Welcome back to NHL Predictions, March 14th edition! Each day, the Last Word On Hockey team will break down every game and give our NHL predictions for each. This is the first set of NHL Predictions for March 14th featuring the Philadelphia Flyers vs New York Rangers. Be sure and check out the second and final set of NHL Predictions, too.
NHL Predictions
Washington Capitals vs Buffalo Sabres
Head-to-Head: Capitals 4 – 1 Sabres
Last week the Washington Capitals went 4-0-0 without Tom Wilson, who started serving a seven-game suspension for his hit on Brandon Carlo. Peter Laviolette‘s side has battled adversity well this season; in January, they went 3-0-1 when Alex Ovechkin, Dmitry Orlov, Evgeny Kuznetsov and Ilya Samsonov entered the COVID-protocol.
Right now, the Capitals are over-achieving offensively at five-on-five, but their defence has been solid, which has given them a slight edge over their competition. Washington ranks fifth in the league in expected goals against (1.94) per 60.
Meanwhile, Buffalo continues to trudge deeper into a quagmire of its own making. The team has lost 10 straight games and been outscored 41-17 during that span. What’s arguably worse though is that the Sabres have won only one more game than the number of times they have been shutout (five) this season.
To add insult to injury, goalscoring has dried up on the powerplay too. Victor Olofsson and co are 0/15 in their last nine games with an extra attacker. However, as it stands, Buffalo is still the fifth-best team on the man advantage (27.14%).
Prediction: Capitals win 5-1
Philadelphia Flyers vs New York Rangers
Head-to-Head: Flyers 1 – 1 Rangers
Carter Hart‘s recent struggles have given the Philadelphia Flyers fanbase an existential crisis. After two solid seasons, the 22-year-old is caught in a rut. He has a .887 save percentage in 16 games so far in 2020-21. According to Money Puck, Hart ranks 42nd in goals saved above expected out of 49 goaltenders to play at least 10 games this season.
In front of him, the skaters have struggled too. Philadelphia is in the bottom half of the NHL in Corsi percentage, scoring chance share and power-play success rate. Offensively, it would help if the roster could find some scoring depth. Right now, Joel Farabee, James van Riemsdyk and Sean Couturier make up the only regular line that is outscoring its opponents at five-on-five.
Elsewhere, after a three-week absence, Artemi Panarin returned to the New York Rangers‘ lineup on Saturday and notched an assist as they dominated Boston in a 4-0 thumping. It was comfortably their best performance of the season. The Rangers clearly enjoyed having their talismanic left-wing back. Without Panarin in the lineup, they are 4-7-0 this year.
Recent offensive standouts for the Rangers include Ryan Strome, who has scored four goals in five games and Pavel Buchnevich, who has been averaging a point per game in his last 10.
Prediction: Rangers win 4-3
[pickup_prop id=”4503″]
Nashville Predators vs Tampa Bay Lightning
Head-to-Head: Predators 0 – 5 Lightning
The Nashville Predators are now 3-10-1 against teams occupying a playoff spot in the Central Division and are on the verge of calling it quits on the season. A recent burst of player injuries including Roman Josi, Matt Duchene, Ryan Ellis and Juuse Saros, has all-but assured the Predators fate.
As a result, coach John Hynes has been blooding youngsters. AHL Prospects Jeremy Davies, Alexandre Carrier and Frederic Allard have all stepped up to fill out the defensive slots on the roster. Unfortunately for Preds fans, this has made it difficult to see any sort of improvement on the penalty kill. Nashville is 31st in the league with a 67.02% success rate.
On the other hand, Tampa Bay is rolling on special teams. In the five-game series (so far) this season against the Predators, the Lightning have gone 8 for 20 on the powerplay. (You can expect some more on Monday.)
Ondrej Palat (seven PP goals) and Steven Stamkos (six PP goals) are the Bolts’ greatest scoring threats with the extra man. Additionally, 16 of Victor Hedman‘s 26 points this season have come from quarterbacking the man advantage.
Prediction: Lightning win 5-3
[pickup_prop id=”4511″]
Chicago Blackhawks vs Florida Panthers
Head-to-Head: Blackhawks 0 – 3 Panthers
This game is a true test of character for the Chicago Blackhawks. They have lost three of their last four games including one at the weekend against the same opponents. Their next stretch of games (three against Florida and two in Tampa) will likely define whether or not they are contenders or pretenders in the Central Divison playoff race.
Alex DeBrincat has been Chicago’s main source of goals in March with four in the last six games. Elsewhere, Patrick Kane has seven points during that span but hasn’t managed to score a goal yet. Both wingers were denied on several grade-A scoring chances by Sergei Bobrovsky on Saturday, which kept the game tied in the early going.
Florida’s first line continues to dominate the play-driving metrics. The slick passing and free-flowing movement of Barkov, Verhaeghe and Duclair make them a living nightmare for any defence.
Although, where Florida deserves the most credit this season is for its own defensive department. In particular, Radko Gudas has brought a physical presence this year which makes the Panthers extremely difficult to play against. He ranks 12th among league defensemen in limiting quality chances. Joel Quenneville‘s defensive corps, as a whole, has been stingy at five-on-five. Florida is fourth in the NHL in expected goals against per 60.
In addition, third-line winger, Frank Vatrano has scored consecutive game-winners.
Prediction: Blackhawks get the monkey off their back and win 4-3
Main Photo:
Embed from Getty Images
