgan Rielly Could Be Coming to Close
Contract Situation
The reason I say this is twofold. First, as previously mentioned, is the contract situation. Morgan Rielly will most certainly be looking for a raise on the $5,000,000 he’s making now. He’s the type of defenceman that gets the big money in free agency. He puts up points, is flashy and has all the makings to quarterback a power play if need be. He will get a raise, and the Leafs certainly won’t be able to give it to him.
The Leafs should deal him away and recoup some assets for him. While I have been a huge advocate for contending teams doing not this. It’s sometimes okay for teams to lose guys for nothing. However, it could make sense in this specific occasion. The Leafs D group is better than it’s ever been in my lifetime. If any Leafs D group could take the hit of losing Morgan Rielly, it’s the group with Jake Muzzin, T.J. Brodie, and Justin Holl.
New Faces
But, Rielly does in fact have one year left. So why do I think he won’t be back? Shouldn’t the Leafs try and take advantage of his last year on his deal? In almost every situation I’d say yes. Like I said before, it’s okay for teams to sometimes lose guys for nothing if they’re contending. However, it’s because of the emergence of one specific player that makes me think the Leafs are planning for a future without Morgan Rielly. It’s due to Rasmus Sandin‘s excellent play.
Sandin has taken Rielly’s role on the top power-play unit, he’s taken the role as defenceman at 6v5, and even when Rielly was being rested Sandin was put to the top pair with Brodie.
Pre-practice power play work
Looks like Leafs are going back to two balanced units
Sandin
Matthews – Thornton – Marner
HymanRielly
Spezza – Tavares – Nylander
Simmonds @TSN_Edge pic.twitter.com/sc23VxLsk3— Mark Masters (@markhmasters) May 16, 2021
The Leafs primary 6-on-5 unit at practice today: Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, William Nylander, Zach Hyman and…Rasmus Sandin.
— Jonas Siegel (@jonassiegel) May 17, 2021
Keefe on Sandin getting the top pair responsibility: A, I think he's earned it and B, it's just part of the growth process for him.
— David Alter (@dalter) April 30, 2021
Rasmus Sandin has been put in these positions that Morgan Rielly has held for years now. It’s figuring out if they’re comfortable enough with Sandin as a replacement for Rielly in the immediate future. Sandin has played well in these roles (technically Sandin’s power-play metrics are much worse than Rielly’s, but Sandin only joined the power-play recently when it’s been bad, whereas Rielly had the benefit of playing on the white-hot power-play to start the year).
The only thing is, the Leafs have used Sandin in limited games this season. For a team that likes to make informed decisions, it’s certainly a small sample size to run with. But if they are to gain assets for Rielly, a decision should be made to maximize his value.
What a Rielly Trade Could Mean
A Rielly trade could be very big in terms of salary cap implications for the Leafs. With Andersen expiring, and the Leafs lose a player to the expansion draft (likely Dermott), this gives them a little money to play with. This could be a difference-maker in whether the Leafs re-sign Zach Hyman or not. It could give them the money that’s required to pursue a goaltender to replace Andersen in the off-season.
I believe that the Leafs are preparing to move on from Morgan Rielly. Based on their use of Sandin in the second half of the season, and the impending contract expiration of Rielly in 2022, the Leafs could very well make a trade involving Rielly.
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