College Playoff Long Shots
Illinois
Current odds: 49%
Illinois entered this year as a popular pick to be the fourth Big Ten team to make it. Now, its hopes are on life support. With three losses – three bad losses, even – the Illini have no choice but to win out. After this week’s bye, Illinois gets Maryland, Wisconsin, and Northwestern.
Winning out doesn’t guarantee anything. That win over USC will only be impressive if the Trojans win out as well. The issue will be those ugly losses. Combined, Illinois lost to Indiana, Ohio State, and Washington by a score of 139 to 51.
This week: Idle
#20 Iowa
Current odds: 31%
The lone Big Ten team ranked by the College Football Playoff committee that wasn’t in the AP Poll, Iowa, has been odd this year. Led by another strong defensive unit, the Hawkeyes have won three in a row. Losses to Iowa State and Indiana are not the end of the world, but how long can Iowa get by without a real offense?
If Iowa can upset Oregon, we can have some serious conversations. After the Ducks, Iowa faces USC before ending the year with Michigan State and Nebraska. Iowa is not getting in with three losses. The Hawkeyes will have to win each of their final four matchups to qualify. They’re not technically eliminated with a loss to Oregon, but it would be about as close as possible.
This week: vs #9 Oregon (7-1, 4-1)
#23 Washington
Current odds: 18%
Washington has two losses this year. Its dynamic offense was stifled in both games against Ohio State and Michigan, so that will be part of the conversation against the Huskies getting in. However, with games against Wisconsin, Purdue, UCLA, and Oregon left, it could get interesting. While the odds sit at a meager 18%, could a three-loss Washington team make it? It’s unlikely, especially if that third loss is in the final week. Recency bias is a helluva drug. However, if Washington wins out, it could sneak in.
This week: at Wisconsin (2-6, 0-5)
