Good Bets For the College Football Playoffs
#9 Oregon
Current odds: 79%
Now, we get into the fun part. Oregon sits at ninth in the initial CFP rankings, but it hasn’t really beaten anyone yet. In the lone test, the Ducks fell at home to Indiana. Northwestern is the best team Oregon has beaten to this point, for reference.
Oregon is talented and well-coached, but we just don’t know how good this team is. These next few games will show us. This week, the Ducks travel to Iowa in a ranked matchup. Next week, it’s Minnesota, which is just outside the top 25 itself. After that, the Ducks end the season with back-to-back Pac-12 legacy rivalry games vs. USC and at Washington. Both the Trojans and Huskies have slim CFP hopes. Upsetting Oregon would go quite a way to impress the committee.
Winning out is the easiest path for Oregon. Ideally, Oregon needs to win three of four. If it beats Iowa and Minnesota, but loses to USC and Washington, it will not have the respect as a three-loss team.
This week: at #20 Iowa (6-2, 4-1)
#21 Michigan
Current odds: 72%
Michigan has been bobbing up and down in the “are they for real” and “they’re washed” conversations. Led by another top-tier defense, the Wolverines have clawed their way back into the picture. There is no good time for an injury, but if there were, it would be now. Superstar running back Justice Haynes has been knocked out for an extended period of time due to an injury, but Jordan Marshall has shown he can step up in relief.
Michigan’s path is clear: win out and you’re in. After the bye, Michigan gets to face Northwestern and Maryland. However, the Wolverines are in the same boat as Oregon in the sense that they haven’t beaten many good teams. They shut down Washington in a convincing 24-7 win, but other than that, who is the best team in the win column?
It’s very likely Michigan is going to head into that final week at home against Ohio State with the knowledge that a win punches its ticket.
This week: Idle
#19 USC
Current odds: 70%
What is USC? On one hand, the Trojans beat up on Michigan. On the other hand, they fell to Illinois the week after the Illini were trounced, 62-10. One way or another, USC’s path to the CFP has been set. As with the others, the Trojans need to win out.
This week, Northwestern comes to the Coliseum. Next week, it’s Iowa’s turn. Then, a trip to Oregon with an opportunity to make a statement before the classic UCLA matchup. A loss to Oregon might not completely eliminate USC, but it would need to pray for chaos.
This week: vs Northwestern (5-3, 3-2)
