Since Texas Tech played on a Thursday night, the Red Raiders got a mini-bye week to prepare for Kansas. Head Coach Joey McGuire is looking to win consecutive games for only the second time this season after winning the Saddle trophy last week against TCU. They face a difficult task this week traveling to Lawrence. A Texas Tech week 11 upset means the Red Raider defense is going to have to slow down a rolling Jayhawk offense.
Keep the Red Raider Offense Hot
It has been quite a quarterback journey the last two seasons in Lubbock. Last week, getting a healthy Behren Morton made a big difference to the offense. Morton’s quality play brought balance to the Red Raider attack. Last week against TCU, Texas Tech hit the 35-point mark for the 10th time in 22 games under McGuire. The Red Raiders are a perfect 10-0 in McGuire’s tenure when scoring 35 or more points in a game. A Texas Tech week 11 showdown against the Jayhawks defense, especially in the running game, should come with little resistance.
Kansas’ rush defense ranks 10th in the Big 12 and 91st nationally in rushing yards allowed per game (163.6). That sets the table for Tahj Brooks to have a big day. According to Pro Football Focus, Brooks has forced 68 missed tackles. That currently leads all Power Five players. Brooks also is one of only three power five rushers with at least 50 forced missed tackles in 2023. In Kansas’ two losses, they yielded 336 and 218 yards rushing to Texas and Oklahoma State respectively. If Brooks carries the ball 30+ times for the third time this season, the passing attack simply needs to not turn the ball over and the points will come in bunches. But it’s the other side of the ball that will determine if the Red Raiders can get out of Lawrence with a win.
Kansas Can Score Points in Bunches
Kansas Jayhawk head coach Lance Leipold has done a tremendous job having to juggle two quarterbacks all season. Coming into the season, the Jayhawks were bringing back one of the best playmakers in the conference, Jalon Daniels. When Daniels has played, he has been tremendous. He has averaged a completion percentage of 74.7% with five touchdowns and only one touchdown. The problem has been a nagging back injury that has limited to him only three games this season. However, the offense has not skipped a beat with Jason Bean running the offense.
Kansas ranks second in the Big 12 and 13th nationally in passing efficiency. What exactly is passing efficiency? The formula the NCAA uses is as follows:
Passing Efficiency = {(Completions * 100) + (Passing Yards * 8.4) + (Passing Touchdowns * 330) – (Interceptions * 200)} / Passing Attempts.
To sum it up, the formula rewards quarterbacks for accuracy and downfield aggression. Those efficient passing performance by both Daniels and Bean has guided the Jayhawks to the third-best scoring offense in the Big 12 (30th nationally) averaging 34.9 points a game. In four of Bean’s starts, he had completion percentages of 78.6, 66.7, 67.6, and 60.9%.
Disrupt Potent Jayhawk Passing Attack
However, Bean has shown though that he can be rattled. Two of his starts saw his completion percentage drop into the 40’s (42.9 and 46%.). A Texas Tech week 11 victory can be achieved if the defense steps up. The Red Raider’s passing efficiency defense is average at best, ranking 47th nationally. The biggest issue Texas Tech faces in slowing down this passing attack is the lack of a pass rush. Texas Tech ranks 96th nationally in sacks per game and 93rd in tackles for loss. So it is going to require the secondary to play its best game. Can defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter disguise coverages to force some passes to get snatched up by the Red Raider defense? Winning the turnover margin will go a long way in determining this one. In two seasons under McGuire, Texas Tech 7-2 when tied or leading the turnover battle.
Texas Tech Week 11 Prediction
If McGuire would have had swapped the 2022 and 2023 on-field results, the progress of this program would never have been in question. Leipold’s team has built perfectly linearly in his three years in Lawrence. The Jayhawks expect to win now. No longer does this team play “hoping” to win. From a pure on-paper talent comparison, the Jayhawks are no more talented than the Red Raiders. But Kansas is playing and executing at a different level than Texas Tech is. It should be an entertaining battle for four quarters. However, keeping on brand with how each team season has played out, Texas Tech will make one or two critical mistakes aiding Kansas in making the winning plays late in a high-scoring win for the Jayhawks.
Kansas 41, Texas Tech 31
