One of the many surprises this NHL season has been the strong play of the Montreal Canadiens. Many (including yours truly) predicted the Habs would likely be missing the playoffs and (hopefully) compete for a lottery pick. To top it off, they were also expected to be a difficult watch. The Habs had other plans, however. Equipped with a new fast style of play, the Canadiens have been fun to watch this year. Moreover, they have been winning games. As of the writing of this article, the Habs hold a 28-18-5 record and sit in third place in the Atlantic. They are two points up on Boston and one back of the second-place Toronto Maple Leafs. Heading into the back half of the season, the NHL trade deadline is just around the corner. What can fans expect from the Montreal Canadiens at the trade deadline?
What To Expect From the Montreal Canadiens at the Trade Deadline
The Canadiens are in a tricky spot heading into the deadline. Having surpassed expectations so far, the logical thinking would be that the Canadiens should be ‘buyers’ come deadline day. After all, the team has played so well, they deserve to take a shot here. Still, nobody would argue that the Habs are a serious contender for the Stanley Cup. It doesn’t make much sense to pay the price for a rental when the team is more than one piece away. Needless to say, the Habs have plenty of options heading into the trade deadline.
Buyers
The Habs are sitting comfortably in the Eastern Conference playoff picture. Currently third in the Atlantic, the Habs are two points up on Boston and three up on Pittsburgh in the Wild Card. They are also seven points up on the Buffalo Sabres and Carolina Hurricanes; the two teams chasing the Wild Card. With second place in the Atlantic within striking distance, the Habs should add to their roster. Even though the Habs are not considered true contenders, their general manager should look to reward his team and their strong play. Despite their strong play, the Habs have some holes that need to be filling.
Defence
The biggest hole on the roster is a left-handed defenceman to play with Shea Weber. The idea that the Habs could land a top pairing defenceman at the deadline is small and it would cost a lot. Still, names like Jake Muzzin, Jay Bouwmeester and Alexander Edler are rumoured to be available. While none of these players are long term solutions to the Habs issue on defence, if the Habs feel like they have a playoff run in them they might want to take a long look. The Habs defence has been an issue all season. However, once Weber returned to the Habs lineup, the defence has stabilized a bit. Adding another top piece could turn a liability into a strength.
Offence
Another way Bergevin could go is offence. While the Habs have been very successful 5 on 5, their offence has begun to slow down some. Also, their power play is the worst in the league running at a 12.6% clip. The power play has been an issue all season and, if we are going to be honest, the past few seasons. There is no shortage of offensive players available. Players like Matt Duchene, Gustav Nyquist and Brayden Schenn have been mentioned in rumours. A name that would be interesting for the Habs is Wayne Simmonds of the Flyers.
Simmonds is a big body that gets into the dirty areas. He also has good hands. He can help the Habs power play by giving them a strong net-front presence. While players like Andrew Shaw and Joel Armia have tried to fill that role, neither of them have the hands of Simmonds. If the Habs were able to bring their power play even up to mediocre it could be the difference between a playoff run and missing the playoffs.
Cap Space
Probably the biggest asset the Habs have is their cap space. Right now they have just over $9M in free cap room. The Canadiens ability to get a good player while taking on a bad contract to free up cap room for another team might be just as valuable as prospects. Marc Bergevin already made a move like this when he acquired Armea along with Steve Mason from Winnipeg. The Habs took on Mason’s contract and the Jets added Armea as an incentive. This type of move could be in play. If the Habs have some interest in Muzzin, for example, Bergevin could take on a contract the Kings want to shed rather than give up too much in prospects or picks.
Sellers
The Habs are in the first real season of Marc Bergevin‘s ‘reset’ of the Montreal Canadiens. After a disastrous 2017-18 season, something had to change. Change they did. The Habs went from a slow defensive team to a quick offensive team. Still, the job is not all the way done. It might be foolish for the Habs to go all in this year, with the roster still incomplete. It is hard to argue that this team is one player away. They also spent the past two offseason’s restocking their prospect pool. It’s gone from one of the worst to best in that time. They are not ready to start trading off pieces for the last piece of the puzzle. These types of turnarounds don’t normally take one season. While the Habs have been a happy surprise this year, it’s not the time to change course. The Habs should continue to stockpile picks and prospects.
The only rental on the Habs roster right now would be Jordie Benn. While not a name that will get anyone really excited, he has rebounded after a terrible year in 2017-18. He has provided the Habs with some solid defensive play in their bottom pair, who can play up the lineup if needed. While they still have term left, the Habs would welcome almost any trade that sees Karl Alzner and David Schlemko out of Montreal.
Cap Space
While it wouldn’t exactly be a ‘selling’ move, the Habs could use their cap space to acquire more futures. Bergevin could take on a bad contract from a team looking to add at the deadline and bring in some prospects or young NHL ready players to complete the deal. It’s a strategy Vegas used almost to perfection during the expansion draft. The Habs are in an ideal situation to try to exploit some desperate teams looking for that last piece to put them over the top.
Standing Pat
The Canadiens could choose to stay the course when the trade deadline comes. With the team is not quite ready to make a serious run at the Cup but also not tanking the season, it might be difficult for the Habs to make a move one way or the other. It might not be what the fans or media want, because let’s face it everyone loves to dissect trades, it might be the best thing to do.
With the price of rentals and players at a premium, Bergevin will not want to part with some of the high draft picks or highly touted prospects it might cost for a player. Especially for someone that will only be with the Habs for a few months.
The other side of it is that the Habs do not have any ageing veterans on expiring contracts. Other than Benn, most of the Habs players with any kind of value are locked into contracts. It will be hard to leverage any kind of prospect or pick from teams who are looking for a short term player.
Bergevin Past Moves
Marc Bergevin has a decent track record at the deadline. He has shown a willingness to be aggressive by trading for Thomas Vanek and Jeff Petry in the past. Bergevin has also shown a proficiency for selling at the deadline as well. He was able to turn Dale Wiess and Tomas Fleischmann into Phillip Danault and a second round pick. Tomas Plekanec was traded for a second round pick and some prospects. Still, he also made a terrible decision by bringing in Steve Ott, Andreas Martinsen and Dwight King as well.
He has shown an ability to pull off some shrewd moves and for the most part, does quite well at the deadline. Still, even when the Habs were in contending decisions, he showed a reluctance to pull the trigger and a major move.
Decisions
Bergevin can go in any direction at the deadline. The safest and least exciting would be to stand pat but it might also be the smartest. The Habs are not in a spot to overpay for a rental player in their current state. While the Habs front office has done a remarkable job in overhauling their prospect pool in the last two seasons, they would be foolish to start chipping away at it when they still have so much more to do to be a contender. The Habs also don’t have any rental players they can trade for draft capital.
One thing Marc Bergevin should not do is also one of his favourite things to do; work the fringes of the roster. Bergevin loves to acquire depth. While there is significant value to having depth, it has become the hallmark of his team building. The Habs have specific needs and trying to address them with depth players is not the answer. If he can’t get a trade to improve in those areas, he is better off staying out of the deadline madness. Marc Bergevin wants to make a hockey trade, that’s for sure. Unfortunately, the trade deadline is rarely the place for that kind of move.
