Technically, the College Football Playoff begins with the Rose and Sugar Bowls on January 1, 2015. In reality, the playoffs have already begun. Week 11 features several de facto elimination games: Ohio State @ Michigan State; Kansas State @ TCU; Notre Dame @ Arizona State; and Oregon @ Utah (particularly for Utah). Alabama faces elimination at night at Death Valley also, while many of its SEC counterparts engage in scrimmages against the likes of Tennessee-Martin (ahem, Mississippi State). We will pick the key games across the nation this week, beginning…now.
| Last Week: | 5-5 | (.500) |
| Season: | 68- 32 | (.680) |
2014 Week 11 CFB Game Picks
Baylor @ Oklahoma (Saturday, November 8th, 12:00 p.m., FOXS1)
This looked like the Big-XII game of the year in the preseason. Turns out we had the week right, but the game wrong. Baylor is still in the running for the CFP, but must win this game to remain that way. The Bears’ defense has been too shaky this year to bet on. Gimme the Sooners at home.
Pick: Oklahoma 45, Baylor 33
Kansas State @ TCU (Saturday, November 8th, 7:30 p.m., FOX)
This game is for the conference lead between two of the biggest (pleasant) surprise teams in the nation. Kansas State is unbeaten in Big-12 play, but the road ahead is brutal. TCU is currently well positioned to be in the CFP conversation if it wins out, and it has more of its tough games in the rearview mirror. The Frogs are also at home, where they will get the win.
Pick: TCU 31, Kansas State 27
Alabama @ LSU (Saturday, November 8th, 8:00 p.m., CBS)
LSU has improved steadily this season, growing up quickly in the brutally tough SEC West. CFB fans know what a house of horrors Death Valley can be under the lights, but Alabama’s 2014 team is just better than its opponent’s roster. The key concern will be with Bama’s ability to protect Blake Sims, but the bet here is that the gameplan will do enough to put him in a position to succeed. This will be the toughest of the three remaining stiff challenges that await the Crimson Tide.
Pick: Alabama 20, LSU 14
Notre Dame @ Arizona State (Saturday, November 8th, 3:30 p.m., ABC)
If you expected ASU to be the higher-ranked team for this game, raise your hand. If your hand is up, put it down and stop lying to yourself. The Sun Devils are another of those better-than-we-thought teams, despite giving up 62 at home a few weeks against UCLA. Here’s another stat to consider, unearthed by our Tony Siracusa in his Week 11 preview piece: Notre Dame is just 2-5 in the week following its game against Navy over the past seven seasons. The Forks are a terrible matchup for the things ND does well. I don’t expect this one to be all that close.
Pick: Arizona State 35, Notre Dame 14
Ohio State @ Michigan State (Saturday, November 8th, 7:00 p.m., ABC)
The B1G ‘Game of the Year’ is finally here. Both teams are playing well, and will be worthy of a CFP slot should one of them win out. Which one has the inside track? Gotta be Michigan State, with a superior OOC schedule, and without a horrendous home loss against a sub-par Virginia Tech team. Sparty is at home this week, so expect that stout defense to slow J.T. Barrett enough for Connor Cook and the MSU offense to outscore the Buckeyes.
Pick: Michigan State 28, Ohio State 20
Oregon @ Utah (Saturday, November 8th, 10:00 p.m., ESPN)
Tough beat for the Utes last weekend at Arizona State. Oregon finally got the tree monkey off its back last week at home, and moved into one of the projected CFP spots at #4 in this week’s rankings. Rice-Eccles is a tough place for opposing teams to play, but Utah’s offense isn’t consistent enough to keep up with the motivated Ducks, irrespective of which QB it plays.
Pick: Oregon 42, Utah 28
Michigan @ Northwestern (Saturday, November 8th, 3:30 p.m., ESPN2)
This week’s “don’t wager on it unless you can afford to lose the money” game will be played in Evanston. Nostradamus wouldn’t touch this one, so why am I picking it? Masochism, I guess. When you have no idea who will win a college football game, go with the team playing at home.
Pick: Northwestern 28, Michigan 10
Georgia @ Kentucky (Saturday, November 8th, 12:00 p.m. ESPN)
Georgia played flat against Florida last week in Jacksonville, and got its head handed to it, in perhaps the biggest surprise amongst all of Week 10’s games. Kentucky won’t sneak up on the Dawgs, but it won’t have to. Mark Stoops’ crew is looking for a big conference win. Look for the ‘Cats to get it done at home this week.
Pick: Kentucky 28, Georgia 17
UCLA @ Washington (Saturday, November 8th, 7:00 p.m., FOXS1)
UCLA had a huge win at home last week to remain in the PAC-12 South title race. Washington represents a huge trap game for the Bruins, who appeared to have regained their footing after an up-and-down start. This game feels like it could go either way, given all of the various motivations at play. I like Jim Mora’s Alma Mater to beat Jim Mora’s current team in Husky Stadium in this week’s upset special.
Pick: Washington 24, UCLA 13
West Virginia @ Texas (Saturday, November 8th, 3:30 p.m., FOXS1)
West Virginia was thisclose to knocking off #7 TCU last weekend in Morgantown. The Eers have a very good team, and are enjoying a bounce-back season for Coach Dana Holgorsen, which he desperately needed for his job security. Texas is still two wins away from bowl-eligibility, and needs a win this weekend to have a reasonable shot at playing in the post-season. This game will come down to who wants it more. I expect Coach Strong’s squad to rise up and get it done.
Pick: Texas 28, West Virginia 25
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