One of the most famous betting stories in the English Premier League revolves around Leicester City winning the title in 2016. The unfancied side were given odds of up to 5000/1 by some bookmakers, a price that was snapped up by just a handful of the most optimistic fans. Nobody thought it could happen, but it did, and those loyal fans were rewarded for betting with their hearts and not their heads.
While the fairy tale did not pan out in the same manner for the Vegas Golden Knights in NHL last season, sportsbooks certainly got a scare as they watch the expansion team win game after game en route to the Stanley Cup Finals. The odds offered at the start of the season were as big as 500/1 with some books. It’s safe to say the bookies got off lightly when the Capitals, who were nonetheless also a big price, lifted the Stanley Cup in June.
Vegas viewed as a completely different prospect this term
Aside from the irony of the first ever team from Las Vegas nearly delivering a fatal blow to sportsbooks, the side’s success has meant that top sports betting platforms from Canada and elsewhere have been reluctant to rule several sides out of the running. The Golden Knights themselves have been given odds of 17/1 from Leo Vegas. Quite the climbdown from the 500/1 a year ago.
Sure, several teams are still given big odds of 100/1. But, as Vegas showed last season, that price does not mean you should rule out the Ottawa Senators or Detroit Red Wings altogether. In saying that, by and large, the bookmakers usually get it right, so it’s highly unlikely the Stanley Cup will be coming home to those cities in June next year.
Tavares move caused Maple Leafs’ odds to tumble
Of course, some moves in the offseason mean the bookmakers have to take notice. The deal that everyone was talking about this summer, John Tavares moving to the Maple Leafs, immediately caused a stir in betting circles. Some sportsbooks ‘dived straight in’, putting the Maple Leafs as the new favourites at around 7/1 to win the Stanley Cup next season.
Others were again a little more cautious, keeping Tampa Bay Lightning in there as the favourites, with odds also coming in about 7/1. That’s totally understandable, given the Lightning were arguably the most formidable team in NHL last season. They have retained the services of key players, meaning most pundits reckon they will be in the mix again once the season begins.
Champions look like good betting value
As for the champions, they are floating around the position of sixth-favourites, with odds of 11/1 or so. The jury is certainly out on whether the sportsbooks have sold the chances of the Capitals too high or too low, but the consensus seems to be that they grew in stature last season. It’s a difficult call.
Nothing can be ruled out, of course, as there are still many factors that can put a different spin on the season in weeks or months from now. But there certainly signs that sportsbooks are reluctant to go all-in on a team or to dismiss a team’s chances altogether. Let’s hope that’s an omen for a vintage season ahead.
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