Each off-season, the most important moves made by teams aren’t often big splash signings or trades. The moves that make the most impact are usually the ones that fly under the radar. Sam Gagner and Alexander Radulov have both been impact signings for Columbus and Montreal respectively. However, no player may be having a better season for his team than Thomas Vanek.
He was coming off a disappointing season in Minnesota where he put up only 18 goals and 41 points, both numbers which were career lows for a full season. He took a one-year flier with Detroit, and it has paid off for both parties. He is tied for the team lead with 12 goals and points with 31. These numbers are impressive, but look even better considering he has played 11 less game than Henrik Zetterberg who also has 31 points. With the Red Wings struggling for most of the season, Vanek’s biggest value to the team may come at the trade deadline. It’s safe to say that Thomas Vanek’s trade value is heating up.
How do analytics see Thomas Vanek this year?
Whether you are old school or new school, analytics can help provide a deeper look at how a player is performing. While the traditional stat line can provide a general idea of a player’s success, it doesn’t cover all factors. Thomas Vanek doesn’t have the leagues greatest numbers with a CF% of 50.3 and a FF% of 50.1 but he ranks seventh in both rankings on the Red Wings. These rankings are slightly misleading though, as Brian Lashoff and Nick Jensen both rank above him, but have significantly less games played. He also ranks second on the team in PDO at 103.3, and also has a positive SF% and xGF%, which points to his play not only benefitting himself, but his teammates as well. This is shown by his 63.41 GF% and a GF60 rating of 3.99. It is further proved by his oiSH% of 11.9, which is third highest for Detroit.
Just How High is Thomas Vanek’s Trade Value?
At seasons start, the goal for the Detroit Red Wings was the same as it has been every year since 1990; make the playoffs. However, as the season has progressed, it has started to look less and less likely. There have been sparks of hope, but they have been surrounded by a cloud of disappointment. When things started to sour, people began to look and see who might be traded if things continue to go poorly. All eyes immediately went in the direction of Thomas Vanek. Of course, he is no stranger to being traded. It happened to him twice during the 2013-2014 season. So while he is used to it, it doesn’t get any easier to have to constantly move his family.
Thomas Vanek stresses that he really likes Detroit and wants to stay but said he's getting used to moving if he's traded at the deadline. pic.twitter.com/onAbBQI5we
— Craig Custance (@CraigCustance) January 16, 2017
The only roadblock could be upper management’s inability to recognize a team that cannot compete in the playoffs, and will possibly lose Vanek to a contender for nothing in the off-season. Looking back to trades made in the past, the Eric Cole deal Detroit made with the Dallas Stars comes to mind. He had 18 goals and 33 points when the Red Wings acquired him and a third round pick for two prospects and a second round pick. Vanek is an overall better play than Cole was and is going to put up much better numbers by the deadline than Cole did. Detroit should look for no less than a second round pick and a mid-level prospect, if not more.
Who Could be Interested in Vanek?
Teams in playoff contention are always looking for more scoring, especially in today’s NHL where goal scoring is at a premium. A scoring winger who can bring a veteran presence would be at the top of any teams wishlist. A team like Montreal could be a great fit for Vanek. They are currently missing Brendan Gallagher at right wing, and Vanek played for them toward the end of the 2013-2014 season. Other fits could be San Jose, New York Rangers, or even the Winnipeg Jets who are all missing talented right-wingers and are all in position to make the playoffs. So as the deadline approaches, all eyes will be on Thomas Vanek’s trade value and whether or not Detroit will be willing to move him.
All stats accurate as of January 19th, 2017. Analytical stats courtesy of hockey-reference.com and corsica.hockey.
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