The 2024 season resumes this week for the Red Raiders who took the bye week to get healthy at the mid-way point of the season. Outside of players already lost for the entirety of the regular season, Texas Tech only had three players listed on their injury report this week, with two of them questionable. With this team about as healthy as humanly possible, they have an opportunity to keep momentum rolling against Baylor. Which area of the game will be the most critical to secure a Texas Tech week eight victory and a sixth win on the season?
Texas Tech And Baylor Connections
This game does not lack close connections between the coaches and the players. On top of being an in-state rivalry, Texas Tech coach Joey McGuire came to Lubbock after starting his college career at Baylor. He spent several years as an assistant coach under Dave Aranda. In total, 12 coaches on the Texas Tech staff are either Baylor graduates or worked with the Bears. Aranda himself also got his coaching career started as a graduate assistant for the Red Raiders.
The Bears made a change to their starting quarterback weeks ago to Sawyer Robertson. He has been a breath of fresh air for the Bears offense and this game will serve as a homecoming for him as he is a Lubbock native who played at Coronado High School. But if the Red Raider faithful want it to be a happy homecoming for all of the alumni, they have to let Baylor know what time it is.
It’s Still Tahj Time
Texas Tech comes into this game with the Big 12’s most prolific scoring offense. The Red Raiders are averaging 39.3 points a contest while registering 460.5 yards of total offense per game. Quarterback Behren Morton has been accurate and protected the football with a 7/1 touchdown-to-interceptions ratio. Transfer wide receiver Josh Kelly has led the way as the wideout has been averaging 11.7 per reception. But the offense only goes when running back Tahj Brooks is going. Brooks is currently third nationally in rushing yards per game, averaging 135.6 in five games.
This matchup appears tailor-made for Brooks to have a big day. Baylor ranks 88th nationally in rush defense. The Bears are allowing an average of 161.5 yards per game on the ground. This season, the most rushing attempts Brooks has had in a single game was 32 carries for 172 yards in a win over Cincinnati. Expect Brooks to put up similar numbers in this Texas Tech week eight showdown.
Force Baylor To Throw The Ball
While getting Brooks going is always going to be an important factor for the Red Raiders, the offense really needs the defense to take the next step. The last time we saw that unit was in their best effort of the season as the kept a potent Arizona offense in check all night. Defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter has seen his young unit come a long way since the start of the season. If they want to shed any negative perceptions about the defense, this week serves as the statement opportunity they have been waiting for.
When Baylor has been at its most competitive this year, they have used the running game to set up the passing attack. Having Robertson take over at quarterback has also inspired some confidence in the Bears. The junior has thrown for nine touchdowns and run for three. Robertson has averaged 244.5 yards passing since taking over as the starter.
But his completion percentage has been hovering around just 53.5% in the last three weeks since Big 12 play began. And the percentage has been the same whether he has thrown a little (52.4% against Colorado on just 21 attempts) or a lot (92 attempts in his last two games). In those last two games, the Baylor offense has not been able to run the ball, averaging just 71 yards and 2.95 yards per carry. Both games have resulted in losses for the Bears in a non-competitive fashion. If Texas Tech can keep Baylor in obvious passing situations all game, expect the Red Raiders to win comfortably.
Texas Tech Week Eight Prediction
Much of the Texas Tech fan base is upset that the AP voters haven’t noticed the Red Raider’s 5-1 start. But with an opening-season survival effort against Abilene Christian, a turd laid against Washington State, and only one win of note (Arizona State), it is easy to see why they are still outside the top 25. If Texas Tech doesn’t want to be the butt of any more jokes, the need to win the BUTT Bowl emphatically.
In a 12-team playoff world, winning solves everything. Baylor is a struggling team this season. So if Texas Tech expects to be taken seriously, they need to handle their business and win this game decisively. Because the Bears struggle to stop the run, and the Texas Tech defense is starting to find its groove, expect the Red Raiders to leave no doubt in Lubbock.
Texas Tech 38, Baylor 21
