The Toronto Maple Leafs have had their ups and downs this season. It started out where Frederik Andersen couldn’t make a save, yet the Leafs could score at will. Then November rolls around and the roles switch. Andersen became one of the hottest goalies from November through January, but the team seemed to lose its scoring touch.
Now, since February, the Leafs new line combinations have made the team better overall, with both scoring and goaltending balancing out. Being 19-7-2 since Feb. 2, the Maple Leafs Stanley Cup chances are strong.
Toronto Maple Leafs Stanley Cup Chances Are Strong
Interesting quote tonight from Mike Babcock, referencing the Leafs' chances of contending for the Cup this year: pic.twitter.com/LjFUreAy4G
— Jonas Siegel (@jonassiegel) March 25, 2018
Mike Babcock said this prior to a 4-3 victory over the Detroit Red Wings, before the Leafs had mathematically clinched a playoff spot, but when it was highly improbable they would miss. They were preparing themselves for the playoffs and the coach decided to give his team a vote of confidence.
The Leafs could easily bring down any of the teams in the first two rounds. Toronto has played extraordinarily well against the top teams in the league this season. The top three teams from the West are the Nashville Predators, Winnipeg Jets, and the Vegas Golden Knights. From the East, the title belongs to the Boston Bruins, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Toronto Maple Leafs. Since it is clear the Leafs cannot play themselves, that leaves 5 teams. Against the top five teams in the NHL, the Leafs have an 8-5-1 record, only going below a 0.500 record against the Lightning.
The Numbers
While looking at records is fun, the numbers are the best predictors for what is to come. The Leafs have the second-highest expected goals for in the league. This is to be expected, having such forward depth that they would produce such quality offense. They also have great special teams, ranking third in the league with 24.4 percent on the powerplay and ranking 11th with their penalty kill unit, killing 81.3 percent of the penalties they have taken.
They are also tied with the Predators in PDO for second, which can be used to define luck in the NHL, but because of all of their offensive skill, they would have a naturally higher shooting percentage for the team to drive the numbers up. They are often in the top part of the league with offensive numbers, showing how good their offense is.
The Leafs problem, to nobody’s surprise, is the lack of solid defense. The Leafs are middle of the pack with a 49.88 corsi for percentage ranking at 17th in the league. They also rank 27th with a 2.56 xGA/60. The defense leaves something to be desired with this team, and has held them back in the past. It could be the major flaw preventing the team from running for the Stanley Cup.
The Depth That Defines The Leafs
The team has some impressive feats though this season. They have three 30+ goal scorers, which no other team has yet to accomplish, and two 50+ point defensemen in Jake Gardiner and Morgan Rielly. Only Roman Josi and P.K. Subban of the Predators have also accomplished the feat this season.
The Leafs are tied for sixth in the NHL standings and have been a force to be reckoned with. Their forward depth allows them to play four lethal lines that have the chance to score at any moment. Andreas Johnsson has been great since being called up with the Leafs, although he may sit, along with Josh Leivo, for the playoffs. The Leafs can definitely make a Cup run, but they would need to potentially face two of the best teams in the NHL in Boston and Tampa Bay within the first two rounds. It’s not unthinkable, but the Leafs need to play tight defensively to give themselves a chance.
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