Coming down the final week of the regular season, four teams remain mathematically alive to play for the Big 12 title. In reality, a rematch between BYU and Texas Tech is this overwhelmingly likely outcome. But there are 12 other teams in this conference. In a normally mixed bag conference, there were teams that clearly exceeded expectations. At the same time, others could not clear even a low bar. So, in the final Big 12 power rankings of the season, Last Word will examine which teams need to view 2025 as a success or failure.
Final Big 12 Power Rankings: Was This Season Successful?
16. Oklahoma State (Last Week 16)
Last Word has been on Oklahoma State trying to get that first Big 12 win. We were feeling pretty good about them getting it against UCF. Instead, it will be at least 734 days between Big 12 wins (if they can get it against Iowa State Saturday). But other than that, they lost to Tulsa this year for the first time in over 70 years, fired their most successful coach of all time, and started a tarps-off Petty Pablo-esque rallying cry that has swept college football stadiums around the country.
Success Or Failure: Historic Failure
15. Colorado (Last Week 15)
On September 23, 2023, Deion Sanders’ Colorado team went to Oregon and promptly got trucked by Dan Lanning’s squad. In his post-game press conference, Sanders had a warning to college football. After winning nine games last season, Colorado will have to get a road victory over Kansas State to close out 2025 with the same 4-8 mark Colorado posted in 2023. Reasonable expectations with the loss of multiple NFL draft picks and the 2024 Heisman trophy winner in Travis Hunter were that this team was going to take a step back. But to have a -139-point differential in Big 12 play (second worst to Oklahoma State’s -170) is a further drop back many would have expected.
Success Or Failure: Failure
14. UCF (Last Week 14)
Scott Frost’s second stint as the head Knight started with very low expectations. More than half of this roster was turned over. They have had a revolving door at quarterback for much of the season. UCF has also had to face four of the top seven teams in the conference, with BYU on deck to close out the season. And yet, this team has found itself in just about every game and is on the brink of bowl season. Will they get their sixth win against the Cougars? Whether they do or don’t, it has been a good first year for UCF.
Success Or Failure: Success
13. West Virginia (Last Week 13)
Rich Rodriguez’s team was on a bye week last week. Beating an eight/nine-win Pitt team should be considered a success alone. But West Virginia struggled mightily for a while after that win. Down the stretch, they appear to have found a quarterback answer in Scotty Fox Jr. But it hasn’t translated into a ton of wins yet. Closing the season against Texas Tech likely means this team is going to finish with a 4-8 record. Without having many high points, luckily, this program can hang its hat on the Backyard Brawl victory as a building block.
Success or Failure: Minimal Success
12. Baylor (Last Week 11)
While Baylor finds itself near the bottom of the final Big 12 power rankings, it will not be the last game coached by head coach Dave Aranda. But after getting smacked around by Arizona, the Bears need to win their last home game against a good Houston team to go bowling. Even with an upset victory, Aranda’s five non-Big 12 title seasons would bring his record to 24-34. This is a team that came into the season with dark horse Big 12 championship consideration, given how well they closed 2024. Instead, Baylor has fielded one of the worst defenses in the conference. While quarterback Sawyer Robertson has still had a productive season, the offense could not make up for the glaring defense weaknesses.
Success or Failure: Failure
11. Kansas (Last Week 9)
Similar to Baylor, Kansas closed 2024 on a hot streak, playing the role of chaos agent. 2025 opened with the sixth season of quarterback Jalon Daniels as the starter. The expectations for most were for this team to be a six/seven-win caliber team. However, Lance Leipold’s squad sits at five wins with Utah coming to Lawrence to close the season. Barring the biggest upset of the Big 12 season, Kansas’ best win will be against Fresno State (likely to finish 8-4). In their five Big 12 losses, they have lost those games by a combined score of 183-102. It speaks to the level of elevation Lance Leipold has done to this program because Jayhawks fans could not even fathom five wins in a season before his arrival.
Success or Failure: Minor, minor failure
10. Iowa State (Last Week 12)
Let us be so bold as to assume Iowa State beats Oklahoma State. The Cyclones would finish 8-4. It would be the third time in Matt Campbell’s 10 seasons that Iowa State finishes with eight regular-season wins. Prior to Campbell’s arrival, that had only happened five times in 118 seasons of Cyclone football. They also knocked off Iowa, giving the ‘Clones their first winning streak over the Hawkeyes since 2011-12. Outside of the Colorado loss, dropping three games to teams currently in front of them in the standings just confirms this team hit its ceiling for the season.
Success or Failure: Success
9. TCU (Last Week 10)
How differently would everyone evaluate Sonny Dykes if he had simply gone 11-2 with the same Big 12 title game loss and missed the four-team playoff? It hasn’t been pretty most of the time this season. But a win over Cincinnati would make it back-to-back 8-4 regular season campaigns in Fort Worth. The last time TCU had two consecutive seasons with at least eight wins was 2014-15. But the reality is that Dykes did achieve that magical playoff run. If this team looked more competitive in the losses, maybe it would feel different how this season has played out.
