After a loss against the Ottawa Senators on Sunday night that’s better left in the rearview mirror, the Maple Leafs have some significant downtime, not playing again until Friday night (at home against the Calgary Flames). It’s the perfect time to reflect on some of Toronto’s biggest storylines from the first half of this 2021 campaign.
There’s always been a central figure of every Leafs team that we can’t stop looking at. Phil Kessel gave way to Jake Gardiner, who gave way to William Nylander, who, for the time being, has (partially) passed the torch to defender Morgan Rielly. Improved defence by his teammates, particularly his partner T.J. Brodie, has exposed some defensive flaws in his game. Does he deserve to be this year’s whipping boy, or has he improved throughout the season?
Morgan Rielly Has Had an Enigmatic 2021 Season
A Tale of Two Seasons: January 13 – February 13
Most of the concerns around Reilly’s campaign this year stem from his play during the first month of the season. During that first month, Rielly was fifth on the team with 11 points in 15 games. For many, those numbers aren’t a cause for concern, and in a vacuum, they aren’t. Rielly, the Leafs’ best offensive defenceman, is leading the blue-line in points. This is good, right?
Well, only five of those 11 points were on the power play. Jake Muzzin was actually outproducing him at even strength, as Muzzin’s eight even-strength points were tied for third with John Tavares in that span behind Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner.
Peeling back more layers, Rielly’s underlying numbers make his play during this time more concerning. In those 15 games during the first month of the season, Rielly’s on-ice even-strength goal differential was an even 0. On for 13 for, on for 13 against. While many would point to his high usage and tough minutes (20:20 per game at even strength), comparing him against his teammates doesn’t do him any favours. Out of all Leafs skaters to play at least two games during that timeframe, 13 had a positive goal differential at even strength, meaning Rielly was tied for just 14th on the team in this stat.
If that isn’t enough, let’s look at the quality of chances while Rielly was on the ice. Per Natural Stat Trick, Rielly’s expected goals for percentage through this timeframe was 49.42, which ranked 11th among Leafs skaters and fourth among Leafs D (Muzzin, Holl, and Dermott all had better).
There’s no doubt that Rielly was struggling compared to his teammates to start the season. Your eyes were right. You should expect more out of the Leafs’ no. 1 defenceman.
Here’s the thing: Rielly delivered.
A Tale of Two Seasons: February 14 – March 14
The Leafs’ recent skid may have many fans on edge, despite some strong underlying numbers during the losses. For some, like Rielly, the improvement in those underlying numbers is staggering.
Let’s look at some more basic numbers to start again. Post-February 13th, Rielly’s overall point production was slightly better (12 points in 15 games compared to 11). Remember that even goal differential at even strength, though?
Rielly, who ranked 14th on the Leafs the month prior in even-strength goal differential, led the entire team in this stat with a +13 between February 14th and March 14th. “What about those pesky expected goals numbers, though? Don’t they always tell you that good players are actually bad?”
Captain Morgan’s expected goals percentage at even strength during his second month of the year was 60.59, a jump of over 10 percentage points. It also ranks third on the team (save for Kenny Agostino‘s one game of action) behind Auston Matthews and William Nylander, moving him up to also being the Leafs’ BEST defenceman in terms of expected goals shares during the second month of the season.
What’s the Moral Here?
This piece isn’t meant to compare Rielly to ghosts of Leafs’ past. In fact, it’s meant to do the opposite.
Morgan Rielly, a leader on this team, needed to be better defensively and answered the call. Good, nay, great players aren’t immune to cold streaks. And in a 2021 season laced with interruption and concern for health and safety, greatness in sport is a gift, not a given.
Yes, the Leafs have depth. Obviously. They needed their defensive depth to step up and win games before Rielly’s re-emergence. But when Morgan is playing at the top of his game, Toronto has one of the most dynamic back ends in the league for the first time in recent memory.
A leader’s stepped up to return to the form in the middle of a tough season. Let’s be grateful for that, and have trust in Rielly, who’s continuing to show why he’s regarded as one of the league’s best defencemen.
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