Air Force enters the 2026 season trying to climb out of a rare slump. After two straight losing years — something Troy Calhoun almost never experiences — the Falcons are looking for a reset. Last season was a strange mix of extremes. The offense was vintage Air Force: top‑three nationally in rushing, near the top in time of possession, and still explosive enough to lead the country in yards per completion. But none of that mattered because the defense simply couldn’t stop anyone. Opponents converted more than half of their third‑down chances, one of the worst marks in the nation, and too many late‑game collapses turned winnable contests into frustrating losses.
Air Force Falcons 2026 Season Preview, Odds, Win Total & Prediction
The good news is that Air Force has been here before. Calhoun’s program has a long history of bouncing back after down cycles, and the Mountain West’s new, weakened structure gives the Falcons a real chance to make noise if both sides of the ball stabilize. The staff believes last year’s youth movement — especially on defense — cost them in close games but will pay off now that those players have real experience.
Current Odds & Win Total
To Win The Mountain West Conference – +600
Win Total – Over 7.5 (-114)/ Under 7.5 (-105)
Air Force’s Offensive Outlook
Offensively, Air Force feels much better about its identity heading into 2026. Quarterback Liam Szarka returns after flashing star potential before a wrist injury cut his season short. He was one of the most dangerous dual‑threat quarterbacks in the conference, leading the Mountain West in rushing touchdowns and ranking near the top in rushing yards per game. His ability to turn broken plays into chunk gains gives Air Force a dimension most option teams don’t have.
The backfield is, as usual, deep and reliable. Fullback Owen Allen returns after posting multiple 100‑yard games, and the rotation behind him — Rocco Conti, Jalen Rashad Turner, and Gage LaDue — gives Air Force plenty of fresh legs to keep the ground attack rolling. The receiving corps is thin on experience, but that’s rarely a major concern in an offense that runs the ball roughly 80 percent of the time. Jonah Dawson is the top returning pass catcher, and the staff hopes a couple of younger players emerge to keep defenses honest. The offensive line loses a few all‑conference players, but Air Force typically reloads well up front.
Air Force’s Defensive Outlook
Defense is where the real work begins. The line was gutted by graduation, leaving Air Force with a room full of unproven players who now need to grow up fast. Names like Grady Forsythe, Bennett Williams, and Chaz Barnett will be watched closely to see who can become a consistent disruptor. The linebackers, however, are the strength of the team. Blake Fletcher returns after leading the Falcons in tackles and earning All‑Mountain West honors, and he’s flanked by Dallas Daley and Isaac Hubert — a trio that gives Air Force one of the better linebacker groups in the conference. The secondary is experienced and should be the most stable part of the defense. Safety Roger Jones Jr. is an all‑conference candidate, and the cornerback group has logged plenty of snaps.
Special teams should improve as well. Kicker Jacob Medina struggled enough to lose his job last season, but a strong spring has him back in position to start. Will Duncan takes over punting duties, giving Air Force a fresh leg in the field‑position game.
Air Force’s Final Outlook
The final outlook is cautiously optimistic. Air Force has a proven head coach, a star‑caliber quarterback, and a run game that will once again be one of the best in the country. The question is whether the defense can climb from “liability” to “competent.” If the young linemen develop and the secondary holds up, the Falcons have enough experience and stability to return to bowl season — and possibly contend in a reshaped Mountain West. After two down years, the pieces are finally in place for Air Force to look like Air Force again.
Final Win Total Prediction – Over 7.5 (-114)
