With his recently signed entry-level contract, Winnipeg Jets prospect Logan Stanley has become a hot topic of conversation. Some are optimistic that he will develop into a reliable defenseman. Others are sceptical, fearing that he’ll join the “tall and that’s all” club. The pick has been a lightning rod of criticism from the very beginning. While it’s foolish to say “all is lost” this early, it warrants a lot of scepticism. General Manager Kevin Cheveldayoff swung for the fences with this selection, and it has a good chance of being his first miss.
Revisiting the Controversial Logan Stanley Pick
Moving Up the Board
Soaring in at 6’7″, 231 lbs, the Jets selected the left-handed defenseman 18th overall in the 2016 NHL Draft. The Jets parted ways with picks 22 and 36 in a trade with the Philadelphia Flyers so they could take him at 18. Also coming the Jets way from the Flyers was pick 79.
Jets Head Scout Mark Hillier reflects:
The team in question is presumably the Detroit Red Wings with pick 20. There was much chatter that the Red Wings had interest in the young blueliner shortly after his selection.
Long-Term Development Curve
Hillier thinks the word project may be “a little too strong” to describe the selection. He made it very clear that the Jets don’t plan on using Stanley in the NHL for at least another three years:
Whether the term “project” is selling him short or not, one thing is for sure – he is slated to have a lengthy journey to the NHL.
Stanley’s development curve is being compared to that of Mark Scheifele, though this is somewhat of an apples-and-oranges analogy. While it did take Scheifele a while to realize his potential, he was always projected to be a top-six scoring forward. Stanley is still a huge unknown.
He’s tall. He doesn’t get many points. Can he be a genuine stay-at-home defenseman? Will an offensive side to his game ever emerge? He played with a top-shelf prospect in Mikhail Sergachev. How much has this contributed to what little success he’s had? It’s unclear to what he is, or what he aims to become.
Entry-Level Contract
Stanley signed his ELC with Winnipeg this past Tuesday. The contract has an annual average value of $1,137,500.
The signing has come at a strange time. It allows him to play his nine-game trial in the NHL next season, but nothing has indicated that an NHL stint that soon would be rational. He’s not producing offense, and his play in defensive zone still needs a lot of tuning. Minor League Scout Steve Kournianos noted that he is still making the same coverage mistakes he made last year. No drastic strides have been made. His learning phase is still on its long term course.
The Criticism
There were safer left-handed shooting defensemen taken after Stanley. Samuel Girard and Kale Clague specifically come to mind. Both are Canada World Junior selection camp nominees, and were taken at picks 47 and 51, respectively. Rather than banking on a player like Stanley to excel solely because of size, the Jets could have selected one of these more offensively-gifted defensemen. Both are quality puck carriers and point producers.
Big defensemen with minimal point production like Stanley don’t have a great track record of panning out. If drafting one, ending with something similar to the likes of Samuel Morin, Jamie Oleksiak, Jarred Tinordi, Keaton Ellerby, Jared Cowen, etc is likely. The idea of one of these towering prospects reaching their ceiling is exciting, but it hardly ever happens.
Once upon a time, in 1996, it did work out with Zdeno Chara. But what are the chances of lightning striking twice?
It’s perhaps more preferable taking a pick on a player with great physical attributes in the middle rounds of a draft. This is what the Jets did in 2015, selecting left winger Erik Foley at pick 78. While Foley isn’t nearly as tall as Stanley, or as undeveloped offensively, the strength he showcased at the NHL Draft Combine garnered a fair bit of interest. He finished second in bench press reps, third in consecutive pull-ups, and fourth in agility and balance. Foley is coming along nicely, with his most recent accomplishment is him being announced to Team USA’s preliminary roster for the World Junior tournament.
Boom or Bust
Stanley is very much a boom or bust pick. To a degree, this was a chance Cheveldayoff could afford taking. He got Patrik Laine second overall.
He’s just the player leading the Western Conference in scoring at 18 years old? Things might be a bit different if the Jets didn’t luck into their lottery pick. Or even if they scored third overall. Imagine Jesse Puljujarvi and Kyle Connor both generating “AHL demotion” talk and having Stanley being three to four seasons away. When would they reach their compete window? There’s a growing demand in Winnipeg to win soon. Laine has saved that.
The move isn’t entirely affordable, however. One look at the Jets blue line depth can be unsettling when thinking of where it could be in a few years, assuming Dustin Byfuglien and Toby Enstrom are either gone or ineffective. Jacob Trouba, Josh Morrissey, and Tyler Myers are the only sure-fire NHL-caliber defenders.
Selecting defenseman Luke Green at pick 79 this year potentially helps their situation. He’s a great puck handler and is very smooth in transition defense. While he isn’t a left-handed shot where the Jets are especially thin, he was an absolute steal. In fact, several scouts and pundits alike had Green ahead of Stanley in their prospect rankings. This includes Last Word on Hockey’s own Ben Kerr, who listed Green as his 37th best prospect in the 2016 NHL Draft; Stanley was ranked 46th.
The Left-Handed Defenseman Market
Thankfully, valuable and inexpensive left-handed defensemen are easily accessible. They sit in free agency and pass through waivers frequently.
Mark Barberio of the Montreal Canadiens cleared waivers this Wednesday. Barberio was an AHL All-Star and is a high-level shot suppressor in the NHL. DTM About Heart‘s even strength “WAR” (Wins Above Replacement) model had him projected as a top-30 defenseman in that category last year.
The Colorado Avalanche were able to score a solid defenseman in Patrick Wiercioch this off-season for a measly $800,000. Jakub Kindl, another plausible option, has gone through waivers multiple times over the past few years.
While Cheveldayoff and Co. have provided the Jets with duds such as Mark Stuart and Ben Chiarot, the option is at least out there to replace them. The only concern on this front is will they provide the team with better depth defensemen?
Closing Thoughts
Defensemen of Stanley’s breed don’t have a great history of panning out, but is it possible he has a legitimate chance of becoming an anomaly? Is there something the Jets scouting staff see in him, convincing them he will defy the odds? Are Jets fans willing to put enough stock in the team’s previous drafting success to trust this project?
There is way too much unknown in the present day. He is definitively nott a bust at this point, no matter how badly the odds are stacked against him. He is a player in his own right. While the general rule of thumb suggests he is not destined for stardom, Jets fans can at the very least hope for a lot to change over the next few seasons.
Remember, he didn’t draft himself 18th overall, the team did. Rather than vilifying an 18-yea- old, it’s probably best to be sceptical of the management’s decision, but to root for the kid at the same time.
Main Photo.
