This is the cold hard truth. Last week’s Big 12 winners resulted in a lot of gut punches. The picks went 3-5 both on the money line and against the spread. Totals had normally been good this season but only gave us a 2-6 record in week four. The locks remained perfectly defeated and should be giving the public a great fade play at this point. But we finally have an all-conference slate in the Big 12 week five winners. Spoiler alert: expect some upsets this week. All lines are courtesy of FanDuel.
Season Totals
Moneyline: 35-18
Against The Spread: 19-30
Totals: 26-22
Locks: 0-6
Big 12 Week Five Winners
#20 Oklahoma State (+5.5) At #22 Kansas State
The Big 12 week five winners start with a doozy. Is this a playoff elimination game for the loser? Both teams have already suffered a conference loss. Dropping to 0-2 would be hard to overcome to get to the Big 12 title game, much less make it to the 12-team field as an at-large team. Oklahoma State is 101st nationally in run defense. Kansas State is 15th in rushing offense. The Wildcats are the home team. All signs point to Kansas State to bounce back. But just when we all turn our backs on Mike Gundy, he pulls a rabbit out of his hat. Expect him to find that magic one more time in Manhattan.
Moneyline: Oklahoma State ATS: Oklahoma State Total 54.5: Under
#22 BYU At Baylor (-3.5)
BYU is having its moment in the sun. They just need one more win to cover their preseason win total. Baylor is coming off a gut-wrenching loss. So why is the non-ranked home team a field goal favorite against the undefeated top-25 team? BYU’s dominant win over Kansas State was heavy on the smoke and mirrors variety. They had lots of short fields because of turnovers and a wild punt return touchdown. Baylor’s offense appears to have found something in quarterback Sawyer Robertson. With Dave Aranada’s seat only getting hotter, the Bears rally in an offensively challenged game.
Moneyline: Baylor ATS: Baylor Total 45.5: Under
TCU (+2.5) At Kansas
TCU does not have any wins to show for their offensive outputs. They have consecutive disappointing losses despite having 940 total yards of offense. Meanwhile, Kansas is finally regressing to its historical mean on the football field. Kansas’ defense is the stronger side of the ball so far in 2024 for the Jayhawks. But don’t expect Kansas to slow down TCU’s offense. Until Kansas shows us a clean game on offense, not riddled with turnovers, they will not be trusted. TCU gets a much-needed road win while Kansas head coach Lance Leipold stares longingly at a picture of him and Andy Kotelnicki.
Moneyline: TCU ATS: TCU Total 58.5: Over
Colorado (+14.5) At UCF
Assuming Hurrican Helene doesn’t leave damage in Orlando, this game should be a very entertaining affair. UCF has the nation’s top-ranked rushing attack, averaging 375 yards on the ground per game. Colorado ranks 82nd in rush defense. Meanwhile, UCF’s passing defense is ranked 94th while Colorado’s passing attack is ranked 5th. Each offense has the perfect way to attack the weakest point of the other’s defense. So when both teams should be able to score, as the total suggests, trying to cover more than two touchdowns seems like too much. UCF will win the game, but take it to the bank that Colorado will find a way to cover the spread.
Moneyline: UCF ATS: Colorado (lock) Total 64.5: Over
#18 Iowa State (-14.5) At Houston
In the Big 12 week five winners, the slate provided us a second double-digit spread for a road team. It still might not be enough points for Houston to keep this competitive. Iowa State is clicking on all cylinders. Meanwhile, Houston was embarrassed last week against Cincinnati 34-0. Matt Campbell’s team shouldn’t be looking ahead to (checks notes) a home game against Baylor. The Cyclones have a chance to cover this total by themselves in what should be a one-sided affair.
Moneyline: Iowa State ATS: Iowa State Total 43.5: Over
Cincinnati At Texas Tech (-2.5)
Much like the Colorado/UCF game, this game should produce a ton of points. No one knows for sure if either of these teams are above average because of their schedules. Defensive expectations in this one should be minimal for both sides in terms of the ball moving up and down the field. However, if Texas Tech can finish drives with touchdowns and not field goals, they will handle business against Scott Satterfield’s Bearcats.
Moneyline: Texas Tech ATS: Texas Tech Total 59.5: Over
Arizona At #10 Utah (-11.5)
Don’t ask about Cam Rising’s health. No one knows if he is going to play. It won’t matter in this game. Just look at what they did to Oklahoma State on the road. Yes, Arizona had a bye week to prepare and Tetairoa McMillan could just take over. But there is a good chance this game looks exactly like the 31-7 loss Arizona suffered to Kansas State. Utah is too strong defensively and playing in front of the home crowd, the Utes suffocate Arizona and remain undefeated.
Moneyline: Utah ATS: Utah Total 47.5: Over
