Welcome to Part 2 of the 2026 SEC Win Totals. In Part 1, we looked at the favorites. Georgia and Texas are the favorites to unseat the B1G streak. In Part 2, we take a deeper dive into the “bottom half” of the SEC. The SEC has long proclaimed it’s not just about the top of the conference; it is the conference depth that is the separating factor. A 2-6 bowl record in 2025 raised some serious questions about that #ItJustMeansMore depth.
As we turn the page to 2026, let’s try to exert some positivity into the “bottom half.” Instead, we will call this group “The Underdogs.” Three of the seventeen teams on the list have a new coach. We have three more that have been in contention for a spot in the CFB Playoffs each of the last two years, and one that has a Fever, and the only solution is more cowbell. So grab your cowbell, it’s time to look at the SEC Underdogs in 2026.
2026 SEC Win Totals: The Underdogs
New Faces Expectations
The SEC raided the American Athletic Conference at the end of the 2025 season to hire most of its new coaches. History says that most (if not all) of the hires probably will not work. Jon Sumarall (Florida) is the only one on the list that made our Par1 1 SEC Win Total list. Patience is not an option in 2026. Win now is a must; patience is no longer optional.
- Auburn 6.5: Alex Golesh comes in from USF to try to un-Freeze the offense and the Tigers on The Plains. Golesh is an “offensive-guru” and has brought a contingent of Bulls with him to Auburn. Byrum Brown will be QB1, and maybe the first viable signal caller the Tigers have had in a while. He has amassed 7,690 passing yards and 2,265 rushing yards in his career. Hitting the over would be more wins than the Tigers have had in a season since 2019.
- Arkansas 4.5: Ryan Silverfield comes in from Memphis to try to resurrect the Hogs. NIL was an afterthought under Sam Pittman. He, like Mike Gundy and Brian Kelly, another casualty in the 2025 coaching carousel, was too slow to adapt to the new age of college football. We are lukewarm on the Silverfield hire. Arkansas needs a climber and someone who can zig when the rest of the conference zags. He underachieved in the American Athletic Conference despite being one of the best-resourced G6 programs.
- Kentucky 4.5: The Mark Stoops era eroded in Lexington. It got stale and moldy. Kentucky made a splash by getting one of the hottest young offensive coordinators in Will Stein. Stein has moved quickly up the coaching ranks and has ties to Texas through his time at UTSA and his work with Dan Lanning at Oregon. You could see the Stein move being the shot of adrenaline the program needs. If we see NIL alignment, Kentucky could be the surprise team of 2026. Questions at quarterback make that seem challenging in 2026. Sam Leavitt would have made this
this more of a lock.
Elite in everything. Every single day. 📈🦅 pic.twitter.com/E0eMt6c3nB
— Auburn Football (@AuburnFootball) March 16, 2026
Keep Your Eyes ON…
Who is Vegas sleeping on? Look no further than CoMo and Nash Vegas. These two programs are climbers and have been thorns in the sides of many SEC teams in 2026. The disrespect continues in 2026, with both teams combining for 6.5 wins.
- Mizzou 6.5: All Eli Drinkwitz does is win at Mizzou, or at least that’s how it seems. He started slow winning five games in year one and six in years two and three. He had double-digit wins in 2023 and 2024, and fell back slightly to eight wins in 2025. A quick note 2025, he was playing with a third-string quarterback for most of the season. Austin Simmons and Cayden Lee come in from Oxford to look to jump start the Tiger offense. If we are looking for an SEC CFB Playoff dark horse in 2026, look no further than Drink and the Tigers.
- Vanderbilt 6.5: What made Vandy so successful in the last two years, Jerry Kill or Diego Pavia? Clark Lea managed just nine wins in his first three seasons in Nashville. With Kill and Pavia, Lea won seven in 2024 and ten wins in 2025. Vanderbilt had a big flip in Jared Curtis, deciding to stay home rather than go to Athens. Will that be the secret sauce to replace Pavia, who was electric for the ‘Dores? Kill and offensive coordinator Tim Beck have been magic for Lea, but without a proven signal caller, Vandy could be headed for a slide in 2026.
Feelin’ nostalgic 🤧#MIZ pic.twitter.com/7Xt0cBtaI7
— Mizzou Football (@MizzouFootball) April 2, 2026
Hot Seat Watch
We saw the SEC replace four coaches in 2025. There are likely two names on the hot seat heading into 2026. Shane Beamer and the Gamecocks underachieved, finishing 4-8 in 2025. Beamer avoided the guillotine and has made changes to both coordinators and his staff. Mississippi State is still looking to find the magic since Mike Leach’s tragic death in 2022. With Lane gone in Oxford, Jeff Lebby has a chance to get Hail State out of the Rebels’ shadow. Another low win total in 2026 could see changes in both Columbia and Starkville.
- South Carolina 6.5: How do you only win four games with LaNorris Sellers? Gamecocks fans will be quick to blame former offensive coordinator Mike Shula for lacking how to use the dynamic signal caller. Kendall Briles comes over from TCU to try to help bring life to Sellers and the Gamecocks. Briles comes from the Veer-and-Shoot and Air Raid tree. That should open up Nick Harbor for some deep shots. Expectations are low on Beamer on the Gamecocks; that is usually when Shane is at his best.
- Mississippi State 4.5: Zack Arnett was not the answer to replace Leach. Arnett lasted one year before being fired and replaced by Lebby. While head coaching may not have been his calling card, having standout defenses is definitely something that Arnett is known for. Lebby’s offenses have improved in both years of his time in StarkVegas. Defensive failures too often did in those teams. Lebby hopes Arnett can bring back a stronger defense so the Cowbells can ring again in 2026.
Main Photo: Denny Medley-Imagn Images
