When you aren’t going to be playing in a conference championship game, every week matters in a different way. When you lose your first two games of the season, the pressure to win out in order to be in the college football playoffs is far bigger. Such is the fate of Notre Dame as the Fighting Irish prepare to host North Carolina State on Saturday.
How We Got Here
The Irish are 3-2 on the season and seem to have found their offensive footing that had been missing in the first two games. NC State is 4-2 overall and 1-2 in the ACC in a season that has been up and down, as most have been under head coach Dave Doeren.
The Wolfpack’s wins have come over East Carolina, a good Virginia team, a tough-to-read Wake Forest squad, and Campbell. But NC State has lost unexpectedly to Duke and Virginia Tech. The offense has been erratic all season long.
That gets to the heart of the Notre Dame defense. After losing to Miami and Texas A&M to start the season, the Irish defense has played much better in the last few games. In the last game, against Boise State, the defense was needed to pick up the slack when the offense was sloppy and sluggish.
The Match-Up
NC State brings in quarterback CJ Bailey, who flashes mobility and a skill set outside the pocket. Bailey is connecting on 75% of his throws and has Daylan “Hollywood” Smothers, the versatile running back who is very effective as a receiver out of the backfield. Smothers is averaging about seven yards per run and six yards per reception. His seven yards shy of 700 rushing yards on the season and has five touchdowns on the ground.
But while Notre Dame has not been good at tackles for loss, the NC State offense can be as erratic as it can be good. Bailey has proven he can be both in the same game. He was 29 of 39 against Duke for 364 yards and two touchdown throws. But he also had three interceptions in the loss.
The Notre Dame offense has awakened in the last three weeks. Running back Jeremiyah Love has been getting utilized the way most thought he would be from the outset of the season. The offense has been cranking up 560 rushing yards over the last three games, and close to 1,500 total yards in those wins. Love is still the highlight player among the running backs. But Adarian Price is also carrying more of the workload now than he was in the early two losses. Each one of them has totaled five running touchdowns over the last three wins.
QB Play for Notre Dame
The Notre Dame offense is asking for efficiency, not explosiveness, out of quarterback CJ Carr. He is only averaging 25 throws per game in five games this season. But he is hitting at a 67% completion rate with 11 touchdowns and only two interceptions. The thing to be mindful of is that he is averaging just over 10 yards per completion, and NC State is giving up just over five yards per snap (84th in the country). So Carr does not have to have the explosive plays to win this game. The short to intermediate underneath has been there for him, and that does not figure to change against this specific North Carolina State defense.
The playoff hopes for the Irish are not going to be helped by their schedule. The highest-ranked opponents are behind them, and they were both losses. It is conceivable, if not likely, that the only ranked team still ahead for Notre Dame could be USC. And that would require the Trojans to beat Michigan in Los Angeles this weekend. USC is currently outside of the top 25, and Notre Dame plays the Trojans next week. But with a schedule ahead that includes Boston College, Pitt, and Stanford, there is not a lot of help for the strength of schedule. Style points are going to start to become a necessity for Notre Dame starting this weekend against NC State.
Main Image: Michael Caterina-Imagn Images
