Welcome to Puck Drop Preview 2014-15, where our hockey department gives you a detailed look at each team from around the NHL leading to the start of this hockey season and offers our insight and analysis. Makes sure to stick around until the end of the series, where we’ll offer our full predictions for the standings in each division, and eventually our collective LWOS 2014-15 Stanley Cup pick. You can check out all our articles on our Puck Drop Page. Today we bring you the Arizona Coyotes.
Last Season:
Following a Western Conference final appearance in 2011-12 with a disappointing 10th place finish the next year prompted GM Don Maloney to be a little bit more proactive than usual during the offseason to augment his club, and hopefully get them back into playoff contention.
He added Thomas Greiss to shore up the goaltending behind starter Mike Smith and made a big splash by signing center Mike Ribeiro to a 4-year, $22 million contract. The gamble paid off in Greiss, as the German netminder posted career-best numbers in limited action (25 games), to help compensate for a less than stellar season by Smith.
However, the Ribeiro signing could not have backfired any worse. Expected to lead the offense, Ribeiro produced just 16 goals and 47 points in 8o games, numbers comparable to what he posted in a lockout-shortened 48 games with Washington in 2013, to finish 5th on the Coyotes in scoring. To make matters worse, personal issues with his marriage resulted in an unfocused player who missed meetings and team buses while sporting a combative attitude in the locker room.
While Ribeiro can’t be entirely blamed for what happened to him on the ice last season, it’s clear in retrospect that his time with the Coyotes was a mistake, one that (spoiler alert) won’t be repeated this year.
However, the finger can’t really be pointed squarely at Smith or Ribeiro for the Coyotes shortcomings last season. More than anything, the team as a whole had difficulties with consistency. When the offense was going, the defense and goaltending routinely let them down. When Smith was on his game, the goals were nowhere to be found. The power play was quite strong (19.9%, 4th in the NHL), while the penalty kill was often a disaster (79%, 26th in the NHL).
Additionally, blown leads were a story all season long for the Coyotes. Their .697 winning percentage when leading after the second period was the third worst in the league (better than only the Sabres and Islanders). Their .289 winning percentage when outshooting the other team was 29th.
Then there were the streaks. A 9-3-2 record in October had them near the top of the West, but the team suffered through a horrible 19-game stretch at the end of December and into January which saw them win just 5 games (only 3 of which were in regulation). Then, they followed up a February in which they won just 2 of 6 with a very strong 9-3-1 run in the middle of March.
By the 29th of March, the Coyotes were in control of their own destiny, sitting 7th in the West and with a playoff spot comfortably in their grasp. Unfortunately, and to nobody’s surprise if they’d been paying attention to how hot and cold this team ran last year, the Coyotes managed only one win over their final eight contests (thanks in no small part to a season-ending injury to Smith, who had finally been playing well prior to going down) to finish two points behind the Dallas Stars for the final playoff berth in the West. For the second consecutive season, the Coyotes were again out of the post-season picture.
Puck Drop Preview: 2014-15 Arizona Coyotes
Offseason Changes:
Aside from the re-branding of the club from the Phoenix Coyotes to the Arizona Coyotes, the team won’t look too different this year than it did last year, with the notable exception of a few big-name forwards skipping town.
Maloney and head coach Dave Tippett are admittedly two of the best in the business at maximizing success while struggling through financial restraints. Both were retained, but given the fact that new ownership is finally in place, the leash may have shortened for both this offseason. The team probably needed some big moves after a disappointing finish but, for the most part, Maloney merely tinkered.
The Coyotes did well in the draft to snag big scoring winger Brendan Perlini of the Niagra IceDogs with the 12th overall pick, though he won’t be expected to debut on the big club just yet. The biggest move of the offseason for the Coyotes came just after the draft, when they acquired Sam Gagner and B.J. Crombeem from the Tampa Bay Lightning in exchange for a 6th round pick.
Though it seems like Gagner has been around the league forever, he’s still only 25 and has been a consistent 15-goal, 40-point scorer so far in his career. He won’t be expected to lead the offense in Arizona and will likely never live up to the offensive expectations he had coming out of junior, but he’s a nice addition to the top six.
However, the Coyotes weren’t as lucky in free agency. They managed to bring in a couple of third-string goalies in Devan Dubnyk and Mike McKenna, as well as a few depth players like Joe Vitale and Alexandre Bolduc (for a second stint with the team), as well as re-signing David Moss.
Those are all solid depth moves, but they do nothing to offset Arizona’s losses. Greiss is gone to Pittsburgh, Ribeiro was bought out by the team and ultimately signed with Nashville, while Radim Vrbata, one of the best snipers on the club, signed with Vancouver. Enforcer Paul Bissonnette, forward Jeff Halpern, and defenseman Derek Morris were also left unsigned by the club. While Gagner should help replace Ribeiro at center, Dubnyk is a notable downgrade in goal, while the hole left by Vrbata is yet to be filled, although a full season from Martin Erat could help.
