After a rough stretch this week in which Toronto’s largely outplayed their opponents, worry is reaching a boiling point in the Leafs’ fandom surrounding the goaltending situation. This was a worry supposedly solved at the Trade Deadline this year. With David Rittich recently acquired from the Calgary Flames, the Leafs were solidifying the backup position behind Jack Campbell with Frederik Andersen‘s health uncertain.
That hasn’t happened. Rittich has started in two games as a Leaf and has yet to record a win. However, even with poor early returns, this trade is still defendable from Toronto’s standpoint.
All advanced statistics courtesy of MoneyPuck.com.
David Rittich Deal Still Defendable After Rough Start
A Down Year for David
Now a five-year NHL veteran, part of the reason Rittich was dealt by the Flames was that he was (and still is) in the midst of the worst statistical season of his career.
Rittich has never been a spectacular option or a bonafide starter. He has, however, shown the ability to work well in a tandem setting and put up respectable numbers. Rittich’s posted a .899 save percentage on the season and only a .877 in Toronto, both marks far below his career average of .907.
However, there are a couple of non-fancy explanations for these dips in numbers. For one — Rittich had little-to-no preparation time before joining the Leafs. The 28-year-old netminder quite literally flew to his first Maple Leaf start on the Flames’ team plane and had minimal practice behind Toronto’s defence. Rittich was also playing behind the worst Calgary team during his tenure, a team that currently sits two games below .500 with under a month remaining in the season.
Considering it’s pretty evident that Rittich’s in the midst of a lengthy slump with multiple contributing factors, there are reasons for optimism as Toronto inches closer to the playoffs. Yet there’s still a lengthy and much more academic explanation for a potential Rittich bounce-back down the stretch.
Suggesting Regression
Analytics
In order to understand exactly *how* much of a down-season Rittich is having, it’s crucial to look at how he’s performing compared to the shot quality he’s faced.
Rittich’s goals saved above expected (per 60 minutes) this season is -0.298, easily a career-low. His previous qualifying seasons read as follows:
2017-18: -0.179
2018-19: 0.137
2019-20: -0.182
So while Rittich’s had some consistency issues throughout his career, his advanced numbers slot him comfortably as an average NHL goalie and below-average starter. Which begs the question – other than the aforementioned factors, what’s changed for Rittich this season?
Eye Test
Well, nothing really. The best answer I can offer up is that goaltending is voodoo. However, there’s some specific goals against Rittich this season that suggest some better games are ahead in the future — especially in a Leafs’ uniform.
Take a look at the following goals conceded by Rittich in his last start against the Vancouver Canucks:
Hoglander ties it pic.twitter.com/fm03akm9kG
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) April 21, 2021
Tanner Pearson again. 5-3 pic.twitter.com/yaKk9nXuct
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) April 21, 2021
These were two absolutely momentum-stifling goals that went in a very similar fashion. The first shot by Höglander just plainly beats him through the sliver of space left in his five-hole, arguably a good shot, arguably bad technique. But the real offender here is the Pearson tally. Pearson’s original shot is going wide, but Rittich’s lack of commitment to either playing the shot standing or in the butterfly position leaves some space between his pad and the ice. A lack of awareness for the wide shot causes the puck to deflect off Rittich’s skate and into the net.
What Now?
The abhorrent technical gaffes on both these goals are ugly to watch, but also somewhat promising. 98 or 99 games out of 100, Rittich doesn’t allow those goals — his save percentage improves, and the Leafs win.
As Rittich gets in more practice time with the Leafs, he’ll have more time to work with their system and their coaching staff. As the principles of regression apply themselves, less bad goals will be going in the net.
Early returns haven’t been good, but there are many reasons for optimism. As other trade deadline acquisitions (oh hi, Nick Foligno!) filter in, the Leafs are gearing up for their best chance at a deep playoff run since the 2004-05 lockout.
And as always, thanks for reading.
Main Photo:
Embed from Getty Images
