The other day, Christian Holmes from LWOH wrote an article on why The Toronto Maple Leafs should trade William Nylander. This is a well-written article that brings up some good talking points. It is worth a read because the topic is one that is very debatable. However, this got me thinking about trading Nylander. What it would do for the Leafs and Nylander’s own situation. The more I thought about it, the more I realized, it doesn’t make sense for the Leafs to trade William Nylander.
Trading William Nylander Now Doesn’t Make Sense
Value
The starting point for me is the fact that William Nylander’s value may never be lower than it is at this moment. Nylander is currently coming off of back-to-back 60 point seasons despite not getting as much time on the top power-play unit as other top scorers. He is also in the middle of a contract holdout.
The idea that teams would be lining up around the block to trade valuable pieces for him just doesn’t make sense. A player who is holding out for $8 million or more on a good team is not going to have teams wanting to give up their top prospects or players. The fact that Nylander doesn’t have a contract yet more than likely will scare teams, thus making the return less.
We have seen in the past that defenseman are much more valued than wingers. It seems extremely unlikely a team will be willing to give up a stud top-pairing defenceman for a winger. There is no sense in trading a better player just to say you upgraded in a different area of the ice if it makes your overall team worse.
Future Value And Cap Space
The biggest concern from people is that “The Leafs can’t keep everyone, they don’t have the Cap Space!”. While this really is a lazy narrative as there certainly are ways to make it work, even if they had to trade him down the road they could get much more for him. William Nylander cannot have a No Move or Trade Clause on this contract. It really doesn’t matter on the length of the contract, if the Leafs needed to trade him in two years they could.
If he signs an eight-year deal for anything between $6.5 and $8 million there is a very good chance he proves to be worth it. There is certainly a possibility a team gives up big assets for him down the road if the Leafs decided to move him. He would still have the term at decent value left, making it a very movable contract.
If he signs a year bridge deal? That is also movable. The AAV would be lower and there would likely still be a year left on the contract with Nylander being an RFA at the end of it. Being able to sell to a team that he has great results, a year or two left, and RFA status could bring in a better return than what they will get now.
The Leafs Best Chance Is To Win Now
This may be the biggest reason to keep William Nylander. There is no reason to suggest he will sit out a full year and him being back in the lineup at some point before December 1st gives the Leafs the best chance to win. The Leafs have a big window to win ahead of them, however, there is a great opportunity now.
No other season will you have Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner on ELCs. As the years go on the Leafs will likely find it harder to stay under the cap. There are certainly ways to do it, however, going for it now while you have room for great young players and more expensive rentals seem like a great idea.
Unless they find a team willing enough to give up a legit top pair right-handed defenceman they are just hurting their chances of winning by trading away the better player. The Leafs hold Nylander’s rights so there is no fear of losing him at the end of the year like a rental. Give yourself the best chance of winning immediately and keep William Nylander.
The Leafs Don’t Need To Trade Nylander To Upgrade Defense
The biggest criticism of the Leafs being a contender is the defence core. While it certainly isn’t the best in the league, it isn’t the worst either. Saying “It’s awful” is really overlooking the left side. With Morgan Rielly, Jake Gardiner and now Travis Dermott, that left side is one of the best in the league.
The issue becomes the right side. Ron Hainsey still started this year as the top right-handed defender for pairings. However, the Leafs do have prospects like Timothy Liljegren in the minors that may be able to step up sooner than later. This D-core doesn’t need a giant move to fix it even for the time being. It more or less needs an upgrade on the right side along with proper usage.
Asking the price on Vancouver Canucks Chris Tanev at the deadline may be a good idea. Or see if the Florida Panthers would be willing to move Mark Pysyk. The return on either of these players would not be a William Nylander. However, one of these two players and proper usage of Nikita Zaitsev in the top four could really improve this defensive core. Moving Nylander just because does not have to be the way to go.
He Will Sign
The last reason to not trade William Nylander is simply he will sign. Since the last lockout, not a single RFA has held out for an entire season. William Nylander has expressed his love for Toronto more than once and is currently receiving the benefits of being a star in a major market through ad campaigns. It seems insanely foolish to imply that a player that loves the city and position the team is headed will be the first to sit out all year.
It would benefit the Leafs more if he signs on long-term, however, even a bridge deal is do-able. Nylander’s agent has been known to hold out longer than most and at the end of the day, it’s most beneficial for Nylander to sign.
If money is what it comes down to, threatening to go to the KHL or SHL wouldn’t make sense either. He would have to play five seasons there before he became a UFA and over those five seasons, he’d almost certainly be taking a big pay cut from the reported $6 million or more that Toronto is offering him.
Nylander Should Be A Leaf By The End Of This Season
Overall, it just doesn’t make sense for Toronto to force a William Nylander trade. In the NHL obviously, things change. However, you should not be forcing a trade just for the sake of making a trade. Unless the Leafs truly believe the return is a better player than Nylander there is no need to trade him. Regardless of the type of contract he signs, the position the Leafs are in to go for it now is much more beneficial than trading him for an inferior player a mid-round draft pick.
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