Saturday night on Montlake, we’ll see a rematch of last year’s National Championship. Michigan and Washington take center stage in what will be the Wolverines’ first regular-season trip to the Pacific time zone since 2003. The Maize and Blue have not won a regular season game in this time zone this millennium. The environment for the visitors on Saturday will be a sold-out Husky Stadium under the lights in primetime.
“It’s two huge brands,” Washington head coach Jedd Fisch said on Thursday leading up to the game. These two teams look much different than they did in January, but the identities remain much the same. Fisch described the physicality and toughness of which these two brands play. Running the football and playing great defense are two key ingredients to the Big Ten football brand. “This game is gonna be the epitome of those type of games.”
The Opponent
Michigan is not the team was a year ago when it won the National Championship. But neither is Washington. For the Wolverines, head coach Sherrone Moore has forged the offense beginning back in 2018. He began as the tight ends coach, before becoming the offensive line coach and co-offensive coordinator. Moore transitioned to the sole offensive coordinator in 2021. He now sits at the helm of the Wolverine operation.
But his offense is in a state of reconfiguration. Michigan maintains its identity as a run-heavy team this year. But the difference now is that it doesn’t have a noteworthy pass game. It has thrown the ball just 36% of the time this season. Alex Orji has been the starting quarterback for each of the Wolverines’ last two games. He’s just 17 of 30 in those two games for 118 yards. No Wolverine wide receiver has more than 70 receiving yards this season. Only tight end Colston Loveland has more than 12 catches. He has 23 this season with 228 yards and one score.
Michigan’s identity lies in the ground game. Kalel Mullings has become the premier back for the Wolverines, rushing for over 100 yards in each of the last three games with two touchdowns in each. In that stretch, he’s averaging 7.3 yards per carry. He rotates in with Donovan Edwards who’s averaging 4.3 yards per carry. But Michigan’s offense has a third running back with Orji, and he plays quarterback. He’s carried the ball 32 times this season with 22 in the last two games alone.
Playing The Field Position Game
Washington’s starting field position this year has been problematic. On non-garbage time possessions this season, the Huskies have had an average distance of 74.8 yards to go. That’s an average starting field position of its own 25-yard line, which ranks 120th nationally.
“I looked at that today, actually.” Fisch began. “It’s the great benefit of goal line stands.” To his point, Washington has made three goal-line stands this year. Those stands have resulted in the Huskies taking over deep inside their own territory. “I would prefer that than giving up a touchdown and getting the ball at the 25,” Fisch said. But the biggest challenge for Washington is when the script is flipped. “Can we as a defense go out there… make them punt it and get that field position back?” Fisch questioned. Washington has been held without points inside the opponent’s red zone five times this season. It turned the ball over to Rutgers three times inside the 25-yard line. Fisch wants to see his defense force end zone punts to boost the starting field position advantage.
But despite the difficulties in starting field position, the Huskies have moved the ball well. Washington’s offense ranks 21st nationally in total offense with 469 yards per game. It picks up 7.22 yards per play running an extremely balanced attack – 162 rush attempts and 163 pass attempts. In non-garbage time drives, the Washington offense averages 54% of its available yards per drive. For Washington, moving the football consistently on the Michigan defense is no guarantee. The field position game is going to be paramount on Saturday. It will come down to Washington’s ability to get off the field when on defense by way of forcing Michigan into quick possessions and punts.
Washington’s Path to Success
If Washington wants to get the Michigan defense off balance, it has to move with tempo. Michigan allowed three straight touchdown drives in the fourth quarter against Minnesota. The Golden Gophers went with a no-huddle, hurry-up offense for every one of its plays in the fourth quarter. Each drive ended with a touchdown, and Minnesota nearly pulled off the upset. Washington has operated out of the huddle and in a hurry up this season. We’ve seen the Huskies put together four and five-play scoring drives with tremendous efficiency when moving quickly. On Saturday, that’s going to be a piece to the puzzle.
Minnesota was able to come back last week because they kept the Wolverine offense sidelined. Two of Michigan’s non-end-of-game drives in the second half last week lasted four plays or less. Minnesota met that with a 12-play and a 14-play scoring drive while moving in a no huddle offense.
Will Rogers III is comfortable moving with this kind of tempo, as he routinely showed at Mississippi State, and as he’s shown through five games this season. Fisch and company have shown confidence in their wide receivers to be able to make plays this season. Short passing plays, and making the passing game an extension of the run game might be the best way for the Washington offense to develop a rhythm on Saturday. It has the personnel to do so.
Matchup to Watch
Denzel Boston has been quietly one of the top statistical wide receivers in the nation. The sophomore wide receiver has hauled in 30 passes this season with over 400 yards. He stands alone at second in the nation with seven receiving touchdowns on the season. Boston is off of back-to-back 100-plus yard receiving games and is establishing himself as a reliable X wide receiver for the Husky offense.
On Saturday, he’ll be guarded by one of the top cornerbacks in college football. Will Johnson was injured in the Wolverines’ game against USC but is expected to make his return in Seattle this weekend. Through four games played, Johnson has allowed 14 receptions on 21 targets, and just 39 total yards after the catch. He’s broken up three passes, and intercepted two passes, taking each to the house for six.
“That’s a great challenge and a great opportunity,” Fisch said on Thursday, speaking about Johnson and his counterpart Jyaire Hill. But the Washington head coach is confident in his wide receivers. The Husky offense is the only group in the nation with two wide receivers with over 400 receiving yards each. Boston and Giles Jackson are both above that mark. “We feel really good about our wide receivers.”
Prediction
The Michigan front seven is one of the best units in the nation. Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant are two disruptive defensive linemen. EDGE Josiah Stewart has broken out this season with 6.5 tackles for loss already. He and Jaishawn Barham have both been producing tremendous pressure on quarterbacks this season. Couple that with Johnson and the Wolverine secondary, the Washington offense is going to face its toughest test of the season.
Capitalizing on field position will likely be the difference in this game. Two of the Wolverines’ three touchdown drives last week against Minnesota began inside the Gopher 20-yard line. Michigan takes advantage of where they are on the field, and Washington can’t hand the Wolverines a plus-field. But the Huskies haven’t done that much this year. Outside of Rutgers’ first possession last week, the Scarlet Knights didn’t start a drive outside their own 25-yard line. Saturday’s game will be won in the margins. If Washington cleans up its unforced errors, it has a chance for the upset.
Washington – 20
Michigan – 17
