After a Week 5 that saw the ACC and Pac-12 pictures become clearer, the College Football Playoff scenario remains nearly identical to prior weeks. We will see teams get their sixth wins this coming weekend, locking up bowl eligibility. While bowl season seems an eternity away, we are nearly half way through the season. After a week that created separation at the top of conferences, here are the LWOS Bowl Projections Week 5.
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
CFP Semifinal
#1 Alabama vs. #4 Washington
Fiesta Bowl
CFP Semifinal
#2 Ohio State vs. #3 Clemson
National Championship Game
#1 Alabama vs. #2 Ohio State
Washington and Clemson made the biggest impacts in Week 4, but in very different ways.
While at home, both teams got victories over Top 10 teams. Clemson won an instant classic 42 – 36 over Louisville, whereas Washington proved the hype is real with a 44 – 6 dismantling of then number seven Stanford. The Huskies were superior in every facet of the game, and have cemented their spot atop the Pac-12. With the rest of the conference slate looking very manageable, Washington needs to run the table to leave no doubt in the College Football Playoff Committee’s minds as to whether they belong or not.
Louisville and Houston will be the teams to cause problems for Power Five teams. I still think the Big 12 has played itself out of the playoff already. This leaves the ACC, Pac-12, and Houston to slug it out over those final two spots.
Clemson can win the ACC with a loss, as they own the tiebreaker over Louisville. Florida State looks like a win for the Tigers given their play in conference thus far.
The national implications could not be higher when Louisville visits Houston on November 17. Houston can stake a claim to the CFP if they beat the Cardinals. If Louisville beats the Cougars, they have a very legitimate shot of getting in as a one-loss team. If the loser of Ohio State and Michigan the very next week also finishes with one loss, we will have our first major chaos scenario in the CFP era.
New Years Six Bowls
Rose Bowl
Michigan vs. Stanford
Allstate Sugar Bowl
Oklahoma vs. Tennessee
Capital One Orange Bowl
Louisville vs. Wisconsin
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
Texas A&M vs. Houston
Explanation
I’m leaving Stanford in the Rose Bowl as a replacement team for Pac-12 champion Washington. The defenses that Stanford will face the rest of the way should allow them to get back in the groove offensively. If the Cardinal can’t get their act together and they drop another game, they will concede a New Year’s Six and fall in line with the rest of the conference.
Tennessee and Texas A&M will find out who will slide in behind Alabama as the second best option for the SEC in the playoff hunt. If the Tide holds sway and beats both the Vols and Aggies, they will likely have jumped their toughest hurdles on the way to a national title repeat.
Tennessee or Texas A&M could fill the Sugar Bowl slot, but if the Volunteers win the SEC East they will make a compelling case as the SEC representative. A potential rematch of last year’s two overtime classic in Knoxville awaits if Oklahoma comes out of the Big 12. I think they do.
Imagine the hype around a Texas A&M/Houston matchup in the Cotton Bowl. This game will sellout no matter who the combatants are, but given the offensive prowess of Houston, and how defensively smothering the Aggies are, this could be one for the ages.
Bowl Season Projections
Outback Bowl
Big Ten vs. SEC
Minnesota vs. Missouri
TaxSlayer Bowl
SEC vs. ACC/Big Ten/Notre Dame
Ole Miss vs. North Carolina
Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl
SEC vs. ACC/Big Ten/Notre Dame
Florida vs. Nebraska
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC
Michigan State vs. Arkansas
Hyundai Sun Bowl
ACC/Notre Dame vs. Pac-12
Florida State vs. Utah
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Big 12 vs. SEC
Texas vs. Georgia
Arizona Bowl
Mountain West vs. Sun Belt
Nevada vs. UL-Lafayette
Valero Alamo Bowl
Big 12 vs. Pac-12
Baylor vs. UCLA
Belk Bowl
ACC vs. SEC
Virginia Tech vs. Auburn
Birmingham Bowl
AAC vs. SEC
Tulsa vs. Army *
AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl
Big 12 vs. SEC
TCU vs. LSU
Foster Farms Bowl
Big Ten vs. Pac-12
Indiana vs. California
Russell Athletic Bowl
ACC vs. Big 12
Miami (FL) vs. Oklahoma State
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
ACC/Notre Dame vs. Big Ten
Notre Dame vs. Maryland
Cactus Bowl
Big 12 vs. Pac-12
Kansas State vs. Colorado
Holiday Bowl
Big Ten vs. Pac-12
Penn State vs. USC
Military Bowl
AAC vs. ACC
UConn vs. NC State
Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl
Big Ten vs. C-USA
Texas Tech * vs. Western Kentucky
Camping World Independence Bowl
ACC vs. SEC
Georgia Tech vs. South Carolina
Quick Lane Bowl
ACC vs. Big Ten
Pitt vs. Iowa
St. Petersburg Bowl
AAC vs. ACC
USF vs. Wake Forest
Hawai’i Bowl
C-USA vs. Mountain West
Old Dominion vs. Air Force
Dollar General Bowl
MAC vs. Sun Belt
Western Michigan vs. Georgia Southern
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
AAC vs. Big 12
Navy vs. West Virginia
Popeyes Bahamas Bowl
C-USA vs. MAC
Southern Mississippi vs. Ohio
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
MAC vs. Mountain West
Toledo vs. Utah State
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
BYU vs. Mountain West
BYU vs. San Diego State
Marmot Boca Raton Bowl
AAC vs. C-USA
Cincinnati vs. Marshall
Miami Beach Bowl
AAC vs. MAC
Temple vs. Northern Illinois
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
C-USA vs. Sun Belt
Middle Tennessee vs. Appalachian State
AutoNation Cure Bowl
AAC vs. Sun Belt
Memphis vs. Troy
Raycom Media Camellia Bowl
MAC vs. Sun Belt
Central Michigan vs. South Alabama
Las Vegas Bowl
Mountain West vs. Pac-12
Boise State vs. Arizona State
Gildan New Mexico Bowl
C-USA vs. Mountain West
Louisiana Tech vs. UNLV
Explanation
While I haven’t been able to fit them in so far, the Eastern Michigan Eagles have quietly gone 4 – 1 to start the season. They have dates with Toledo and Ohio in the next two weeks to see if they are truly in contention to make their first bowl since the 1987 California Bowl (their only bowl game) and turn around a truly abysmal 1-11 campaign from a year ago.
Florida State dropped a home shocker to UNC. A last second 54-yard field goal sealed the deal for the Heels, and has dropped the Seminoles to 0-2 in the ACC.
After starting the season as CFP favorites, Florida State finds themselves in the regular ACC pecking order. Louisville, Clemson, Miami and UNC will land ahead of the Noles when the dust settles if their defense does not step it up.
* = Replacement team
