All the way back on October 6, 2017, Dallas Stars vs Vegas Golden Knights was billed as the Nevada team’s first NHL regular-season game. Nearly three years later, the two Southwest squads are meeting in the Western Conference Final.
Both teams are in this series after finishing off their Second Round series in seven games. The Stars did theirs in extremely dramatic fashion, with Joel Kiviranta sealing the deal with a hat-trick and overtime winner in Game 7. The Golden Knights finally solved an unbeatable Thatcher Demko en route to a Game 7 shutout victory.
The Golden Knights hope their victory in their inaugural game is a sign of things to come. The Stars hope they reach their first Stanley Cup Final since their controversial championship in 1999. Here’s what to expect from the two squads.
Dallas Stars vs Vegas Golden Knights Series Preview
Stars Face Uncertainty in Net
The Stars find themselves in the Western Final largely because of an unexpected offensive explosion. They’re scoring 3.31 goals per game in the playoffs, a stark increase from their 2.58 mark during the regular season. Their goaltending has been the polar opposite. With elite-level seasons from both Ben Bishop and Anton Khudobin, many expected them to be Dallas’ strongest asset in the bubble. They’ve turned out to be their weakest, posting extremely pedestrian numbers.
Due to Bishop’s perennial ‘unfit to play’ status, Khudobin has taken over as the team’s starter. A .930 save percentage during the regular season in 26 starts combined with a GA%- (goals allowed percentage of average) of 78 left many confident in his ability to perform for Dallas. Khudobin’s numbers took a stark turn for the worse as soon as he entered the bubble, however. Despite an 8-5-0 record in 13 starts, Khudobin’s playoff save percentage sits at only .909. The advanced numbers aren’t pretty either, showing a GA%- of 108 and a GSAA (goals saved above average) of -3.18.
When compared to the playoff numbers of Vegas’ Robin Lehner, the level of concern for Dallas increases. After a rough start, Lehner regained form in their series against the Vancouver Canucks. He’s posted a .918 save percentage, three shutouts, and a GA%- of 97, all above-average numbers. The Stars could find themselves in trouble facing stronger goaltending than Colorado’s combination of Pavel Francouz and Michael Hutchinson had to offer.
Both Teams Led by Youth on the Back End
There are few player matchups in this series more interesting on an individual level than the one between Miro Heiskanen and Shea Theodore.
Heiskanen, Dallas’ 20-year-old Finnish prodigy, has inarguably been their most valuable and most impressive skater. While he doesn’t lead the team in goals during the playoffs, he leads them in assists (16), points (21), and average time on ice (25:54). He’s one of five Dallas regulars to post a CF% (Corsi For percentage) of over 50 percent at even strength, demonstrating that Dallas struggles to control the play without him. He’s also trusted by his coaches to limit opportunities against, with 52 percent of his zone starts occurring in the defensive zone.
Theodore, older at the ripe age of 24, leads the Knights in many of the same metrics. He carries the team lead in assists (10) and points (16) but is eclipsed in average time on ice by Nate Schmidt and Alec Martinez. That isn’t to take away from Theodore’s dominance, however. His play is highlighted by an incredible CF% of 60.5, meaning the Knights control play more than 60 percent of the play when Theodore is on the ice. His isolated impact is positive as well, posting a relative CF% of 0.7. Despite Heiskanen’s lead in points, Theodore is slightly more trusted to generate chances offensively. 56.1 percent of his shots are getting through on the net. 52.4 percent of his zone starts are coming in the offensive zone.
Heiskanen’s ability to control play will be crucial in shutting down Vegas’ nonstop offensive onslaught. Theodore’s ability to generate offence from the back end will be necessary to cut through a physical and stingy Dallas squad. The performance of both is incredibly important to their teams.
Vegas Gets the Edge on Depth
Despite Dallas’ recent offensive explosion, the sheer depth of Vegas’ attack will pose problems for the Stars. Dallas’ top-six forward group has largely been responsible for production. On the flip side, though, they have many players in their bottom-six who have struggled to produce. Their fourth line of Andrew Cogliano, Jason Dickinson, and Blake Comeau have combined for only seven points during the playoff run. While Vegas has had a rotating centre on their fourth line due to Tomas Nosek‘s injuries, Ryan Reaves and William Carrier alone have seven points.
Dallas’ depth has still been impressive compared to their regular-season standards. However, they’ll have a harder time producing against a healthy Vegas defence. Vegas’ defensive depth, namely Nick Holden and Zach Whitecloud, have been incredibly at controlling play. Even with Vegas’ overall possessive dominance, Holden’s posted a relative Corsi For of 5.6 percent, while Whitecloud’s is 2.9 percent. Considering Dallas’ depth like their fourth line and players such as Corey Perry will likely face matchups against these two, it’s hard to envision their production keeping up.
Conclusion
After impressive runs from both teams, it’s a shame one has to bow out. However, the Knights carry the edge in virtually every aspect of the game. They’ve proven themselves to have stronger goaltending, stronger shot suppression, and stronger possession metrics than the Stars. Dallas’ offence will be in tough to generate chances, and their offensive explosion will likely dry up relatively quickly.
Prediction: Golden Knights win in five games, advance to their second Stanley Cup Final in franchise history.
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