2014-15 Lineup Projection:
With Ribeiro and Vrbata missing from the top six, it’s clear that there’s going to be some line-juggling from what we saw last season. Gagner will likely be given the second line center role to start, as the team hopes to take advantage of his offense (not to mention that fact that he isn’t really suited for a checking role). That slides Martin Hanzal down to the third line, a duty he is more than capable of, while leaving the fourth line center spot for Joe Vitale.
In truth, the team has good depth down the middle, but the wings will be a question mark. Mikkel Boedker and Shane Doan both had solid (if unspectacular) seasons last year, and their spots in the top six seem assured. However, the jury is out on Lauri Korpikoski and Erat (as well for Kyle Chipchura for that matter) on whether or not they can sustain enough offense in the top six, and there might be room for rookies such as Max Domi (who can play wing), Lucas Lessio, or Perlini to force themselves into the roster.
Mikkel Boedker – Antoine Vermette – Shane Doan
Lauri Korpikoski – Sam Gagner – Martin Erat
Kyle Chipchura – Martin Hanzal – David Moss
Brandon McMillan – Joe Vitale – B.J. Crombeen
(Rob Kinkhammer)
To call the D-corps in Arizona unheralded would be an understatement. The group will again be led by Oliver Ekman-Larsson, who has emerged as a legitimate all-star on the blueline, and Keith Yandle, who finished first in team scoring last year, but has some defensive deficiencies because of his focus on offense. Zbynek Michalek will join Yandle as a veteran presence, because the rest of the group is pretty green on NHL experience (David Schlemko is the most experienced, with 187 NHL games). Expect top-prospect Brandon Gormley to get a long look for a spot after a solid AHL season last year in Portland.
Oliver Ekman-Larsson – Zbynek Michalek
Keith Yandle – Michael Stone
David Schlemko – Connor Murphy
(Chris Summers)
Smith will have to shoulder more of the load this season than last, because Dubnyk won’t provide the same stability as a back-up that Greiss did. While Smith wasn’t awful last season, he did suffer through injury, inconsistency, and league-average numbers. That’s a far cry from his brilliant 2011-12 season, when he finished 4th in Vezina voting. How he bounces back this season may go a long way to determining the fate of the Coyotes.
Dubnyk will likewise be looking to bounce back and prove that he still belongs in the NHL. His role as back-up isn’t assured at this point and Mark Visentin is knocking on the door. Visentin has been the team’s top prospect in goal for a while now, but has struggled to find consistency as a pro after a brilliant OHL career. Hopefully he can turn that around this year, as he’s the number one call-up in case of injury.
Mike Smith
Devan Dubnyk
(Mark Visentin)
Players To Watch:
- Oliver Ekman-Larsson: The time has come to officially take the “underrated” tag off of “OEL” and praise him for the superstar defensemen he has become. The Coyotes struggled to score last season, but Ekman-Larsson put up career highs in goals (15), assists (29), and points (44) to finish 7th in team scoring, and 14th overall among all defensemen in the NHL. Arizona is going to need at least that level of offense again, especially with two of their leading scorers now gone from the team. Ekman-Larsson is more than just offense though, as he plays a solid two-way game. He’s undoubtedly one of the keys to the Coyotoes playoff hopes in 2014-15.
- Mike Smith: Another key is of course Smith, the team’s 32-year-old starting goaltender. As mentioned before, Smith was quite inconsistent last year and had difficulty showing that Vezina-quality form. While most observers don’t give wins much credit, goaltenders certainly do and the 27 he had last year in 62 games (compared to 38 three years ago) just isn’t going to cut it. Due to that lack of offense, the Coyotes are likely going to be in many close games this season (only 17 of the Coyotes 37 wins last year came by two or more goals) and Smith can’t afford to be giving up an extra goal every other game. For 2014-15, Arizona will live and die on Smith’s shoulders.
- Sam Gagner: Gagner is an interesting case and one to watch merely because his offensive ceiling and true potential is still unknown. After a monster junior season, Gagner jumped straight to the NHL as an 18-year-old and produced well in his rookie season (49 points). He stayed at that level of production for a few years, but wasn’t able to ascend up the scoring charts due to some injuries, as well as getting pushed down the depth chart in Edmonton as a plethora of high draft picks joined the team. What can he do in Arizona, in a top-six role? One thing is for sure, Gagner has proven to be good for 10-15 goals and around 40-45 points per season and the Coyotes will give him every opportunity to improve on those totals.
