The case of Travis Konecny’s slump is a confusing one. After playing exceptionally during the 2019-20 regular season, he abruptly stopped producing in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Back then, his odd downturn was dismissable in the wake of the stellar season he’d had beforehand. But now, as Konecny continues to underperform, his slow stretch has evolved into a major concern. Here are a few of the underlying factors that have turned Travis Konecny’s slump from slightly frustrating to severely alarming.
Three Reasons Why Travis Konecny’s Slump is Highly Alarming
The Persistence
A slump, by definition, isn’t something that lasts very long. Typically, either the offseason or time is enough to snap it. Thus, the fact that Konecny’s slump hasn’t followed the usual trajectory – instead, carrying over through two pauses – makes it concerning.
The first break was the 2019-20 offseason, which the Flyers entered on September 5, 2020, after falling to the New York Islanders in the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. After several scheduling delays pushed back the start of the 2020-21 season, the NHL finally returned on January 13, 2021. In all, the offseason lasted about five months. And yet it soon became apparent that even the extended time off hadn’t cured Konecny’s slump. He recorded only eight points in the first 12 games.
Then came the second break – a mandatory two-week pause after a bout of COVID infected a large number of Flyers. Konecny himself presumably contracted the virus, as he sat out the full fourteen days. While this particular break didn’t help Konecny in a physical sense, it should have aided his mental state. After all, it provided him with the opportunity for a fresh start amid this hectic season. But though Konecny did pick up his production during his first few games back, recording four points in two games versus the Pittsburgh Penguins, he soon fell back into a pattern of stagnancy. (He’s only scored a point since.)
At this point, Konecny’s slump has lasted through 33 games and nearly half a year’s worth of pauses that should have ended it. That odd persistence alone is a major cause for concern.
The Timing
Thanks to the condensed nature of the 2020-21 season, stakes are higher than ever. In a 56-game schedule, one win or loss could be the difference between a playoff berth and falling short. That means there’s very little room for experimentation and error. As such, now is the worst possible time for Konecny’s slump, because his lacklustre play has destabilized the Flyers’ offence as a whole.
At the outset of this season, Konecny looked like the prime candidate to lead the Flyers’ offensive group. With the way he’d performed last season, it seemed likely that he’d take up a spot on the first line. But Konecny’s continued underperformance through the initial stages of the 2020-21 season forced the Flyers to rapidly rethink his placement – and with it, their entire offensive structure. It took several precious games to assemble the current Konecny-less first line, and even now, the rest of the forward lines are still being rearranged on a nightly basis. In a season where the smallest bit of instability is dangerous, the upheaval caused by Konecny’s unforeseen decline poses a major problem for the team as a whole.
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The Stats
Even the underlying numbers behind Konecny’s slump are worrisome. During the 2019-20 Stanley Cup Playoffs, he logged 7 assists and no goals. This year he has improved in the goal-scoring aspect but has still only recorded 14 points in 18 games. That pace might not seem terrible in and of itself, but when taken in conjunction with Konecny’s shooting percentage, it becomes concerning.
This season, Konecny is shooting at over 20 percent. For comparison, the league average generally hovers around nine percent. Considering that even the likes of Connor McDavid and Sidney Crosby shoot, on average, at 14 to 15 percent, it’s unlikely that Konecny will be able to maintain his shooting percentage. But he’s scored so few goals with scoring at a high pace that it’s scary to imagine how much his production would drop if he started averaging out.
Through the past four seasons, Konecny’s shooting percentage averaged to about 13%. With his current number of shots, that would result in less than four goals. If he kept up that pace for the rest of the 56-game season, he’d record 12 goals. Hopefully, Konecny’s production won’t decline that much – but the stats certainly seem to suggest that his slump will, to some extent, get worse.
Maybe if it had proved less persistent, or this season was longer, or the numbers were more favourable, Konecny’s slump wouldn’t be quite so alarming. However, the reality is that the 24-year-old forward is still underperforming, he’s doing it during a shortened season, and his stats aren’t looking great. The most frustrating thing about Konecny’s slump, though, isn’t any of those factors. No, the really aggravating part is knowing that he does have immense potential. It was on full display last season. But in the end, only Konecny has the power to rediscover that form – and it remains to be seen if he’ll manage to do so.
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