Breaking Down SEC West Win Totals
Alabama
O/U: 10.5
Nonconference Opponents: Middle Tennessee (H), Texas (H), South Florida (A), Chattanooga
SEC East Opponents: Tennessee (H), Kentucky (A)
Prediction:
Under. Change seems to be the only constant in Tuscaloosa. Nick Saban shook up his coordinators by bringing in Tommy Rees to run the Tide’s offense and Kevin Steele to run the defense. Rees is a former Notre Dame quarterback who spent the last six seasons in South Bend, the last three running the offense. Alabama’s offense ranked 11th last year in total offense and averaged 41.7 ppg under Bill O’Brien. Notre Dame was 60th in the country, averaging 31.8 ppg. Gone too are Bryce Young and Jamhyr Gibbs to the NFL. Needless to say, there are more questions than answers heading into 2023 for the Tide.
LSU
O/U: 9.5
Nonconference Opponents: Florida State (N), Grambling State (H), Army (H), Georgia State (H)
SEC East Opponents: Missouri (A), Florida (H)
Prediction:
Over. Brian Kelly had his doubters heading into the 2022 season. From talking about his “family” at his introduction to dancing with recruits, many were waiting for the Tigers to stumble. Kelly is too good of a coach and his track record shows he can build a strong program and win wherever he goes. Kelly overcame a blocked extra point against the Seminoles and a blowout loss to the Volunteers to lead the Tigers to wins over Alabama and win the SEC West. Jayden Daniels returns to lead the offense in 2023 and Harold Perkins Jr. will be one of the top defensive players in the country. A second straight trip to Atlanta is not out of the cards for LSU.
Texas A&M
O/U: 7.5
Nonconference Opponents: New Mexico, Miami (A), Lousiana-Monroe (H), Abilene Christian
SEC East Opponents: Tennessee (A), South Carolina (H)
Prediction:
Under. After a disastrous 2022 season, the Aggies went from ranked No. 6 in the preseason to finishing the year 5-7 and 2-6 in conference play. An $86 million dollar buyout kept Jimbo Fisher from being fired. At one time, Fisher was considered one of the top offensive play callers in the game. Last season, proved that is no longer the case. The Aggies finished 93rd in the country in total offense. Bobby Petrino and Steve Addazio were hired in the offseason to help resurrect the offense.
Arkansas
O/U: 7
Nonconference Opponents: Western Carolina (H), Kent State (H), BYU (H), FIU (H)
SEC East Opponents: Florida (A), Missouri (H)
Prediction:
Over. Arkansas took a small step back in 2022 after winning nine games in 2021. Two two-point losses to Texas A&M and Liberty took some of the shine off Sam Pittman’s third season in Fayetteville. Dan Enos steps in as offensive coordinator to fill the void left after Kendall Briles left to take over the play-calling duties at TCU. This is Enos’s second stint in Fayetteville after serving as Bret Bielema’s offensive coordinator from 2015-0217. Enos has KJ Jefferson returning at quarterback. Jefferson started in 11 of 13 games for the Razorbacks in 2022 passing for 2,648 yards, 24 touchdowns, and just five interceptions. A favorable non-conference schedule and two of the lesser SEC East Teams should see Pittman and Arkansas back with eight or nine wins.
Auburn
O/U: 6.5
Nonconference Opponents: UMass (H), Cal (H), Samford (H), New Mexico State (H)
SEC East Opponents: Georgia (H), Vanderbilt (A)
Prediction:
Under. The Bryan Harsin experiment is over on The Plains. Auburn fans clamored for Auburn AD John Coehn to swing big and bring in Lane Kiffin or Hugh Freeze to Auburn. The newly hired Cohen took a leap and hired Freeze from Liberty. Freeze had tremendous success in his short time in Oxford defeating Alabama in back-to-back seasons in 2014 and 2015. The party for Freeze at Ole Miss as soon as started. Freeze resigned in the summer of 2017 under recruiting sanction and personal conduct allegations. Freeze resurfaced again at Liberty and went 34-15 as the head coach of the Flames. Expectations will be high in Auburn.
The Tigers have fallen behind top rivals Georgia and Alabama on the field and in recruiting. Georgia has won 9 of the last 10 games in the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry and Auburn is 3-7 against Alabama in the Iron Bowl. After falling behind in recruiting, many expected Freeze to dive head-first into the transfer portal this season. Auburn ranks 23rd in the country and is relying upon Michigan State transfer quarterback Payton Thorne to guide them.
Ole Miss
O/U: 6.5
Nonconference Opponents: Mercer (H), Tulane (A), Georgia Tech (H), Louisiana-M0nroe (H)
SEC East Opponents: Vanderbilt (H), Georgia (A)
Prediction:
Over. Lane Kiffin is college football’s Portal King, sorry Coach Prime. Kiffin will have three quarterbacks to choose from this Fall. Jaxson Dart (a transfer from USC in 2022) is the returning starter. After an uneven performance, Kiffin brought in Walker Howard (LSU) and Spencer Sanders (Oklahoma State) to push Dart. Kiffin promotes competition and knows he must use the Transfer Portal to make up for any shortcomings from high school recruiting. He’s not worried about hurting player’s feelings, but making the Rebels better. As he told ESPN, “Just like the pros, we can’t sign players based on your feelings.”
Mississippi State
O/U: 6.5
Nonconference Opponents: Southern Louisiana (H), Arizona (H), Western Michigan (H)
SEC East Opponents: South Carolina (A), Kentucky (H)
Prediction:
Under. The pirate left before Stark Vegas really got to know him. Mississippi State and college football were rocked by the death of Mike Leach in December following the end of the regular season. Leach seemed to be a natural fit in Starkville and had the Bulldogs trending in an upward direction. Leach’s Defensive Coordinator Zach Arnett steps in to fill Leach’s shoes. Arnett is a mastermind of the 3-3-5 defense and is just 36 years old. Gone with Leach is the Air Raid as most of the offensive staff has turned over. Mississippi State needs to do things differently to win. Leach did that with the Air Raid, will the 3-3-5 defense be enough?
