Here it is the Early 2026 College Football Playoff Projections. Hello everyone, and welcome to our first picks of 2026. Now that we’ve hit the month of July, it’s time to get serious about the upcoming season. We are doing things a little differently for this first projection. Today, we’ll focus specifically on the college football playoff. Then, we’ll go through the rest of the bowl schedule. There’s been a lot going on in the college football world since we last left you in January when Indiana shocked the world by winning the national championship. Can a team come from out of nowhere again this season? Let’s break it all down with our Early 2026 College Football Playoff Projections.
Early 2026 College Football Playoff Projections
How The Process Works
After all the talk about expansion for 2026, the playoff committee left things the way they were, with a 12-team playoff. There are 12 teams in the playoffs, and the top four still get a first-round bye. However, the winners of the Power Four conferences don’t automatically get slots 1-4. In addition, the highest-ranked Group of Five team receives a bid. That leaves seven at-large teams. Once again, seeds 5-8 host first-round games on campus. The New Year’s Six bowls are introduced for the next round and the semi-finals. Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas hosts the title game on January 25th. With the formalities out of the way, let’s get to our Early 2026 College Football Playoff Projections.
College Football Playoff First Round
Friday, December 18th- Lubbock, Texas (9) LSU vs. (8) Texas Tech– The Lane Train left Oxford and pulled into the Baton Rouge station. Trying to figure out who gets in from the SEC is always a challenge. However, for this first round of picks, the Tigers are in. No club has been in the news more than the Red Raiders. So much so, they are getting their own series on Paramount Plus. Even without Brendan Sorsby, we like Tech to repeat as Big 12 champs.
Saturday, December 19th – Columbus, Ohio (11) Ole Miss vs. (6) Ohio State – Kiffin’s old squad, which is coming off a loss in the semifinals, is back in for 2026. Of course, having Trinidad Chambliss back under center doesn’t hurt. On the other side of the ball, Ryan Day’s club projects out of the top four, but gets to host a first-round game, probably at Noon.
Saturday, December 19th- Bloomington, Indiana- (10) SMU at (7) Indiana– As the old cliché says, “it’s harder to stay on top than to get there.” However, with TCU transfer Josh Hoover taking over from Mendoza, we don’t expect Curt Cignetti’s club to miss a step. The Mustangs went to the playoffs in 2024 but just missed out last year after a loss to Cal put them in a five-way tiebreaker. Of course, Duke ended up winning out. Rhett Lashlee’s squad is a legit playoff contender.
Saturday, December 19th- Athens, Georgia- (12) UNLV at (5) Georgia– As it is every year, one of the biggest challenges in predicting the playoff is who wins the Group of Six bid. For our first picks this year, we’re going with the Rebels. In fact, a first-week meeting between UNLV and Memphis could help decide the winner. It’s been a relatively quiet off-season for Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs. Honestly, for a team that’s loaded on both sides of the ball, that’s not a bad thing.
Playoff Quarterfinals
Wednesday, December 30th- VRBO Fiesta Bowl- (5) Georgia vs. (4) Notre Dame- We’re picking the Bulldogs to get past UNLV and set up a showdown in the desert with the Fighting Irish. As long as Marcus Freeman’s club ends up ranked in the top 12, they’re guaranteed a playoff bid. That shouldn’t be a problem this year.
Friday, January 1st- Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl- (1) Miami vs. (8) Texas Tech– After the Red Raiders get past LSU, that sets up a date with the Hurricanes. Our projections have last year’s runner-up winning the ACC and heading into the playoff as the top seed. Darian Mensah takes over for Carson Beck for the “U.” This should be a wild one down in Texas.
Friday, January 1st- Rose Bowl Presented By Prudential- (6) Ohio State vs. (3) Oregon– The Big Ten has three teams in our top seven as the league looks for a fourth straight title. However, with Dante Moore returning, we’re picking the Ducks to win the league and then have an all-Big Ten Rose Bowl after the Buckeyes knock off Ole Miss. This marks two years to the day since the schools played in Pasadena in the playoffs.
Friday, January 1st- Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic- (7) Indiana vs. (2) Texas– On paper, our final matchup is one of the best. After getting past SMU, the Hoosiers head to Dallas to face the Longhorns. Led by Arch Manning, we’re picking Texas to win the SEC and make it back to the playoff after missing out last season.
That’s a lot to digest, but there’s still plenty more to come as we roll on with our Early 2026 College Football Playoff Projections.
College Football Playoff Semi-Finals And Finals
Thursday, January 14th- Capital One Orange Bowl- (4) Notre Dame vs. (1) Miami– The Hurricanes’ reward for getting past Texas Tech is essentially a home game in the semi-finals. We are picking the Fighting Irish to get past Georgia to set up a rematch of a contest played at Notre Dame on November 7th.
Friday, January 15th- Allstate Sugar Bowl- (3) Oregon vs. (2) Texas– Manning versus Moore for a chance at the national championship, sign us up now. These two schools have met six times in history, with Texas holding a 4-2 lead. However, the Ducks have won two in a row, with the last meeting coming in the 2013 Alamo Bowl.
Monday, January 25th- College Football National Championship- (2) Texas vs. (1) Miami– We’re going chalk with our first projections having the top two teams meet in Las Vegas. The Hurricanes and Longhorns have met four times all-time, with each school winning twice. Their last meeting came in the 1991 Cotton Bowl, with Miami winning 46-3. We expect this one to be much closer; however, we’re going with Miami to take the title.
There you have our Early 2026 College Football Playoff Projections here at Last Word On College Football. We’ll be back soon with the rest of the bowl line-up.
Main Photo: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images