Success or Failure: *shrugs* Success?
8. Houston (Last Week 7)
Willie Fritz’s squad let one get away last week against TCU. But regardless of the result against Baylor on Saturday, Houston must feel good about the direction of this program. It had been a rough start to Houston’s Big 12 membership. But Fritz has done a great job quickly transforming this program into even more than just a competent team. Now, the Coogs (specifically their athletic director) have two things to worry about. Will one of the numerous P4 openings come calling? How much success will it take for fans to show up for this game?
Success or Failure: Overwhelming success
7. Kansas State (Last Week 8)
The final Big 12 power rankings have the Wildcats slotted at a spot they didn’t foresee for this season. This will be the first time in a non-Covid shortened season that Chris Klieman’s team will win fewer than seven regular-season games. There is reason to worry about the long-term health of this program. It has looked out-classed in talent in ways that normally a Wildcat program could make up for in coaching. Losses to Baylor and Army, spiritual losses to Oklahoma State and North Dakota, and getting severely overmatched by Texas Tech are mounting evidence that this program needs to do plenty of reevaluation. Look how quickly things spiraled out of control in Stillwater.
Success or Failure: Failure
6. Cincinnati (Last Week 6)
Two weeks ago, the verdict on this season was a slam dunk. While they had suffered a significant defeat at the hands of Utah, the Bearcats were still a top-25-ranked team. Scott Saterfield’s team was coming off its second bye week. They had consecutive home games against the upper crust of the Big 12 with full control of their destiny to play for a Big 12 title. Instead, they have now lost three straight games while also playing some of their sloppiest football of the season. A win to close out the season would do a lot to maintain a good flavor in the mouths of Cincinnati fans. However, while a 7-5 mark would serve as a two-game improvement, it would also mean they finished the season 0-4 heading into bowl season.
Success or Failure: Success with a bitter aftertaste.
5. Arizona (Last Week 5)
Last Word pointed this out last week, but it is worth repeating. These Wildcats are two or three plays away from being 10-1 instead of their current mark of 8-3. However, that will not be any damper on this season. Arizona has already greatly exceeded its win total coming into 2025. Even setting aside the result for the Territorial Cup on Black Friday, Bret Brennan has done a great job with this program in his second season. Only two teams have scored more points in Big 12 play than Arizona. A win Friday night would likely mean finishing the regular season in the top 25.
Success Or Failure: Resounding Success
4. Arizona State (Last Week 4)
Kenny Dillingham has dealt with significant injuries to his best players all season. He is currently dealing with noise surrounding his name at other jobs, and quarterback Sam Leavitt is possibly transferring. They lost an early-season non-conference game to a Mississippi State team still needing an Egg Bowl win to go bowling. And yet, they are still mathematically alive for a chance to defend their Big 12 title. The Sun Devils have the best win in the Big 12 with a home upset over Texas Tech. They keep winning with a backup quarterback down the stretch. It’s abundantly clear Dillingham has successfully activated The Valley.
Success or Failure: Coaching Masterclass Success
3. Utah (Last Week 3)
Most teams cannot survive a game in which they surrender a program record number of yards rushing to their opponent. However, most teams aren’t built like a Kyle Whittingham team. The game against Kansas State will likely serve as a wake-up call for the Utes team to not overlook Kansas. A likely 10-win regular season will be the sixth team in Whittingham’s 21 seasons as the head coach. But two quarters of the season will haunt this team. Going into the fourth quarter against both Texas Tech and BYU, Utah was trailing by a combined 10 points. It was the two games this team couldn’t afford to lose if they wanted to play for a conference title and playoff appearance.
Success or Failure: Success, but will long wonder what could have been
2. BYU (Last Week 2)
There isn’t a more Rodney Dangerfield program in college football than the one Kalani Sitake is running. With their win over Cincinnati, the Cougars have now won at least 10 regular-season games in the last two seasons. In 2025, their only loss is to a team that appears to have a little of destiny on their side. Freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier has developed into the leader of this offense. They are now just one home win against UCF away from playing for the Big 12 championship game.
Success or Failure: Success sweeter than a Cougar Tail
1. Texas Tech (Last Week 1)
Joey McGuire’s team finds itself in familiar territory in the final Big 12 power rankings. However, anyone wants to slice it, this Red Raider team has been the most dominant force in the conference all season. They boast two of the nation’s best defensive players, leading one of the best defenses in college football. The smallest margin of victory of their 11 wins was 22 points. The stated goal by the staff, boosters, and athletic director from the preseason was a Big 12 championship. As a 24.5-point favorite against West Virginia, they still need to finish the job. Assuming the Red Raiders don’t suffer what would be the biggest upset of the college football season, the appearance in the title game likely locks them into the playoff even if they stumble.
Success or Failure: Historical Success
Main Image: Michael C. Johnson-Imagn Images
