The Big 12 week four schedule brings us almost a full slate of conference games. After this week, except for Iowa State, all Big 12 members will have played one-third of their regular season. The season is one-third of the way complete. As for the picks, there is good news and bad news. The Moneyline (10-3) and totals (8-5) saved us. But the locks are officially on “automatic fade” status and against the spread went a very “meh” 6-7. All lines are courtesy of FanDuel.
Season Totals
Moneyline: 32-13
Against The Spread: 16-25
Totals: 24-16
Locks: 0-5
Big 12 Week Four Winners
Houston (+3.5) At Cincinnati
Houston appears to just be the more competent team here. It turns out their week one loss to UNLV is looking like they might have just run into a playoff contender in week one. There has been a noticeable difference in this team. As long as Cougars quarterback Donovan Smith protects the ball and makes sound decisions, Houston should leave Nipper with an outright win.
Moneyline: Houston ATS: Houston Total 47.5: Over
Kansas At West Virginia (-2.5)
Which one of these slumping teams can hold onto the football? These are two of the worst teams in all of FBS in protecting the football. Kansas ranks 128th nationally in turnovers lost with eight while West Virginia ranks tied for 110th with six. That said, both teams move the ball offensively at a similar clip as Kansas is ranked 69th nationally and West Virginia is 71st in total offense. Neither defense is that spectacular, so expect a bunch of points in a close game. In a coin-flip-type game, pick the home team.
Moneyline: West Virginia ATS: West Virginia Total 57.5: Over
Arkansas State (+21.5) At #20 Iowa State
Iowa State is one of two teams wrapping up non-conference play in the Big 12 week four schedule. But this number feels off. So far this season, Iowa State has two margin of victories by 18 points and one point. Meanwhile, Arkansas State is a 2-1 team that just played Michigan in the Big House to a 10-point margin. Much like the North Dakota game to open the season, Matt Campbell’s team will never be in jeopardy of losing this game. But they haven’t done anything to suggest they will beat a competent from the Sun Belt by more than three touchdowns.
Moneyline: Iowa State ATS: Arkansas State Total 51.5: Under
Arizona State (+2.5) At Texas Tech
Of all the Big 12 week four winners, this has major “fun” potential. Arizona State is having one of the most surprising starts in all of college football. Texas Tech has enough offensive firepower to cover any totals by themselves. However, if Arizona State can get Cam Skattebo going against one of the worst rush defenses in the country, the Sun Devils will give Texas Tech problems. Expect a close one in Lubbock with Arizona State pushing on to 4-0.
Moneyline: Arizona State ATS: Arizona State Total 58.5: Over
#12 Utah At #14 Oklahoma State (-2.5)
The marquee game on the Big 12 week four slate comes from Stillwater as a showdown between top-15 teams could be a potential Big 12 conference championship game rematch. This line has done some squirrely things in the last 24 hours. It originally was Oklahoma State +2.5 and swung a full four points in about four hours last night. Utah quarterback Cam Rising is still working through a hand injury that kept him out last week against Utah State.
However, no news has leaked on his status at the time of publication. Whether he plays or not, it doesn’t change the fact that Oklahoma State cannot run the football even with Ollie Gordon (presumably) healthy in the backfield. That said, Mike Gundy made the necessary adjustments last season. He should do that again here as the Pokes score a major victory with plenty of points scored by both teams.
Moneyline: Oklahoma State ATS: Oklahoma State Total 52.5: Over (lock)
TCU (-2.5) At SMU
SMU has handled its quarterback position as oddly as a team can handle it. TCU is kicking themselves after letting the UCF game slip out of their hands. But when the skillet is on the line, throw it all out the window. That said, SMU has not looked sharp at all this year. Until SMU can demonstrate four complete quarters of football, they cannot be trusted. Assuming Sonny Dykes has his Horned Frog team operating on a similar level as last week, they should roll against their ACC rival.
Moneyline: TCU ATS: TCU Total 58.5: Over
Baylor At Colorado (-1.5)
If Deion Sanders had not been the coach at Colorado, this game would have never made it into a prime-time television window. But credit should be paid to Sanders for turning the Buffalos (for better or worse) into must-see television. However, they could be on the brink of becoming a much more competitive football team if last week was any indication. Baylor’s defense has been above average so far, but so has Colorado’s. In the end, one team has Travis Hunter and the other doesn’t. Colorado starts Big 12 play with a comfortable victory over Baylor.
Moneyline: Colorado ATS: Colorado Total 50.5: Under
#13 Kansas State At BYU (+6.5)
Closing out the Big 12 week four schedule is a late-night trap for the Wildcats. Thanks to their dominating win over Arizona, Kansas State moved to the top in the Big 12 week four power rankings. Next week, the Wildcats host Oklahoma State. But before a showdown with the Cowboys, Chris Klieman better have his team focused on a trip up to Provo. BYU currently is 3-0 as well, albeit against a much easier schedule. How real is this BYU defense that has yet to allow more than 15 points in a game this year and ranks 14th nationally in total defense? In a classic look-ahead spot, Kansas State is pushed to the brink of an upset. But Avery Johnson makes one or two game-changing plays to secure a victory.
Moneyline: Kansas State ATS: BYU Total 47.5: Over