On The Rise:
- Mikkel Boedker
- Michael Stone
- Lucas Lessio
Boedker is one of those players that seems like he’s been around forever (he’s played more than 300 NHL games), but is finally seeming to understand what it takes to be a consistent offensive contributor. Last season, the 24-year-old broke out, netting 19 goals and 32 assists for 51 points – all career highs. That was good for a second place tie in team scoring (with Vrbata), and just two points shy of Yandle in first. Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, but Boedker is going to be key to the offense in Phoenix. He certainly seems to be trending up, and the 20-goal, 60-point plateaus shouldn’t be out of reach for him.
Like Boedker, Stone is also 24 and also seems to be finally putting it all together at the NHL level. Since being drafted out of the Calgary Hitmen back in 2008, Stone has bounced around between junior, the AHL, and the NHL before finally sticking with the Coyotes for good. He hasn’t disappointed in two full seasons on the big club, and improve on his rookie campaign with nine goals and 21 points last season as a sophomore. It’s highly likely that he will be partnered with either Ekman-Larsson or Yandle, so expect another step forward for Stone this season.
Lessio is a bit of an unknown outside of Arizona. His 2012-13 season was cut short due to a hand injury that likely kept him from representing Canada at the IIHF World Junior Championships. However, 2013-14 could not have been more opposite, as Lessio made a seamless transition to the AHL, and put up 29 goals and 54 points in 69 games for Portland, as well as appearing for a quick three game cup of coffee with the Coyotes. It was a solid rookie season in the professional ranks and the 21-year-0ld Lessio looks like he will make an even larger NHL impact this season.
On The Decline:
- Shane Doan
- Martin Erat
- Zbynek Michalek
If you’re a long-time Coyotes fan this might be painful to read, but Doan looks like his career is quickly winding down. What the 37-year-old has meant to the franchise is undeniable, but he just can’t bring the offense on a consistent basis anymore and injuries are beginning to take their toll as well. Since scoring a career-high 78 points back in 2007-08, Doan has seen his numbers regress to the point where 20 goals and 50 points out of him would be considered an excellent season at this point. While those numbers aren’t necessarily bad, within the context of a Coyotes forward group desperate for offense, it’s just not good enough for a first-liner. Doan will get his opportunities and his fair share of points, but the player he once was is all but gone.
Erat has had a pretty rough go of it lately. After being deemed expendable by Nashville in a trade that saw prospect Filip Forsberg head back the other way, Erat struggled mightily in Washington. There were a variety of reasons, but the 33-year-old Czech native didn’t help his cause very much when he scored only two goals in 66 games as a Capital over parts of two seasons. He finished last season with Arizona and notched just 2 goals and 5 points in 17 games. It seems as though after eight consecutive seasons of 49 or more points, Erat seems to have completely fallen off a cliff offensively. He may get his scoring touch back playing alongside Gagner, but that seems a long shot at best .
As for Michalek, it’s not so much his performance that has taken a nosedive, but his health. Once known as a workhorse (from 2005-2009 he missed only 7 games), it seems that the big defender has been taken down by the injury bug again and again in recent years. He’s still only 31 years old, but they’ve been a hard 31 years for this shot-blocking ace, and all those years are adding up quickly. Never known as a dynamic offensive threat, he nonetheless seems to have taken a step backwards in that regard as well. He can still play a role on the Coyotes blueline, and likely provide quality minutes while he’s there, but actually keeping him in the lineup for a full 82 game season will be the problem.
Season Expectations:
The Coyotes have earned their reputation as the kings of “boring hockey”, and this year will be no different. The team’s two biggest stars, Ekman-Larsson and Yandle, will again lead the team from the back-end and will be crucial for not only their defensive contributions, but for what they can do to help ignite Arizona’s offense.
Therein lies the rub; this team is going to have a stiff challenge to put the puck in the back of the net with any regularity. The team will rely heavily on the top two lines, but it will have to be scoring by committee yet again, as the team still lacks a superstar talent up front and the depth is not as strong as it once was.
As mentioned before, the player who will bear the ultimate brunt of this shortcoming won’t be any of the forwards but rather Smith, who will need to be at his best for the Coyotes to even sniff a wildcard spot.
Which they won’t. Let’s face it, the Pacific division may not have been so fearsome last season, but it’s going to be a dogfight this year. The Ducks, Kings, and Sharks look to have the first three playoff spots wrapped up, while the Canucks aren’t far behind and Edmonton is improving. Instead, the Coyotes will be more likely to fight with Calgary for last place in the division, and maybe in the conference.
That isn’t to say the Coyotes don’t have a hope, any Tippett-coached team does, but it’s going to require an air-tight defense, timely offense, and nearly every player on the roster stepping up to the best of his ability. It’s a long shot, and a third straight season without playoff hockey in the desert seems more likely.
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