With the coaching carousel appearing to come to a standstill finally, it is time to take a peak ahead at the 2024 season. Vegas has already set the win totals for all teams in what we all knew as the Power Five. So let’s play everyone’s favorite off-season game of college football MASH. If you aren’t old enough to know what MASH is, I’m sorry you had a sub-par elementary school experience. Anyways, which of the Big 12 win totals for the 2024 season have everyone pausing and going “Hmmm. Interesting.”
Vegas Doesn’t See Any Elite Teams in the Big 12
Across all of college football, there are only four teams (Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon, and Texas) that have win totals set as high as 10.5 wins. Eleven teams have win totals set at 9.5, with two of those teams residing in the Big 12. Those two teams are Utah and Kansas State. The Utes are making their Big 12 conference debut as one of the two favorites (according to Vegas) to win the new-look Big 12. Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham should finally have back a healthy Cameron Rising at quarterback. Yes, Rising is back for one last college football season after sitting out all of last year with an injury. Rising was a part of the 2018 recruiting cycle. Funny enough, Rising isn’t the only quarterback in the Big 12 from the 2018 recruiting class that will start games this year. That would be Oklahoma State’s Alan Bowman.
Meanwhile, Kansas State enters the season in a similar position as 2023. The 2022 Big 12 champions came in with high expectations to at least compete to be at the top of the Big 12 standings. And for the most part, Chris Klieman’s team was hovering around those expectations for most of the season. If the November loss to Texas saw an overtime conversion being converted, the Wildcats very easily could have played for a Big 12 title again. Even without the title, the Wildcats finished the season ranked in the last college football playoff top 25 in back-to-back seasons for the first time ever. It is also the first time they have finished ranked in the final AP Top 25 poll in consecutive seasons since 2011-2012. With quarterback Will Howard transferring to Ohio State, it is very clearly Avery Johnson’s team now.
Really? (“No Way They Are Going Over”)
Still No Prime Time
The impact Deion Sanders had on the 2023 college football season was undeniable. The question for the Buffs now becomes can they improve on last year’s up-and-down season? Vegas has set Colorado’s win total at 5.5. The road to bowl eligibility will not be kind to Colorado. They open the season against North Dakota State. This is a FCS program that has appeared in six national championship games (with five wins) since 2017. Not exactly the program a coach would want to break in a brand-new offensive line against. The next week they travel to what should be an improved Nebraska team. Then it’s time for their annual rivalry game with Colorado State. Big 12 play includes games against Kansas State and Arizona in back-to-back weeks. Their season also concludes with games at Texas Tech, vs. Utah, at Kansas, and vs. Oklahoma State to close out the season. Colorado will look better, but won’t see much improvement in the win column from 2023.
Too Many Bear Traps
Baylor is another team that is looking to bounce back after a disappointing 2023 season. Dave Arranda enters the season firmly on the hot seat and it could get hotter very quickly. The Bears go to Utah and host Air Force (who won 9 games last year) in back-to-back weeks before non-conference play. They also have consecutive road games against Iowa State and Texas Tech (with a bye week sandwiched in between). The Big 12 win totals have six teams hovering around bowl eligibility, with Baylor checking in at 5.5. Don’t expect Arranda to be the coach of the Bears in 2025.
Dull Pitch Forks
Kenny Dillingham was always going to need time at Arizona State. It started rough as Arizona State self-imposed a one-year bowl ban just two weeks before the 2023 season started. They only won three games in 2023. Even though Arizona State only has a total of 4.5, it will be a tough hill to climb. The first seven weeks of the season look like this for the Sun Devils:
- Wyoming
- Mississippi State
- at Texas State
- at Texas Tech
- Bye
- Kansas
- Utah
If that stretch wasn’t tough enough, they also have road games at Kansas State and Arizona in November. This build was always going to take time, and 2024’s campaign will not be one full of significant progress.
Really? (“We Found the Value Vegas Missed”)
Pokes Riding High
Most of the Big 12 totals (all can be found below) are set at a very appropriate number, meaning they should see action equally on both sides of the number. But there is one team that appears undervalued by the books despite a long history of success. Oklahoma State’s win total is sitting at 7.5. In the last 16 seasons, Mike Gundy has led the Cowboys to at least eight regular-season wins 11 times. They do open with back-to-back FCS national champion South Dakota State. It is a tricky home opener, but still very winnable. They also have Arkansas at home (borderline bowl team) and Tulsa for their non-conference schedule. Oklahoma State also has a four-game stretch in the middle of the season against teams that did not make a bowl game in 2023. Expect the Pokes to be near the top of the Big 12 standings when the dust settles and cashing that win total ticket.
All Big 12 Win Totals
- Arizona: 8.5
- Arizona State: 4.5
- Baylor: 5.5
- BYU: 4.5
- Cincinnati: 5.5
- Colorado: 5.5
- Houston: 4.5
- Iowa State: 7.5
- Kansas: 8.5
- Kansas State: 9.5
- Oklahoma State: 7.5
- TCU: 7.5
- Texas Tech: 8.5
- UCF: 8.5
- Utah: 9.5
- West Virginia: 6.5
