Another tough week in the books for me after going two wins and three losses in week five, bringing my record to a disappointing 7-8-1 on the year. It was a bad week for the Las Vegas casinos as the favorites went 10-4 against the spread (Vegas usually makes a pile of money when the underdogs are covering as the general betting public likes to ride the favorites). Water always finds its level and the underdog train is about to come cashing very soon, and I am going to continue chasing the dog.
Through a season there will be many ups and downs, but if you can beat Vegas at a clip of 58% or above (the magic number all professional gamblers attain to achieve) you can make a killing against the bookie. Let’s see how we can help get you back on track this Sunday in week six in the NFL:
NFL Week 6 Picks Against the Spread
1) MINNESOTA VIKINGS -1 (Detroit at Minnesota)
All the stars seem to be aligning here for the Vikings to pull off the win against their divisional rival Detroit Lions. Not only will the Vikings be getting Teddy Bridgewater back at quarterback, but the Lions are decimated with injuries. Both running backs Reggie Bush and Joique Bell are questionable for Sundays tilt. Bush is still fighting through an ankle distress while Bell will probably play, despite a recent concussion. Calvin Johnson, the greatest receiver in the NFL, is highly doubtful this week as his high ankle sprain isn’t healing as fast as he wants. The Lions know that they are not even close to the same team without Johnson, and have no choice but to sit the Pro Bowl star and plan long term.
The Vikings may not be a sexy team, but they are one of the most underrated teams in the league as they have a very solid defense, and the team seems to respond under Bridgewater. Historically, a team has a huge rebound game after a Thursday night blowout.
I fully expect Stafford to struggle to get the chains moving against the purple people eaters, as the Vikings win a close affair.
*Minnesota 21 Detroit 17*
2) MIAMI DOLPHINS +3.5 (Green Bay at Miami)
This is a perfect let-down game for Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers after that huge Thursday win. Media has been blasting us non-stop for ten days on how the Packers are back and ready to contend for the Super Bowl. Reality though, is that the Packers may be playing better, but they have many holes still that need major patching. On the defensive side of the ball they are having a hard time stopping the run.
Look for Lamar Miller to have a breakout game as they expose the Packers pylon linebackers and weak secondary. Coach Philbin knows everything that makes Rodgers tick after coaching him. Now, don’t get me wrong–you can’t stop him, but any edge in slowing him down will go a long way in pulling the upset. With almost 85% of the public all over the Packers in this game, it’s a great opportunity to ‘fade the public’.
Miami 24 Green Bay 21
3) BUFFALO BILLS +3.5 (New England at Buffalo)
I love how the public (and the media) all overreact. Before week five we were hearing how the Patriots were done, and there was even talks of how Tom Brady was on the way out. As mentioned in last weeks article there was a huge opportunity to hop on board the Patriots wagon, as a pissed off Brady with a chip on his shoulders is pure money. Now, after the dismantling of the last undefeated team, the Cincinnati Bengals, everyone is ready to anoint Brady and the Patriots once again.
Time to Zig as everyone else just zagged. They still have issues, and will be facing a hungry and ferocious bills defense. Before Sunday, the advance line had this as a pickem game. Don’t over think this one, as Buffalo wins this one outright.
*Buffalo 27 New England 23*
4) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -8 (Dallas at Seattle)
I usually do not like to wager on a team that is laying chalk of more than a touchdown, but Seattle appears to be the right side here. Everyone is well aware of Seattle’s home field advantage and the power of the ‘12th man’. The Seahawks are almost unstoppable at home, and not just straight up, but against-the-spread as well, going 27-10 as home favorites since 2007.
Dallas is probably the second biggest fraud of a 4-1 team I have seen in quite a while. Tony Romo is playing well and the running game is firing on all cylinders as DeMarco Murray is a beast this year, but this team is definitely not elite, and the true Cowboys team will be brought to light this Sunday. People have soon forgotten how the 2013 Cowboys defense was historically one of the most inept of all time. Russell Wilson will incinerate the Dallas secondary all day long. I expect the game to be close until the second half and then the Seahawks to cruise to a double digit victory.
*Seattle 31 Dallas 17*
5) NEW YORK GIANTS +3 (New York at Philadelphia)
As I mentioned about Dallas being the second biggest fraud 4-1 team above—the biggest fraud being the Philadelphia Eagles. The team is in absolute disarray. The O-line has been hit with multiple injuries and they are almost turning to the water boy to suit up for the game. Not enough public attention ever gets placed on the importance of an offensive line. With no protection the quarterback has no time to set up in the pocket, and the run game never gets going, hence the major struggles this season from LeSean ‘Shady’ McCoy.
The Eagles were very lucky to pull out wins against the Colts and Redskins. They needed a fourth quarter surge to beat the lowly Jaguars and barely survived a comeback scare from the Rams with a third string QB. The Giants are the superior team here and should win this outright. The emergence of rookie Odell Beckham has now given multiple targets for Eli Manning to work with. Road teams in this divisional matchup are 10-4 in the previous 14 meetings, and this trend looks to continue in primetime Sunday night. Look for two touchdowns by the rookie Beckham in a Giants victory.
*New York Giants 27 Philadelphia 21*
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