While we may just now be preparing for the quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff, the non-playoff bowl season is starting to near an end. However, there are still a few of those games left. And there are certainly some people who aren’t interested. But for fans of the participating teams, and for fans of the sport in general, there’s still plenty of interest. One of those remaining bowl games is the 2026 Liberty Bowl in Memphis, Tennessee. And needless to say, it’s an interesting matchup for a variety of reasons.
With Cincinnati taking on Navy, let’s break down why this matchup is so interesting, and who appears to have the edge, at least on paper.
2026 Liberty Bowl: Cincinnati vs Navy
A Matchup of Similar Offenses
One of the most telling details about this matchup is the two offenses. In terms of nationally, Cincinnati comes into this one at 27th in the country in total offense. Navy comes in at 28th. More impressive is the fact that they’re both averaging 421 yards per game. Furthermore, the scoring numbers are almost identical, as well. The Bearcats put up 32 points per contest. Navy averages 31.
Where things split is how they get that yardage. The Midshipmen come into the Liberty Bowl leading the nation in rushing offense, at 289 yards per game. But as you might can tell, that means their passing attack is almost nonexistent. In fact, they find themselves in the bottom five nationally in passing yards.
For Cincinnati, it’s a more balanced look. The Bearcats average 242 yards through the air, while still putting up 179 yards per game on the ground. A big part of the Cincinnati success is the improvement of quarterback Brendan Sorsby. The veteran is having the best season of his career, as he’s thrown for 2,800 yards. On top of that, he’s put up 27 touchdowns, with only five interceptions. On the ground, he’s also averaging nearly six yards per carry, as he’s run for 580 yards and nine touchdowns, as well.
In this year’s Liberty Bowl, one of the biggest questions is which offensive approach has more success. Can the balanced Bearcat offense continue its efficient year, this time against the Navy defense? And can the one-dimensional Midshipmen rushing attack have success against a struggling Cincinnati defense?
Which Defense Steps Up?
On the defensive side, things aren’t quite as successful. Both teams come into this matchup in the bottom half of the country in terms of defense. That being said, Navy has had a bit more success on the defensive side of things, at least when it comes to yards. But some of that may be due to the style of play. With them running the ball as well as they do, the game is oftentimes shortened because the clock isn’t stopping as often.
As for the important side of things, giving up points, the two teams are once again almost identical. The Bearcats are giving up 25 points per game. The Midshipmen? 26 points per contest.
For Cincinnati, the key is obviously going to be to stop the option attack they’re going to see. You almost have to accept that you’re going to give up some rushing yards. The question is whether they can keep Navy quarterback Blake Horvath from completing his passes. That is, the few that he attempts.
For the Midshipmen, they have to get Sorsby off balance. He has shown the ability to beat you through the air if he has time to set and throw. However, if they can get some pressure and force him to make throws under duress, there’s a chance they can have enough success to pull out a win.
2026 Liberty Bowl Predictions
This is simply a game between two comparable teams. Numbers-wise, at least. The way they get there may be different, but they end up similar either way. The other side of things is the trajectory the two programs have been on late in the season. For Cincinnati, they come into this one having lost their last four. They haven’t won a game since October 25. That’s more than two full months. On the other sideline, Navy comes in as winners of their last three. This momentum they’re playing with could help them out in terms of being ready for this one.
Another aspect to keep in mind is the time between games. The Bearcats haven’t played since November 29. Because the annual Army-Navy game is played after conference championship weekend, the Midshipmen last played on December 13. That leads to the question: does the long layoff help Cincinnati attempt to get things turned around, or do they come out looking rusty?
In the end, take Navy to sneak away with a close win. Their success on the ground continues, and they manage to keep the ball out of the Bearcats offense’s hands. Because of the shortened game, it stays tight all the way through. However, a late score by the Midshipmen get them over the edge.
Navy 24, Cincinnati 20
How to Watch Navy vs Cincinnati
Date: Friday, January 2; 4:30 ET
Location: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium; Memphis, TN
TV: ESPN
