It’s hard to believe, but the 2025 college football season is upon us. For Mark Stoops and the Kentucky Wildcats, it’s a chance to put last year’s 4-8 debacle in the rear-view mirror. They’ve brought in 50 new players for 2025 in hopes of reversing fortunes. If the Wildcats want to get back to a bowl game, they’ll certainly have to earn it. ESPN ranks UK’s schedule as one of the toughest in the country. Even their first game, which, as usual, is against a MAC school, won’t be easy. The reason, their first opponent, Toledo, is picked to win the league. In addition, some even have the Rockets as a possible College Football Playoff contender. Can the Cats get a win in their opener? Let’s look at both teams and give you a score prediction and show why Kentucky is on upset alert versus Toledo.
Cats Need A Fast Start
New Man Under Center
Kentucky again starts the season with a transfer at quarterback. The well-traveled Zack Calzada takes over after beating out Cutter Boley for the job. Kentucky is Calzada’s third SEC stop and fourth overall in his career. He started at Texas A&M, transferred to Auburn, and then ended up at Incarnate Word. Going back to 2021, he threw for nearly 2,200 yards and 17 touchdowns for the Aggies. His best win came when he led A&M to a 41-38 upset win over top-ranked Alabama.
During his first season, Calzada threw for 2,353 yards and 18 touchdowns. In addition, he added five more scores on the ground. The 2024 season was a huge one for Calzada. Named Southland Conference Player Of The Year, he threw for 3,751 yards, 35 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. His yards and touchdowns ranked fifth and second, respectively, in FCS. The Big Blue Nation hopes for similar numbers this year.
Plenty Of New Faces
As we mentioned earlier, the Cats have 50 new faces on the squad. In fact, their top two running backs came through the portal. Seth McGowan ran for 823 yards and had six total touchdowns for New Mexico State. Dante Dowdell comes to Kentucky from Nebraska. A season ago, he rushed for 614 yards while his 12 touchdowns ranked fifth in the Big Ten.
Ja’Mori Maclin is the top returning receiver, while transfers Kendrick Law, Troy Stellato, and the returning Hardley Gilmore will all be key receivers. A fun stat for you, the Cats listed nine receivers and five tight ends on their week one depth chart.
The Cats hit the portal hard to upgrade the offensive line, which has not been good the last couple of years. On the other side of the ball, a revamped defensive front is led by David Gusta.
Let’s talk about why Kentucky is on upset alert versus Toledo as we break down the Rockets.
A Familiar Face
Jason Candle begins his 11th season as head coach of the Rockets. During his tenure, he’s gone 73-40 and led the team to eight bowls. A season ago, Toledo finished 8-5 overall and 4-4 in the MAC. They wrapped up the year with a 48-46 six-overtime win over Pittsburgh in the Game Above Sports Bowl.
Tucker Gleason is the man under center for Toledo. Last year he completed nearly 61 percent of his passes for 2,808 yards with 24 touchdowns. In addition, he ran for 364 yards and seven more scores.
The Rockets’ starting running back is a name very familiar to the Big Blue Nation. Chip Trayanum came to Kentucky from Ohio State before the 2024 year with high expectations. However, it never came to fruition as he was injured most of the year and played in only three games. Trayanum finished with 101 yards and then transferred to Toledo. He’s expected to be the next in a strong line of running backs.
When Gleason throws the ball, his favorite target is Junior Vandeross III. The first team All-MAC receiver hauled in 85 passes for 957 yards and five touchdowns. In addition, they brought in Trayvon Rudolph from Northern Illinois.
Now that we’ve looked at both teams, let’s give you some history as we talk about Kentucky being on upset alert versus Toledo.
Series History
Saturday marks the second time the Wildcats and Rockets have met on the gridiron. The first meeting came in 2019. In that contest UK broke open a 14-14 tie at the half behind a strong game from Terry Wilson as the Cats won by 14.
All-time Stoops is 11-0 against MAC teams and has won 15 straight against Group of Five squads. On the other side of the ball, Toledo went 2-0 against Power Four teams last year. Not only did they beat Pittsburgh, but they blew out Mississippi State in Starkville 41-17.
We’ve given you all the numbers, now it’s prediction time as Kentucky is on upset alert versus Toledo.
Who Wins On Saturday?
The mood describing the BBN is “MEH” at best. There’s some cautious optimism; however, most Cat fans aren’t expecting much. That’s why this game is so important. UK opened as a 12.5-point favorite. However, as of this writing, it’s down to 7.5. Lose this one, and whatever hope there was for the season is gone. Win and build on the momentum for next week’s game versus Ole Miss.
Look for a game that goes down to the wire. In the end, Stoops keeps his streak intact and the Cats start 1-0.
Kentucky 28-24
Thanks for checking out Kentucky on upset alert versus Toledo here at Last Word On College Football. We’ll be back after the game with a wrap-up.
Main Image: Sam Upshaw Jr./Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
