The Tampa Bay Lightning haven’t won a Stanley Cup since 2004. This is despite fielding several truly impressive rosters since then. Their organization has seen more than its fair share of close calls and disappointments. Perhaps none more disappointing than last season’s shocking and embarrassing first-round elimination. As the 19-20 season draws closer to resuming play amidst a global pandemic, and as the Lightning fan base gets ever more anxious from watching talented teams fail to live up to their potential year after year, it seems like a good idea to examine both what went wrong last year. As well as why you might have reasons for optimism in the rest of the Tampa Bay Lightning season.
Tampa Bay Lightning Season Shows Reasons For Optimism
What Went Wrong Last Year
In the 2018-19 regular season, the Lightning were a nearly unstoppable force, winning a jaw-dropping and league record-tying 62 games. The Lightning were good everywhere on the ice but were especially potent on offence. Scoring 325 goals and finishing the season with a goal differential of +103. The NHL hasn’t seen a team dominate quite like that in decades at best, or maybe ever. So how did things go off the rails in the postseason?
The NHL is teetering on the edge of having to cancel what remains of the 2019-20 season altogether. But to a lot of Tampa fans, a promising season cancelled due to a pandemic might feel merciful. Especially when compared to the gut-punch that was the 2019 playoffs. The Lightning were unceremoniously swept out of the postseason by a Blue Jackets squad that just barely qualified as a wildcard. They also had several star players very publicly speculated to be on their way out at the conclusion of the season such as Matt Duchene and Sergei Bobrovsky. It hurts to dwell on the past, but diagnosing what went wrong will allow us to better understand why this season might play out differently.
Out Of Gas
The NHL regular season is a long and gruelling 82 games. The Tampa Bay Lightning season was filled with operating at peak or near-peak performance for over six months straight. That is no small feat, to be sure. But it seems to have come at a cost, and it isn’t unfair to assume that this team finally ran out of gas at the conclusion of the regular season.
Importantly, the team was very aware in the final weeks of the season that they were chasing history. So, instead of coasting to a comfortable first-place finish in the conference, they pushed hard to the finish line in an attempt to break the league’s single-season win record. While what they accomplished is certainly noteworthy, would they have been better served by taking their foot off the gas and focusing on the upcoming postseason instead?
Kucherov’s Disappearance
Nikita Kucherov had a legendary regular season, scoring 41 goals and posting 128 points, which won him the Hart Trophy, Art Ross, and Ted Lindsay awards. He then mysteriously vanished in the postseason, scoring no goals and only two assists. All of this while taking a one-game suspension for his hit on Markus Nutivaara.
Of course, the team around Kucherov was still theoretically good enough to have played better than they did. However, the lack of production from a player of Kucherov’s calibre will absolutely be felt on the ice. This is especially true when he was getting nearly 22 minutes of ice-time per game.
Not Ready for Adversity
If last season’s cup champion St Louis Blues taught us anything, its that the road to the Stanley Cup is paved with adversity. You will be tested along the way, and you need to be able to get to another gear when your tests come. Unfortunately for Tampa Bay, the drawback to winning 62 of 82 games is that you don’t face much adversity.
There are no long losing streaks to battle through, no backs-against-the-wall moments, and no soul-searching stretches where you are forced to push through doubts. Success is great as long as it lasts, but with the parity in today’s NHL, you will inevitably have to deal with setbacks. Maybe it shouldn’t have been such a shock that a team as unfamiliar with setbacks as the 2018-19 Lightning collapsed under the pressure of their first real test.
Will This Year Be Different?
It can be hard to revisit what happened last year, but the good news is that this year brings an opportunity to redeem the pride of a very talented Tampa Bay squad. There may be some very good reasons to be optimistic about their chances to win it all this year. So, let’s take a look at the good for the Tampa Bay Lightning season.
Familiar Roster
A few exceptions aside, Tampa Bay has a largely identical team this year to what it had last year. Pat Maroon was added in the offseason and has had a somewhat muted impact after winning the cup last year. But like it was with St Louis, his impact is expected to be most noticeable in the playoffs where his size and grit will both fill a void in Tampa’s roster, and also give opponents fits over the course of a long series. Kevin Shattenkirk has also had a bit of a resurgence in a Tampa bay sweater. He was bought out of his contract by the New York Rangers before this season began.
After those two names, every significant player on this roster is returning from last season’s record-setting squad. The talent is definitely there on this team, and more importantly, this is a team that has to be playing with a chip on their shoulder.
Adversity
We just talked about adversity. What this team went through last postseason is the strongest type of adversity there is. We saw a similarly embarrassing display in college basketball in 2018 with the Virginia Cavaliers, who were the first 1 seed ever to lose to a 16 seed in the history of the March Madness tournament. But Virginia handled that setback perfectly. They also demonstrated what the effect of playing with that kind of chip on your shoulder can be. The Cavaliers were able to refocus the following year, entering the tournament as a 1 seed again, and then achieving the ultimate redemption by winning the NCAA Championship.
If Tampa Bay can channel that kind of determination and frustration into their on-ice performance, that level of focused aggression combined with their talent could absolutely see incredibly positive results.
Healthy Team
The one good thing to say about how COVID-19 has impacted this NHL season is that every team has had a chance to get healthy before the playoffs get underway. Compared to an out of gas 2019 Lightning team, this year’s group should enter the playoffs at full speed.
Everyone has seen what Tampa can do at the top of their game. The notion of a focused, angry, and fully healthy Lightning team will rightfully terrify their first opponent. Unfortunately, with the current format, we don’t yet know who that opponent will be. But assuming everyone stays largely healthy through the round-robin games that the top four teams of each conference will be playing, Tampa Bay has to be considered the favourite against whichever team they play first. A healthy and fully rested roster presents the best possible opportunity that Tampa Bay has had to utilize their talent advantage over most other NHL teams.
Defense Comes Last After Long Breaks
Historically, we see goals per game numbers peak in the early parts of NHL seasons, and then slowly decline throughout the year as the teams tighten their defence and find their chemistry. We’ve now gone months with no games played. The return to play formula is still going to be highly unconventional. This means that it may be very reasonable to assume that we’ll see a similarly slow start for defences in this tournament, as the stingy defence is typically the hardest part of the game for NHL teams to find. If so, the most talented offensive teams will benefit the most from this break in play. That could play right into Tampa Bay’s hands.
The Lightning aren’t just one line of talented players. They come after you wave after wave with all four lines. Victor Hedman also leads a talented group on the back end who are also capable of leading the rush and driving offence.
This year saw the Lightning struggle substantially more than last year. Yet, Tampa Bay still leads the entire NHL in goals scored. If this break does end up favouring the more offensive-minded teams, that could be the best news yet for Tampa Bay. A franchise that is ready to restore their pride and claim their second Stanley Cup championship.
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