Rivalry Weekend: Washington vs. Oregon

The Oregon Ducks are one win away from potentially locking in a home College Football Playoff game. With it, the Ducks have an outside shot of reaching the Big Ten title game depending on other game results in the league this weekend. But Husky Stadium stands in the way. Washington is averaging 484 yards of offense and 40.5 points per game on Montlake this season. That’s including the 24-6 loss to Ohio State. Ryan Walters’ defense has not given up more than 25 points in a single game, and it will be the third top-20 defense the Ducks have faced on the season. The other two (Iowa and Indiana) caused Oregon the biggest problems it’s faced thus far.

In its last two games, Washington has scored touchdowns on 12 of its 23 total possessions. The Huskies have gained over 60% of their available yards in those two games against Purdue and UCLA. Jedd Fisch’s offense has been consistent in moving the football against lesser-quality defenses. In other words, it’s doing what it should do. But in games against top run defenses, the Huskies’ overall drive efficiency drops significantly. Ohio State’s second-ranked run defense held Washington to just 46% of its available yards. Michigan and Wisconsin’s run defenses both rank inside the top 16 nationally, and in those games, the Huskies gained 38% and 33% of their possible yards, respectively.

Oregon will be the fourth Big Ten defense Washington has faced that ranks in the top 16 nationally against the run. The Ducks allow 103 total rushing yards per contest, good for 15th nationally. On top of that, the Ducks have allowed only 30.9% of opponents’ available yards on the year. In games against this caliber of run defense, the Huskies have struggled to set protections and establish the run. Washington allowed nine tackles for loss in each of their games against Wisconsin and Ohio State. Michigan recorded seven in its win over the Huskies this year. In those same three games, Washington gave up 12 sacks. Six of those were in the Ohio State game alone.

On Monday, Fisch noted that right tackle Drew Azzopardi is trending in a positive direction. He is optimistic that Azzopardi will enter the game in some capacity, but there was no clear indication as to whether or not he’ll start. Landen Hatchett’s right hand (snapping hand) will remain in a ball cast against Oregon. He’ll be available to play guard if needed, but will be unable to snap the ball. That means that Zach Henning will earn his third-straight start this weekend. The offensive line group that played against Purdue and UCLA has yet to be credited with a sack allowed and has given up just two total pressures. However, the Oregon defense will look much different than the Huskies’ previous two opponents.

“Their defense is a year older,” Fisch said this week. “It’s the same EDGE rushers that they had a year ago.” Matayo Uiagalalei and Teitum Tuioti accounted for 3.5 of Oregon’s 16 tackles for loss and 3.5 of the Ducks’ 10 sacks in the game against Washington a year ago. This season, those two lead the team with 20 combined tackles for loss and 10.5 sacks. The duo has been extremely productive this year and will test the shuffled Husky offensive line on Saturday.

In the secondary, Oregon is a notch better than it was a year ago. The Ducks’ passing defense ranks 3rd nationally, allowing 145 passing yards per contest. Oregon’s secondary has allowed just 19 pass plays of 20-plus yards this year (4th nationally), and ranks 8th in success rate against the pass (35.8%).

Fisch added, “Their safety that they got from Purdue that played for Coach Walters, I think, is outstanding.” Dillon Thieneman led the Boilermakers in back-to-back seasons with 100-plus tackles. Now at Oregon, Thieneman is the top-rated defensive player (87.6) and coverage defender (89.8) on the roster, according to Pro Football Focus. The Ducks are not a group that teams have had success throwing against. Even in its lone loss to Indiana, the Hoosiers had their lowest passing output of conference play this season. Indiana threw for 215 yards with an average of 6.9 yards per attempt.

Jonah Coleman and Denzel Boston are expected to see a “substantial” increase in snaps compared to their participation last week at UCLA. What that means, however, is unclear. Even Fisch does not know what that will mean in terms of snap count, based on his comments on Monday. It’s likely going to be decided on the day of the game how much both players see the field.

The good news for the Husky passing game is that Raiden Vines-Bright has been cleared to play. He has been practicing this week, according to offensive coordinator Jimmie Dougherty, and reloads key depth to the downfield threat of the offense. But in his absence, Omari Evans and Audric Harris have elevated their games. Evans’ increased role has earned him seven catches for 87 yards in the last two games. Harris’ numbers include 89 receiving yards and a touchdown in that stretch. That’s in addition to Dezmen Roebuck, who has four touchdown receptions in the last four games. In that stretch, Roebuck has pulled down 19 catches for 169 yards. He’s become the team’s second-leading receiver by a wide margin.

Just as the Washington offense has struggled in drive efficiency against top-rated defenses, Oregon has shown deficiencies against its top opponents. Indiana’s defense ranks fourth nationally, and Iowa’s eighth. Indiana’s defense took away Oregon’s run game, forcing it into one dimension. Oregon averaged 2.7 yards per carry in that game on 30 attempts. The Ducks have a top 10 rushing offense nationally. Indiana’s front seven took that away and forced Dante Moore to make throws. The Hoosiers maintained an early lead, forcing the Duck offense to throw late. Indiana took advantage with two late-game interceptions to help seal the win.

Iowa’s defense was not as successful at stopping the run, but the game was played in a freezing rainstorm. Oregon rushed for 7.3 yards per carry on 36 attempts. Neither side could move the ball, but Iowa controlled the clock. The Hawkeyes had three possessions that lasted more than six minutes, and two of them were touchdown drives. Iowa held a 6-minute time-of-possession advantage against the Ducks. Keeping that offense off the field was a significant reason Oregon only escaped with a last-second, two-point win.

Saturday, Washington will need to execute a similar game plan to slow the Ducks. The Huskies rank 18th in the nation in run defense, allowing just over 100 rushing yards per game. They’ve given up more than 150 rushing yards in only two games this year (Michigan and Wisconsin). And teams average 30 attempts per game against Ryan Walters’ defense.

But Washington has been less controlling when it comes to time of possession. It had the TOP advantage in the wins over Purdue and UCLA. But prior to those two games, it had lost the TOP battle for four straight games. The Huskies have had just five six-plus-minute drives in eight conference games thus far. Fisch’s offense is explosive, having had six sub-three-minute scoring drives in the last two games alone. Quick scoring drives are not a problem if they end in points. But short drives that don’t result in points will cause a significant problem on Saturday. Eight of Washington’s 12 drives against Wisconsin were sub-three minutes and didn’t end with points. That game was a prime example of what can happen when short, unsuccessful drives compound.

But on Rivalry Weekend, all bets are off. The game isn’t played on paper. The two offenses that step onto the field on Saturday each have the potential to put up points quickly. Oregon will know if it has a shot at reaching the Big Ten Championship by the time this game kicks off at 12:30pm. With a Michigan win over Ohio State, the Ducks clinch a spot in the title game with a win at Washington.

“Beating Oregon does a lot for me,” Fisch said on Monday of this week. “Knocking them out is just another part of it.” The Huskies see a ten-win season on the horizon, and they stand in the way of Oregon’s goals. Said Fisch, “It is going to be an all-day sucker on Saturday.”