Welcome back to NHL Predictions, March 11th edition! Each day, the Last Word On Hockey team will break down every game and give our NHL predictions for each. This is the final set of NHL Predictions for March 11th featuring the Montreal Canadiens vs Calgary Flames. Be sure and check out the first and second set of NHL Predictions, too.
NHL Predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Detroit Red Wings
Head-to-Head: Lightning 3 – 0 Red Wings
The best goal-scorers in the league are the Lightning and they come up against the worst in the Red Wings for the fourth time this year.
Tampa Bay has been enjoying considerable success across all of its forward lines. Yanni Gourde, Anthony Cirelli and Ondrej Palat are all on pace to break their personal bests for goals scored in a single (82-game) season. Interestingly, all three players were bargain finds for the Lightning during Steve Yzerman‘s reign as Tampa’s general manager. Cirelli and Palat were drafted in the mid-to-late rounds and Gourde was signed by the Bolts after going undrafted in 2014. This fact will surely please Red Wings fans given that Yzerman has since swapped clubs and is now the GM at the helm of their rebuild.
Although, if Detroit plans to take any further positives out of this matchup, the team will have to be more clinical. Statistically, Tampa’s only major weakness is the volume of penalties it gives up; the Lightning concedes the second-most penalty minutes per game (10.5). However, Detroit’s special teams have exhibited a consistent ineptitude, which will make it difficult for them to exploit this glaring weakness. Jeff Blashill’s side is 30th in the league on both the power play and penalty kill.
Prediction: Lightning wins 5-2
Chicago Blackhawks vs Dallas Stars
Head-to-Head: Blackhawks 2 – 1 Stars
Dallas is now on a three-game point streak after thumping the Blackhawks 6-1 on Tuesday night. But it shouldn’t be a surprise that the team is breaking out of its funk.
The Stars’ major issue, throughout a slump that has lasted two-thirds of the team’s season, is their inability to convert on their chances. During the last 15 games (4-7-4), Dallas is ranked seventh in expected goal share (53.13%) and fourth in high-danger chances (56.2%) in all situations. In other words, they have been creating more opportunities than their opponents but have struggled to finish them off.
Stars fans will be thinking that Alexander Radulov‘s return cannot come soon enough. Unfortunately, he is expected to miss Thursday’s game.
On the other hand, Chicago is bleeding goals at the moment. Since going into the first intermission 2-0 up against Tampa Bay on Sunday, the Hawks have played five periods and been out-chanced 39-19 and outscored 11-2. Tuesday night’s loss against Dallas was certainly not the way Patrick Kane envisaged celebrating his 1000th game in the league. It was also a particularly disappointing night for backup goaltender Malcolm Subban. He had been playing some of the best hockey of his career during the Blackhawks’ rise through the Central Division ranks.
Prediction: Stars continue rolling, win 4-3
Montreal Canadiens vs Calgary Flames
Head-to-Head: Canadiens 1 – 1 Flames
The featured matchup for the late-game slate involves two teams who have recently made a coaching change.
This is Darryl Sutter‘s first official game behind the bench as head coach of the Calgary Flames. His team hosts the Canadiens, who are also adjusting to life under newly-promoted head coach Dominique Ducharme. The Flames will be hoping they can turn over a new leaf and solve their major struggle of falling behind in games. Calgary’s 629 minutes and 18 seconds trailing is the seventh-worst record in the NHL.
Meanwhile, the Canadiens have looked better since their coaching change (3-1-3). They have improved on their powerplay numbers, boasting the seventh-best goal rate in the league, a rise of thirteen places from the Julien-era. Furthermore, they have continued to control the flow of play. Over the course of the year, Montreal has led in games for over 655 minutes, which is the third-longest duration league-wide.
Finally, there is also an interesting goalie battle in this matchup. Canadiens backup Jake Allen will likely start in goal after Carey Price played on Wednesday night. Allen has been the perfect support-act in net with a .921 save percentage in nine games. Conversely, Calgary’s starter Jacob Markstrom has struggled to emulate his success from last season. He has given up at least three goals in six straight games and has a suboptimal .881 save percentage in that span.
However, regardless of the Flames’ recent defensive woes, if this match stays close, Calgary should be favoured as the game draws nearer to overtime. Montreal is winless after regulation (0-7) this season. The Habs are also playing the second half of a back-to-back while the Flames are coming in fresh off a three-day break.
Prediction: Flames get a new manager bounce, win 3-2
Main Photo:
Embed from Getty Images
