Homecoming in Iowa City sets the stage for the afternoon kickoff between the Big Ten West Champions of back-to-back seasons. Iowa claimed the division in 2021, and Purdue won the west a season ago. The Boilermakers have had the upper hand in this matchup, winning four of the last six meetings. But the teams have split the last two, each with a victory by two scores or more. Saturday’s matchup will feature a couple of transfer quarterbacks, a theme of Big Ten West programs this year.
The Opponent
Much has changed in West Lafayette from the Big Ten West championship team last year. It starts at the helm with head coach Ryan Walters. The former Illinois defensive coordinator took over at Purdue this offseason, revamping the Purdue coaching staff. Former Texas Tech star quarterback Graham Harrell is the offensive coordinator, coming over from previous stints at USC and West Virginia. Last year’s outside linebacker coach at Illinois Kevin Kane moved to West Lafayette with Walters and was elevated to defensive coordinator. The changes don’t end with the coaching staff.
Purdue, like six of the seven Big Ten West programs, brought in a transfer quarterback this offseason. Former Texas Longhorn Hudson Card is under center for the Boilermakers. He currently ranks third in the Big Ten with 250 passing yards per game. Deion Burks has been Card’s primary target. Burks has 20 catches for 377 yards and four touchdowns this season.
On the ground, Purdue has worked two running backs in rotation, Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Devon Mockobee. Tracy Jr. transferred from Iowa to Purdue following the 2021 season as a wide receiver, but he has found his place in the offense this year in the backfield. He is averaging just over six yards per carry with 46 touches on the season with five scores. Tracy Jr. will look to have a big game against his former team on Saturday much like Charlie Jones did against Iowa last year for Purdue.
Boilermaker Tempo
Purdue runs a tempo offense, the offense averages one play every 24.6 seconds. For reference, the fastest team in the nation this year runs a play every 20.5 seconds. The Boilermakers are also averaging 73 offensive plays per game, second most in the Big Ten. Earlier this season, Iowa faced the sixth-fastest team in the nation, Utah State who runs a play every 21.5 seconds. The Hawkeyes were ultimately able to get the win over the Aggies. But their tempo caused some problems for the Iowa defense, specifically with the linebackers.
Against Utah State, the Aggies found mismatches against the Hawkeye linebackers when running quickly. They were able to line up faster receivers in the slot and take advantage of linebackers in coverage. The Aggies completed nine of 11 passes for 90 yards to receivers covered by Iowa linebackers. Those 90 reception yards accounted for 43% of the Aggie passing yards that day. Part of Iowa’s path to victory on Saturday is going to be its linebackers limiting air yardage.
The Boilermakers are also a team that’s going to look to throw the ball early and in critical down situations. They’ve been successful this season doing so. On 77 attempts, Purdue has 532 passing yards on first down. Only Maryland has more first-down passing attempts in the Big Ten this season. On third down, Purdue has been very productive through the air. Card is fourth nationally with a 75.7% completion percentage on third down, completing 28 of 37 passes. Card also leads the conference with 20 third-down conversions via the pass. Iowa is allowing opponents to convert on 33.7% of third downs this season, good for 34th nationally. That’s a step back from last season, but still very solid.
Starting Quarterback at Iowa
Deacon Hill will make his first career start on Saturday. Cade McNamara is out for the remainder of the season with an ACL injury. With Hill, Iowa has an opportunity to look a little different on offense. For starters, he’s six-foot-three and 258 pounds with a huge arm. The quarterback said the furthest he has thrown a football is 73 or 74 yards. He’s also 100% healthy, which is not something Iowa has been able to tout at quarterback this season. McNamara had the quad issue throughout his five games this season. Hill is also not exclusively a pocket passer. He can run effectively, and could probably break a few tackles if he had to.
In addition to his physical skill set, Hill had the opportunity to work with the starting rotation for much of the Spring and Fall camp. He has great chemistry with his receivers already and might mesh with this offense quicker than that of a typical quarterback starting his first career game.
Purdue’s Five-Man Front
Up front, the Hawkeye offensive line is going to be fed a unique challenge. Purdue runs a five-man defensive front. This means that instead of a gap scheme, Purdue is going to line up a hat on a hat, producing one-on-one matchups at the point of attack. Post-snap, the goal is for the interior defensive linemen to create a push up front while maintaining a wall. The edge rushers set outside leverage while working to flatten out the rush and pinch in on the quarterback. This forces the quarterback to either step up into that wall, try and scramble, or get rid of the football.
Iowa’s pass protection has been in the top third nationally, but they have yet to face this kind of rush at the Power Five level this season. In Hill’s first action last week, he showed confidence in the pocket. But for his first start, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Iowa run more 12 personnel packages in passing situations this week. In this personnel package, there is one running back, two tight ends, and two wide receivers. The additional tight end can help with the kind of rush Purdue hopes to run, while still getting a couple of passing options at wide receiver and tight end.
Getting You Set: Iowa vs. Purdue, Prediction
The path to victory for Iowa against Purdue is going to begin as usual, with defense and opportunistic football. Specifically, Iowa will need to get off the field on third down. Purdue has shown consistency in passing the ball on third down, and the Boilermakers convert on 44% of their third downs, fourth best in the conference. Iowa cannot afford to fall into the pattern of long opponent drives followed by three-and-outs on offense.
In its two Big Ten games thus far, Iowa has averaged three plays per drive against Penn State, and four plays per drive against Michigan State. Iowa has also lost the time of possession battle in each of those two games. Purdue will run tempo and pressure the defense on third down. But if the Hawkeyes can get third down stops, they’ll be able to better control the tempo of the game. In a matchup like this with two opposite tempo styles, the team that can control the tempo is going to have a better chance to win.
Prediction
Iowa – 27
Purdue – 17
