With the NHL trade deadline approaching, playoff teams are trying to load up. Rather than signing the popular names, Toronto Maple Leafs outcast Josh Leivo could be the perfect addition to a contending team.
Josh Leivo is Ideal Trade Target
There are tons of wingers available for rent right now. Some of the most likely to move include Rick Nash, Evander Kane, Patrick Maroon, and Michael Grabner. Although these names will definitely provide value, teams should get more creative and try to acquire Josh Leivo instead. Leivo spends most of his time in the Leafs press box, or on the fourth line. As a result, most people probably have no idea who he is, never mind consider him valuable. So to see why Leivo could be an ideal target, let’s look at how he has performed at even strength. First, let’s compare his point production to some other wingers on the market. (All data will be from Corsica, the sample includes this year and the previous two.)
Leivo Versus the Other Rental’s
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Leivo’s sample is small (37 games), so take his results with a grain of salt. If we accept the small sample, it’s hard to ignore how impressive his results are. His 2.24 points per hour at even strength is higher than all of these more well-known commodities, and it’s not even close. In fourth-line minutes, Levio’s point production is almost elite. Only about 25 or so forwards score at that clip in a given year. As for his competition, they fall around the top 100-150 range. Again, Levio has a much smaller sample so this isn’t to say he is definitely better than the other wingers, but early results indicate he has more upside. When we look past points, we see a similar story.
Digging Deeper
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Let’s start by looking at relative Corsi for Percentage which is represented by the blue bar. This is simply what percentage of shots a team controls with a player on the ice, minus when they are off. This means that the Leafs control two percent more of the shots while Leivo is on the ice relative to when he is off, giving him the highest Corsi Rel on the list.
Then we have relative Expected Goals for Percentage in orange. This takes all of those shots and weighs them for how likely they are to go in (shot quality). When the shots are weighted for danger, the Leafs have improved by seven percent with Levio on the ice. This gives him the highest relative Expected Goals for percentage on the list by a mile. Combine these numbers and we can see that Leivo has been better than the others at driving shots and scoring chances. This means he might provide even more value than his points.
What makes these results even more impressive is the team Levio plays on. Playing in Toronto, he definitely plays for a better team than anyone else on this list. This means that Leivo improves an already good team, while his competition improves mediocre ones. Between the points and his ability to drive shots and chances, Leivo definitely has more upside potential than any of these other rentals and should get serious consideration by a team loading up. This leaves us with one final question, what does a fair deal for Leivo look like?
How to Aquire Leivo
Statistically, Leivo has crushed his opponents, so why would the Leafs be looking to deal him? For starters, he reportedly requested a trade this month. The team came out and denied it, so the current status of their relationship is unclear. But at very least we can conclude Mike Babcock clearly does not value Leivo. If he did, he would have played more than 37 games under him. Since Leivo rarely plays, the team has to be listening to offers, and there are three ways a deal could be made.
Take Matt Martin Too
First up is the most unrealistic option – take the Matt Martin contract back too. Martin has fallen out of favour in Toronto and carries a $2,500,000 cap hit for two more years. The Leafs apparently might even be willing to retain on him, so if you offered to eat the full contract with Leivo as the incentive, the Leaf’s just could not refuse. The problem with this strategy is that good teams generally don’t have the space to take back bad deals. This makes this option unlikely, but fringe teams like the New Jersey Devils and Colorado Avalanche could think about it.
Offer A Good Depth Center
Next up is a slightly more probable option: giving the Leafs a good depth centre in return. The Leafs aren’t in love with Dominic Moore as their fourth-line centre and have expressed interested in Luke Glendening as a result. It wouldn’t be too difficult to offer them a more enticing player than Glendening. If a team can help them stabilize their fourth line centre position, they would probably give Leivo in exchange. Again, the problem is contenders usually don’t sell, but maybe somebody needs scoring on the wing more than a depth centre.
A Simple Draft Pick
Finally, we have the most likely scenario: offer the Leafs a draft pick. They just traded Nikita Soshnikov for a fourth-round pick, but a team would have to do better than that. Because of the reasons listed at the beginning, trading a second-round pick would be fair for Leivo. For a player they don’t even play, they would have to accept that.
It’s important to emphasize one more time that Leivo’s sample is small. So he may not be better than some of the other wingers available. However, when Leivo does play, he scores at a high clip and dramatically improves the Leafs shot and chance differentials. Maybe he regresses hard, or maybe all he needed was ice time and you can get that top-six scorer for peanuts. It is a gamble, but Josh Leivo could be the perfect trade deadline target.
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