It’s difficult to use NHL preseason records as any sort of definitive measuring stick.
That’s because teams have varying approaches and goals for the exhibition season. Some coaches utilize the preseason to assess their fourth line talent, finalize their defence corps, or see their third string goalie in action. Others believe it’s important to set a winning tone early in hopes that it carries through to when the games begin to matter, or give their regulars significant playing time to make sure they’re in shape.
That may make you skeptical that NHL preseason records matter at all, or that they can be indicative of what to expect when the regular season begins. But if you do a little research, you might be surprised by what you’d find.
(Sorry, Montreal Canadiens fans, but the 2-6 record your Habs put up in preseason play this fall might be more reason for worry than you think.)
Here’s a look at the three best and three worst exhibition records over the last 10 seasons (excluding 2012, when there was no preseason due to the lockout), along with how those teams finished in the regular season.
Comparing NHL Preseason Records To Regular Season Records Over The Last 10 Seasons
2016
- Detroit: 6-1-1 preseason, 33-36-13 regular season (missed playoffs)
- Colorado: 6-0 preseason, 22-56-4 regular season (missed playoffs)
- Arizona: 5-1-2 preseason, 30-42-10 regular season (missed playoffs)
- Chicago: 2-4 preseason, 50-23-9 regular season (won Central)
- Anaheim: 2-4-1 preseason, 46-23-13 regular season (won Pacific)
- Toronto: 2-4 preseason, 40-27-15 regular season (made playoffs)
2015
- Detroit: 6-0-2 preseason, 41-30-11 regular season (made playoffs)
- Washington: 5-0-2 preseason, 56-18-8 regular season (won President’s Trophy)
- Anaheim: 5-0-1 preseason, 46-25-11 regular season (won Pacific)
- Dallas: 1-6 preseason, 50-23-9 regular season (won Central)
- Arizona: 0-4-2 preseason, 35-39-9 regular season (missed playoffs)
- Colorado: 1-4-1 preseason, 39-39-4 regular season (missed playoffs)
2014
- Columbus: 7-1 preseason, 42-35-5 regular season (missed playoffs)
- Los Angeles: 5-0-2 preseason, 40-27-15 regular season (missed playoffs)
- Tampa Bay: 5-1 preseason, 50-24-8 regular season (made playoffs)
- Florida: 0-4-2 preseason, 38-29-15 regular season (missed playoffs)
- Carolina: 2-5 preseason, 30-41-11 regular season (missed playoffs)
- Colorado: 1-5-2 preseason, 39-31-12 regular season (missed playoffs)
2013
- Boston: 6-1 preseason, 54-19-9 regular season (won Atlantic)
- Dallas: 5-0-2 preseason, 40-31-11 regular season (made playoffs)
- Washington: 4-0-4 preseason, 38-30-14 regular season (missed playoffs)
- N.Y. Rangers: 1-5 preseason, 45-31-6 regular season (made playoffs)
- Philadelphia: 1-5-1 preseason, 42-30-10 regular season (made playoffs)
- Winnipeg: 1-4-3 preseason, 37-35-10 regular season (missed playoffs)
2011
- Nashville: 7-1 preseason, 48-26-8 regular season (made playoffs)
- Dallas: 6-1 preseason, 42-35-5 regular season (missed playoffs)
- Pittsburgh: 5-1 preseason, 51-25-6 regular season (made playoffs)
- N.Y. Islanders: 1-4 preseason, 34-37-11 regular season (missed playoffs)
- Florida: 1-4-1 preseason, 38-26-18 regular season (made playoffs)
- Carolina: 1-4-1 preseason, 33-33-16 regular season (missed playoffs)
2010
- Calgary: 7-0 preseason, 41-29-12 regular season (missed playoffs)
- Washington: 5-1 preseason, 48-23-11 regular season (won Southeast)
- Pittsburgh: 5-1 preseason, 49-25-8 regular season (made playoffs)
- Atlanta: 0-5-1 preseason, 34-36-12 regular season (missed playoffs)
- N.Y. Islanders: 1-4 preseason, 30-39-13 regular season (missed playoffs)
- Minnesota: 1-4-2 preseason, 39-35-8 regular season (missed playoffs)
2009
- Vancouver: 7-0-2 preseason, 49-28-5 regular season (won Northwest)
- St. Louis: 5-1-1 preseason, 40-32-10 regular season (missed playoffs)
- New Jersey: 4-0-1 preseason, 48-27-7 regular season (won Atlantic)
- Pittsburgh: 1-4-1 preseason, 47-28-7 regular season (made playoffs)
- Ottawa: 2-4 preseason, 44-23-6 regular season (made playoffs)
- N.Y. Islanders: 2-5-1 preseason, 34-37-11 regular season (missed playoffs)
2008
- Detroit: 6-1-2 preseason, 51-21-10 regular season (won Central)
- Vancouver: 6-0-1 preseason, 45-27-1 regular season (won Northwest)
- Anaheim: 6-1-1 preseason, 42-33-7 regular season (made playoffs)
- Atlanta: 1-5 preseason, 35-41-6 regular season (missed playoffs)
- Dallas: 1-5-1 preseason, 36-35-11 regular season (missed playoffs)
- Phoenix: 2-5-1 preseason, 36-39-11 regular season (missed playoffs)
2007
- Ottawa: 6-0 preseason, 43-31-8 regular season (made playoffs)
- San Jose: 5-0-2 preseason, 49-23-10 regular season (won Pacific)
- Colorado: 4-0-2 preseason, 44-31-7 regular season (made playoffs)
- Boston: 1-3-1 preseason, 41-29-12 regular season (made playoffs)
- St. Louis: 2-5 preseason, 33-36-13 regular season (missed playoffs)
- Calgary: 2-5-1 preseason, 42-30-10 regular season (made playoffs)
2006
- Chicago: 7-1 preseason, 31-42-9 regular season (missed playoffs)
- Detroit: 6-1-2 preseason, 50-19-13 regular season (won Central)
- Buffalo: 5-1 preseason, 53-22-7 regular season (won Northeast)
- St. Louis: 1-5 preseason, 34-35-13 regular season (missed playoffs)
- Philadelphia: 1-5-1 preseason, regular season (missed playoffs)
- Florida: 2-5-1 preseason, 35-31-16 regular season (missed playoffs)
So Do NHL Preseason Records Matter?
As you can see, there are no hard and fast rules here.
In 2016, for example, the teams with the three best preseason records all missed the playoffs, while the teams with the three worst preseason records qualified for postseason play. In fact, two of those teams with poor preseason records last year (the Blackhawks and Ducks) ended up winning their divisions.
Stretch the results over the larger and more reliable sample size of a 10-year period, however, and there are some trends that might make you believe NHL preseason records can be an indicator of what to expect in the regular season.
Since 2006, 20 of the 30 teams (67%) who had one of the three best preseason records went on to make the playoffs. And in that span, only 11 of the 30 teams (37%) with one of the three worst records in exhibition play ended up qualifying for the postseason.
It’s also interesting to note that 11 division winners since 2006 had a top-three record in the preseason, compared to just three division winners who had a bottom-three record in exhibition action.
That’s not to suggest that the Islanders (6-0-2 in preseason play this year) should start selling playoff tickets right now, or that Canadiens players should already begin reserving tee-off times for early April.
But it does look like we might be able to glean a bit more predictive information from NHL preseason records than you may have thought.
Preseason, I know, but it can’t be a bad thing that #Isles have allowed 10 goals in 7 games.
— Brian Compton (@BComptonNHL) September 30, 2017
Main Photo:
Embed from Getty Images
