With the nationalization of sports gambling, the public has more access to early season thoughts from Vegas. Back in February, the first Big 12 win totals for the 2024 season were released. But those came out before Spring practices and the Spring transfer portal window closed. That, and likely some action from the public, moved four of those February totals, with three of those numbers going down. This means the public was fading three Big 12 teams early in the Springtime. But with less than 40 days until Colorado opens the 2024 season and all the rosters officially set, it is time to pick some winners. With 16 teams in the conference, we are going to divide up our selection into two parts. All totals referenced are listed on FanDuel.
2024 Big 12 Win Totals
Arizona: Over/Under: 7.5
Starting with one of the newest members of the Big 12, the Arizona Wildcats finished 2023 with major momentum after a 10-win season. Even with a new head coach, they still enter the league with possibly the best quarterback/wide receiver combination in Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan. The public is down on the Cats though as their opening win total has dropped from 8.5 to 7.5 wins. Arizona also has one of the most intriguing non-conference games against Kansas State this year. In year one under new head coach Brent Brennan, even with top-tier skill talent, Last Word thinks the Wildcats will take a step back and win 7 games in their first Big 12 season.
The Pick: Under 7.5
Arizona State: Over/Under: 4.5
Depending on when a new coach takes over, often their first year will be viewed as a “year zero.” There are very few times in which a coach is going into his second season and the expectation is still only viewed as “year 1.25.” But that is where Kenny Dillingham finds himself as the Sun Devils head coach. They lost who they thought their quarterback of the future was going to be in Jaden Rashada to the transfer portal. The Sun Devils still lack the depth of Big 12 talent all across the board. Expect another long season in the desert.
The Pick: Under 4.5
Baylor: Over/Under: 5.5
Baylor has been red hot on the recruiting trail over the last 2 months. As of July 22nd, the Bears have the third-highest-ranked class in the Big 12 and the 29th-ranked class for 2025. At Big 12 media days, head coach Dave Aranda stated very bluntly how they are doing it. Aranda is going to need to stay hot there because the results on the field are not going to do anything for his job security. While the defense should be improved with Aranda taking the play calling over, Baylor’s roster has not yet upgraded enough to become a bowl team.
The Pick: Under 5.5
BYU: Over/Under: 4.5
Coming into 2023, there were some rumblings of BYU being able to compete right away. In recent years, the Cougars had scheduled a pseudo Pac-12 schedule. Turns out, playing an extra five and six games at the (now) Power Four level makes a big difference. They struggled mightily on offense and missed a bowl game for the first time since 2017. BYU is hoping transfer quarterback Gerry Bohanon can spark the offense. BYU is not going to be competing for a conference title this year. But having picked three straight under in the Big 12 win totals, it means the door is open just enough for BYU to get at least 5 wins.
The Pick: Over 4.5
Cincinnati: Over/Under: 5.5
Speaking of the newcomers, no one had a worse first year in the Big 12 than Cincinnati. The biggest struggle they faced was finishing drives. Moving the ball only seemed to be an issue when they arrived at the opponent’s 20-yard line. Now, in year two under Scott Satterfield, they have brought in a ton of new transfers in hopes of him putting his stamp on the program. And while they have the single best offensive lineman in the conference, they need help in all phases. It’s going to be too big of an ask for a team that only won three games last year to double their win total from last year.
The Pick: Under 5.5
Colorado: Over/Under: 5.5
Of all the Big 12 win totals, no team has a bigger range of possible outcomes than Colorado. They have the best defensive back in the conference (and possibly the country). The Buffs also have one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Shedeur Sanders. Coach Deion Sanders has used the portal for another offensive line in the hopes a second crack at it pays off. Colorado has a tough non-conference slate as well as being “everyone’s Super Bowl,” so they are going to get the best shot from everyone. Last year showed how quickly things can go south with issues on the offensive line. The skills and talent will get this team close to a bowl game but still have reservations about a brand-new offensive line trying to gel in one year.
The Pick: Under 5.5
Houston: Over/Under: 3.5
Houston should be thrilled with the hiring of Willie Fritz. He has a proven track record of building successful programs. He won two JUCO national titles at Blinn College and reached the FCS national title game twice with Sam Houston. Fritz is also fresh off of taking Tulane to five bowl games (including upsetting USC in the Cotton Bowl) in seven seasons. Prior to Fritz, Tulane had gone to five bowl games in the previous 35 seasons. But this Houston program is down bad right now. Last year they went 4-8, but one of those wins came in a week one 17-14 struggle against a UTSA team without its playmaking quarterback, had a miracle answered against West Virginia, and squeaked out a one-point overtime victory over a 3-9 Baylor team. This team is positioned for another rough year. A one-win season is on the table.
The Pick: Under 3.5
Iowa State: Over/Under: 7.5
Matt Campbell and his Cyclones finished 2023 winning five of their last seven games. They rank first nationally in returning production. Some of that returning production includes quarterback Rocco Becht who threw for 3,120 yards and 23 touchdowns as a freshman. All five starting offensive linemen are back. They are deep in the defensive trenches and in the secondary. The problem they are facing is their history, specifically in one-score games. In their last 16 one-score games, Iowa State is 3-13. Campbell has only won eight regular season games two times in his seven seasons in Ames. If the helmet was different, all the pieces are in place to suggest a breakout season. But Last Word is going to default to what history has told us the Cyclones usually are.
The Pick: Under 7.5
