Washington will suit up in its blackout uniforms for a Friday night homecoming matchup against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. Greg Schiano’s program will enter Husky Stadium off a bye week. And it’s the third-straight opponent to face Washington coming off a bye. Ohio State and Maryland each had off weeks prior to taking the field against the Huskies. This one will feature two of college football’s most sustainable offenses, both with success rates that rank inside the top 17 nationally.
Friday Night Lights – Washington Rutgers
Fast Start Scarlet Knights
“The quarterback knows exactly where to go with the ball,” Washington defensive coordinator Ryan Walters said this week. “They operate at a high level. They’re very efficient in what they do.” Athan Kaliakmanis is a second-year starting quarterback for Rutgers, but he’s in his fourth year of offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca’s system, having played for Ciarrocca at Minnesota. Kaliakmanis is responsible for 81 first downs this year, whether it be through the air or on the ground. That leads the Big Ten and is tied for fifth-most in the country.
Kaliakmanis has been particularly efficient in early game situations. Against Iowa, he began the game 12 of 14 passing in the first quarter, leading his offense to 14 points. The next week against Minnesota, Kaliakmanis started nine of nine into the early part of the second quarter.
With Kaliakmanis under center, Rutgers has scored 123 first-half points this season. It’s averaging 24.5 points going into halftime in its first five games. This is an offense that has been getting off to fast starts in its games. It scored 14 first-quarter points against Iowa’s defense in week four and put 21 points on Minnesota in the first half two weeks ago. Those are each top-20 defenses nationally, and Rutgers’ offense tallied 400 and 387 yards of offense in each game, respectively. The Scarlet Knight offense ranks sixth nationally in available yards percentage (67%). They’ve put together eight scoring drives in two Big Ten games this season. Every scoring drive in those two games spanned at least 62 yards. Four of them went for 75 yards.
Familiar Receiver Threats
The Rutgers offense distributes the football evenly between its top three wide receivers. Ian Strong and KJ Duff have 29 and 30 receptions, respectively. And they’ve helped build an elevated downfield passing game for Rutgers this season. Strong and Duff each have 21 receptions for 10-plus yards this season, which is tied for second-most in the Big Ten. Kaliakmanis trusts his tall receivers to win 50/50 ball matchups as well. At 6’-3”, Strong has pulled down 11 contested catches on 14 contested catch opportunities. The 6’-6” Duff has eight contested grabs on 15 opportunities.
In the slot, North Texas transfer DT Sheffield has been a valuable addition to the Scarlet Knight offense. Sheffield has track speed, and the offense uses it to their advantage. He leads the team in receiving yards on passes of more than 20 air yards with 174.
“They’ve got a really good receiving corps, they’re throwing the ball very well this year,” Jedd Fisch said on Monday. “You can see that they’re focusing in on really being able to work it to their receivers and give them those jump balls, finding one-on-one matchups.” And those one-on-one matchups are going to be crucial on Friday night. The status of Tacario Davis remains in question for the fourth-straight game. The Washington cornerback left the UC Davis game with what we now know is a rib injury, and he has not returned to game action since. A healthy pair of 6’-4” cornerbacks would benefit the Huskies against the length of Rutgers receivers.
Bryant’s Bounce Back
But Walters had praise for Leroy Bryant after the Maryland game, who bounced back with a solid performance at nickel on the road with 45 snaps. “I thought he played well, man. He made a huge play when we were in cover three, and they ran a wheel route from the number one receiver. And that’s hard to see when you’re the curl-flat dropper… For him to peek out there and play the technique the right way… was a huge play in that game.” Bryant allowed just three catches in coverage on six targets for 16 receiving yards. Bryant had allowed 15 catches on 18 targets in the prior two weeks against Ohio State and Washington State for 178 yards and two touchdowns.
RPO & Power Success
Rutgers runs a lot of its offense out of the RPO. As such it will be important for the Husky defense to set a disciplined edge and not overanticipate when in coverage. Running back Antwan Raymond runs with a similar style to Jonah Coleman, and the two have nearly identical numbers on the year. Raymond has 471 yards on 87 carries with nine scores. Compared to Coleman’s 474 yards on 82 carries with 10 scores. “Their running backs run hard,” Walters said this week. “And the amount of YAC yards they get is incredible.” Raymond is averaging 4.3 yards after contact per carry. For comparison, Coleman is averaging 3.9 yards after contact per carry.
Kaliakmanis also presents a threat on the ground. He’s scrambled 15 times this season – tied for sixth most in the conference – for 67 undesigned run yards. That’s an average of almost 4.5 yards per scramble. The Rutgers offensive line returned all five of its starters from 2024 into this season. The continuity up front has been a big reason for their offensive success early in the year. “They communicate well and ID the fronts, and who the mike is in protection, seamlessly,” Walters said. “So that’s why they’re playing as well as they are on offense.” Power success is measured as an offense’s ability to run on short yardage situations (less than two yards) on third down and near the goal line. Rutgers has a power success rate of 82%. It’s a powerful front, and the Husky defensive line will be tested with its physicality.
“We gotta put a four-quarter performance together and play our best football to date if we want to take care of business at home,” Walters added. “We gotta do a great job of being gap-sound and being physical up front, and we gotta wrap them up.”
Washington’s Advantage
But on the other side of the ball, there’s more of a discrepancy. Washington’s offense ranks just ahead of the Scarlet Knights in available yards percentage at fifth nationally (67.1%). On Friday night, the Huskies will have an opportunity to showcase their offense for a full 60 minutes.
Washington’s last two games have been against two of the best defenses in the conference. Ohio State has allowed just five points per game in five games this year. The Buckeyes’ success rate ranks 18th defensively, allowing just 35.1%. Maryland ranks 11th nationally in defensive success rate allowed at just 33.2%. Rutgers, however, ranks 127th in defensive success rate nationally, allowing successful plays on 46.2% of its defensive snaps.
Rutgers is not particularly good in early down defense. Against Iowa, Rutgers allowed an average of 6.2 yards gained on first down. At Minnesota, Rutgers gave up 8.2 yards per first down play. In the fourth quarter against Maryland, Washington averaged 8.9 yards gained per first-down play when its offense was in rhythm. A defense that allows this kind of early-down success will help the Huskies establish early rhythm and potentially outpace the Scarlet Knights’ offensive efficiency.
Prediction
Washington – 38
Rutgers – 27
Main Image: Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images
